Member Info for GSmiley

Unlikely I think. 1. OPAY has a fairly long and solid track record. 2. Skrill which is a bit over 50% of the total has the same and under different management 3. Both have visible, tangible products/services 4. There is real, serious cashflow here. You can misrepresent profit but it is very hard to do the same with cashflow over time. 5. Not that it matters, but I have been invested here since it floated on AIM and I have never smelt anything worrying. GS

This is a health warning. I will not buy shares here for the foreseeable future. Those who know me will recognise I post as I see it. I am posting because I am still haunted at not having posted more strongly about QPP towards the end of RT's reign when the writing was so clearly on the wall. There are people still invested there who are so far underwater they will never see the light of day. This has many of the hallmarks of QPP. Bullish, cronyish BoD. Sexy sounding business plan that is not happening. Loads of buys by directors at prices much higher than today's. ET may be clever, but he bought in support at 5 times today's price. Odey at double. Insti ivnestor support (remember David Serra at QPP anyone?). New CEO (who was already there), appointed. Shock trading update. etc etc etc The list goes on. TUNG deals with a huge chunk of the world's biggest companies. FOR FREE. It provides their suppliers with invoice processing services. FOR FREE. It does this in the hope that they will want to factor their debt and use TUNG to do so. That would be profitable if only more suppliers wanted that. THEY CLEARLY DO NOT. This does not need marketing as they would be queuing up at TUNG's door if they needed the cash. They have not. I thought it was a great idea, I do not anymore. I read people saying this can't go lower (down 10% since then). Shorters are reducing marginally, but the outstanding position is still huge and they seem in no hurry to close... because the sp is falling and will imo fall a long way further. End of rant - if it saves someone some money then - job done.

It is not nice unless you are buying (I am), but I think the best approach is to do something else if you are not. The spread is tight, and when that happens with a falling sp, the mm's are generally trying to fill an order. Turn it around. Good results, strengthened BoD, much more clarity in the numbers and the accounting, positive statement re future trading, good dividend etc etc. This is a real, money making, bricks and mortar sort of business. I use them at my company and they really exist and really do a good job.... Give it a few days and there will be a broker's note, a write up in IC or the FT or somewhere, and RNS with an ii shareholding increase and this will pass. And in the time it has taken to write this the sp has recovered to 168/170 GLS GS

@wolf - maybe to the RNS, but OPAY has already said that they will host a capital markets day on 10th Nov (10 working days away) and that they will issue a trading update at the same time. In their shoes I would do all the other stuff then. FWIW I will be gobsmacked if their update is anything other than good/great. I suspect we will see more rapid (and higher margin) growth than Worldpay and I have a fiver that says they will reveal that they can do better than the $40m cost synergies talked about at the time of the Skrill t/o. @techni - are you going to close your short bet before then? Or did you use that very nice dip yesterday? GLA GS

I am really not trying to be difficult, but the clearest explanation is in the accounts RNS where, in the Consolidated Cash Flow Statement you can see net in and outflows, in detail. The actual figures are: Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year: £15.82m Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year: £6.49m Change in cash and cash equivalents over the year: £9.33m GS

K3 - I know that you are, but do be extra careful here. My view (and others) has changed to one where I am no longer sure there is a money making business here. If there is not, then the sp will just carry on down. You are betting against some very clever, well informed people on the short side. Dangerous place to be and (QPP) it does not necessarily matter if they are wrong.... GL GS

Typical AIM - good results, poor sp performance. If you were trading this share, hopefully you caught the spike this morning. If you are not, then the sp now looks a bit like a top up opp. I think I see the hand of Mr Woodford here. Finally we have a set of accounts without an unpleasant surprise. A decent trading update and another sensible set of figure in 6 months and imo this will be rerated. As to the likelihood of that happening... well (Mr Woodford again) Brin Sheridan seems to have a safe pair of hands and I suspect is on the board now because at least one large ii felt that it needed strengthening. It is not the FD I had hoped for, but if you check out his track record he is financially sound. If it is down to him to deliver the numbers, I think we will get there. So I am still long and increasing at these levels. GLA GS

Actually cash and cash equivalents have dropped by £9.5m (approx) in the year. Not £16m. You can see where this has gone (acquisitions, loan repayments etc) in the flow of Funds statement in the accounts where it is broken out in detail. GS

I would be very worried. The shorts have had ample opportunity to get out, and since most have been there since about 200p it is not as if they have not made a great deal already. For me the worry is that there is a flaw in the TUNG business plan. Which is this. If I am a supplier to someone like GE whose credit rating is rock solid and who may not pay fast (actually they are not bad), but who will pay like clockwork because they are system driven, then why would I discount my invoices to them. Unless I was short of money but in that case I am less likely to be chosen as a supplier by them in the first place. TUNG e-invoicing is a loss leader, which is all very well if there is profitable business coming on behind but I am increasingly coming to the view that there is not enough. Sorry GS

If you are not trading, you will be fine. Just market hiccups. GS

I have never posted here because this bb is somewhat "slow", but I have held MRO since the days of Wassall and am a fan. Correct me if I am wrong, but given: 1. The Elster Deal 2. Any sensible valuation on Brush I think the sp today is at a discount to NAV of about 15%. For a company that has a stunning track record and is about to distribute something very close to the sp in cash to shareholders that should be ridiculous. I think this has to rise between here and distribution day. GLA GS

@Johnny - Kind words but you might have missed less insightful ones elsewhere... :-) Interesting BoD changes announced today. MacKenzie has a terrific track record and understands this space. I therefore doubt that a sale will be on the cards for much longer. The big ii shareholders announced recently are not short term merchants either. At 8p I thought this would not go much lower, and so I bought; it is incredibly hard to call the bottom on shares like this as they can halve overnight on a rumour, but I really think that the odds here look good. It can as easily be a ten bagger as lose the lot and it will be a fun ride. This is an incredibly valuable area of marketing and Rightster has a lead which, if exploited will make it a goldmine. Whatever else, you can be sure it won't be boring.... GLA GS

It is all about timescales. Short term the sp may well drift. But longer term the (highly) likely milestones of good trading update, FTSE entry 250 entry will drive the sp higher. Fundamentals always win in the end. GS

Interesting. I was listening to someone who REALLY knows what they are talking about using the term ADpocalypse. As in "advertising is dead/dying". He maintained that the future of online sales lies in clickable content. That is what Rightster does. I am not saying this share is for widows and orphans (it has fallen about 50% since I posted here last in June, but if it gets it right, then it really does have the potential to multiply its market cap many times before someone like Google buys it out. Woodford would not have taken 10% if he thought it was going to go bust tomorrow or that it was going to be sold for less than its present sp. He makes mistakes like the rest of us, but I guess his risk/reward calculation makes a bet like this look attractive. So I bought a little today, finally, and expect it to go to either 0p or 80p.... :-) GLA GS

It has just been cancelled

@wolf Agreed - I have been banging on about the relative undervaluation of OPAY for some time. I hate hype but this really looks like a share that could/should do your 77% and then some over the next 6-9 months. It will be bought if it does not. Looks like a bit of trading around today but I will take a rise of 5p a day any time. GLA GS

Likewise - many thanks GS

Excellent write up at the w/e as expected. I must be missing something here and have now filled my pockets as far as I am able. Must admit I never expected to see the sp at these levels after the last trading statement. Gross;y undervalued. GS

@Spikey That is the question. (I am doing this all from memory but would check like mad before coming back in) I seem to remember that FIBI was bought for about £30m. I think ET bandied around a value of £60m but (again I think) that might have been because there was some cash in the bank. I remember rather foolishly trying to build a case around a figure of £60m. Well clearly ET may be a brilliant deal maker, but he is not judge of a company's value I think. So I would be inclined to go back to the £30m and then discount that for 1. ET's exuberance when he bought it 2. Any cash that was there will have gone 3. It was supposed to be a completely clean bank - assets cash, no liabilities. Again, I would doubt that is the case today. So, ballpark guesses would be c£20m for an (relatively) unforced sale and no more than half that if the receivers come in. Yuck GS

@HP Agree about ET - drowning if anything. Although Odey is bound to be up to something. Sorry about the car but needs must I suppose.... mine just wants a bigger house (for the grandchildren we have not yet got!!), so she will have wait. Not sure XLM is a life changer, but if it just keeps generating the cash and paying the dividend I will be happy. GS