Member Info for GSmiley

Troll - good sign. GS

Out of interest, why? BB's post seems to be a perfectly valid strategy to me. GS

Could not agree more. XLM will doubtless drift down again but at some stage someone will realise it is a high quality cash machine. And Emr is just one for the sock drawer. Wish all my investments were as worry free... :-) GL GS

I do not have one at present. There are too many potential upsides that could/should happen first. 1. FCA approval of SKRILL t/o is due in 7 days not counting today. I have no more info than anyone else, but I think approval is a dead cert and recent sp movement would suggest that is right. 2. Subject to 4. a main market listing and then FTSE250 entry can also be taken as given. 250 tracker investment is reckoned to be worth around 10% on the sp. 3. I can't quantify this, but leaving AIM means a number of pi's and ii's that simply do not invest on AIM will be interested. 4. Least best option is we get a take-over which will happen (if at all) before.... 5. ...OPAY can show they are both growing organically and realising synergies out of SKRILL in a trading update. Without 4 I think we have to be looking at 350-400p just on newsflow and if the market starts to apply sensible p/e's to what is a very well run, expanding business in a good niche to play, then we should expect well north of 500p. If I can bag from here I may look at taking a slice, but OPAY is flying and could easily go much further than that. As protection I just have one stop loss in place, trailing 20% behind the sp and never going down. I have such a low average that I will have done very well if that is triggered (but I will be surprised/disappointed if it is). All imho of course, and I get my fair share hopelessly wrong. GL GS

Sp is rising, so it is a good time to have a conversation. Excuse me if I am preaching to the converted. As the sp rises you find that you are in profit, even if there is a setback and your stop loss is exercised. As you watch the sp fall towards this point, you have three choices: 1. Sell before the SL is hit 2. Allow the SL to be triggered and executed 3. Move the SL downwards. There is something to recommend options 1&2. Option 3, on the other hand, is a perfectly awful decision although it always seems the most attractive when stop loss levels are reached. Every time my will weakens and I chicken out, I regret it. GL GS

Fraid it is - probably the kiss of death.... However it has been a case in point for prudence though. Bought in the 220's. Sold a chunk at 300-305 (RSI was looking overheated). Stop loss sold the rest at an average of 270 (stupid of me - should have seen the Grexit drop in sp coming a mile off). Reckoned the fall was over cooked and bought back same value as had been sold in the 250 and have about 20% more shares in (imo) a cracking business. Could have done better, but since I am a long term value investor I hold more shares than I did and so am in profit in my terms. So I think the system works. What is key, is that it protects you against big losses which are incredibly hard to recover. Remember that a 50% fall in sp requires the same share to rise by 100% to get you back to where you started. So don't be seduced by people saying that it is not a loss until you realise it. Rubbish. GL GS

I have a very low average because a lot of my shares are running for free having top sliced in the past. Nevertheless, as per previous posts, I think that there is sufficient upcoming (strong) newsflow for the sp to rise well above your entry price so I would think you will be OK. FWIW, one of my golden rules on AIM is never to go all in at the outset. It does not matter how good an investment looks, AIM is a b"tch and day traders and spreadbetters can utterly ruin the best opportunity short term. Start small, never buy on a strong rise, add when it drops your average cost AND it looks as if a fall is either over or overdone. Try to grow your holding organically rather than simply putting on more money and have the objective of running your holding for free.. It is a great target that no one hits very often, but the process will minimise your losses and reduce your sleepless nights. Lots of people will also disagree with the following. I think there is an awful lot of conspiracy rubbish spouted about MM's knocking out stop losses. I religiously live and die with a set of stop losses on my holding starting at 15% below the sp at which I bought. If the sp falls and the s/l is triggered, so be it. I am then out until the stock has definitely turned up again. That would have served you very well here. If the SP rises, that s/l is raised to follow it so I end up with 2/3 s/l's at something like 15, 20 and 25% below the ruling sp, where the lowest is my entry price. Remember that there is never shame in taking a profit and if a triggered s/l gives you a profit, you should smile as 9 times out of 10 you will bank it and have the opportunity to buy back in lower down. GL GS

Oh its nothing! - I always get it right lol lol gulp (NOT). But it is nice when it happens GLA GS

This (and one other share) is my biggest holding. Although I have been in to some degree since OPAY listed, I bought a lot more (for me) between 220-225 because everything I knew about the company was at odds with every technical indicator I could find. So it just seemed grossly oversold/undervalued. 1. For me, the FCA risk is insignificant - the worst will be that they delay by asking for further and better particulars. However they let TUNG buy FIBI bank (a deposit taking institution) and compared to TUNG, OPAY is gold plated as an investment and regulatory risk. 2. SKRILL is a big mouthful for OPAY, but they have bought and integrated businesses before and knocked out the promised synergies before, so I think they are likely to do the same. 3. Leonoff has a history of under-promising in these circumstances so the post SKRILL OPAY may well do better than forecast. 4. I can't remember where I saw it, but my experience suggests the following is true. Entry to the FTSE250 tends to be worth about 10% on the sp. 5. On any comparative exercise OPAY is hopelessly cheap. Compare and contrast with SCH for example. Some of this has to do with its exposure to gambling, but that is both reducing as a proportion of the whole and the gambling market is getting safer as US regulation of online gambling spreads. You can see more if you sift through the XLM bb here. Rivaldo keeps an eye on that sort of stuff and posts reliably over there. 6. My biggest fear right now (nice problem) is that a big financial that wants to break into the PayPal space sees OPAY as an easy stepping stone and gobbles it up before its real value dawns on the market. I hate public sp predictions, but OPAY has hit 500p before and with what is coming down the line plus the rerate it deserves, I am hoping it will do so again. Not entirely risk free, but imvho almost so. GL GS

I think Wolf posted a few days back and summed it up pretty well. Part of OPAy and SKRILL's business is holding third party funds. That makes them quasi banks and so they operate in a very heavily regulated space. So the FCA will go over both with a fine toothcomb. GS

No - it is copyright protected. Here is a detailed gist: XLM has bought 54% stake of digital marketer Marmar (MR) for $5.4m up front and $2m deferred. The business is like XLM's media division but focussed (90%) outside gambling and v strong in mobile. Price is about 6x EBITDA ($2.2m last year) and so is immediately eps enhancing. MR expects sales will rise by 30% in 2015. Cenkos has forecasts $21.5m pretax profit with eps of 9c in 2015 increasing to $27.8m and 11.5c respectively in 2016. If you strip out $33m in the bank that is a prospective PE of 8 which is ridiculous. GS

Techni Early days, but smiling right now. Thanks v. much for the input. Assuming the FCA say OK then 260 will be smashed and it could easily threaten your 290. If 260 goes before the FCA decision then 290 would look easy with FTSE250 membership coming up and the tracker effect. But I think it will need a strong trading statement with positive vibes about Skrill integration to push the sp much beyond that. I think we will get both, so I am with you on avoiding predators as I worry someone may move more quickly for Opay than we would like GS

I think we are due a trading update very soon as well. Last year it was on 17th July and all the indications are that it will be good. Wouldn't it be nice if XLM could hold these gains and begin to rerate to the level where it ought to be. GLA GS

Techni Back to our conversation a few days ago -with all fingers and toes crossed, it look as if we might just have called the bottom. I am with Wolf here - the (likely) newsflow that is now so close will push the sp onards and upwards. If it does, where do you see it stopping? GS

Gary Hate to prejudge, but it does begin to look as if OPAY has turned the corner. Barring market disasters, we may well see your 250 in the next few days at this rate. 2 weeks to FCA approval (at the outside I think). The odds in favour must be enormously in favour as OPAY has been operating in this regulated space for quite some time now; one would think they know the rules and would have had a quiet chat with the regulators already. Assuming that happens, then the sp should carry on upwards. GL GS

Heading towards your 250+... :-) GS

Not sure he said second biggest. This is what he said: "The enlarged Optimal Payments, on completion, will become a leading player in the markets we serve and create additional opportunities for further profitable growth. It will also deliver benefits to our shareholders in the shape of accretive earnings from next year, enhanced liquidity from the intended move to the main market and, in due course, inclusion in the FTSE 250"

Arrrg - "buy"

Top up time I think - sp has taken a rest for a bit. Ridiculous RSI has cooled off and the sp is now trading above the 20 day MA. I don't pay much attention to technicals but when they all point the right way for a share I want to biuy more of anyway, then... why not? GLA GS

Interesting comment from Ardalan (who imo knows what he is talking about) about what would happen if the new tax got in the way for challenger banks. Imo ALD was oversold giving a nice top up opp. Too well run and too light on its feet to suffer in this environment. GLA GS