Member Info for Greend100

Agree AM...
Think some are after the quick buck with Accustem. I know CityTT mentioned the $2.8bn Exact paid, but think that's 2-3 years away before we can get to those levels, and it would be something of a fire sale if it went for the 10% broker valuation. Would prefer they rolled it out, took the placings etc.. as they grow it...it would soon self fund based on unit price and margin. Realise it's true value over the mid term, share price would gradually climb in the interim anyway, and they have Spare in the background if I remember rightly to hit the booster next year...

Well that was a fun week...
I think you were saying out at £5 yesterday Tom, that's a £2 jump in 24 hours ;-)
Personally this is one for the long term and expecting far higher than that, too many things on the go...and that was before Foralumab/Covid endorsement yesterday...
(also really value that they are working for the greater good, if you read BMO3s comments puts some context around why this matters so much...)
In terms of share price, big piece for me, < 200mn shares, of which GC holds a chunk, ATM probably done after volumes this week so no additional shares to the market...I'd hold onto them very tightly...

As for Accustem, I would expect that to gradually increase in value as they can create greater proof points. They must believe fully given the effort to spin off and putting it in front of ASCO (having your homework marked), but if I was buying it, would want greater sample size for statistical validity / reliability. I think there was a c 4k sample size from memory but if you start to cut that by age group, race/ethnicity, previous history, initial treatment, stage of cancer etc... I could see it needing greater sample size before pharma would pay big bucks...however as that takes place over time it is constantly adding incremental value. If we take the very credible findings and institutes involved in validating Stem to date a $280mn valuation seems very light (and finger in the air...10% of what exact paid), it could in time be 3-4bn...however still think it will be sold sooner rather than later and let one of the big guys productise/industrialise it...
In terms of share price, I don't really care what happens in the short term, ramping/de-ramping irrelevant...this won't be valued on sentiment or the activities of pi's, (though it will create volatility), there's too much awareness in the industry...value will come through, whatever happens in the next 1-2 months it's going to be fun...but probably not as much fun as the next 12 months...
This share has made Monday mornings more enjoyable than they used to be!

Been in TILS for 3 months gradually increasing my shares (and average unfortunately), sat on the sidelines, appreciating the informative posts from DCR, Jadam, John Henry, BMo3, AM etc... Genuinely, hats off to you all for your insights and time...a
and a far more civil board than others (yesterday aside ;-)

Just my musings on how things could play out over the next 2-3 weeks...
Probably way off, but how I'm seeing things at the moment...
Can see this climbing to c. £2.50 pre split, seen £2 already so assume it will climb further as interest increases.
Tils reducing to £1-1.2, based on price 3 months back (pre stem interest) plus bit of upside support off the back of stated ndas, patent...
Gives 1.30-1.50 for Stem...which would align with Stem broker valuation of 280mn usd...
(Based on 166mn shares...1.69 usd so c. £1.30 for Stem...)
Expect TILS to fall off as some just in for payday but agree with others that good news on TILS will come through same time, also might be buoyed by end of ATM...(assuming finishes end of July).
Could see a similar news situation with Accustem though to avoid quick sells, so might see details around peer reviews or something similar to help bolster demand in that product so traders aren't just selling out as soon as possible.
I would still expect Accustem to be purchased once further validation achieved, the longer time goes into development the more expensive it would be so in the interest of pharma to expedite a purchase and also Tiziana aren't geared up to industrialise it. Could see a licensing approach as DCR states but as not core to their future can't see that being the preferred route personally.
Picking up on the question from BMO3 last week, personally in it for TILS. My background is immunology/virology but not in this space (parasitology), but the products TILS have in their kit bag are huge and could be real game changers even for a layman like me to see. However, I'm not sure the board are in for a 5-10 year window given their CVs in creating and spinning off / selling businesses so could see them pushing them through big pharma and moving onto other innovations given the time and investment needed for phase 3 devs.

I think the direction this week is a hard one to call...there's clearly positive news going to come through RNS's, footprint, mobile testing etc... Personal view is the Spanish kits will be for Mexico.
I think it was dragged down last week on wider sentiment...cases falling in US and Western Europe, lot of talk about vaccine development by August - highly doubt that...This week we'll start to see an up tick in cases, US 5 day rolling average now moved up again, as has Sweden, Switzerland, expect UK and Italy to follow by the end of this week, so sentiment might change and demand is going to be there in the short to mid term (recognise huge need in Asia and LATAM but don't think they drag sentiment down in the same way as the G7). Key piece though with the market is mid term, hence why IAG had flown this week (pardon the pun), even though running at <5% flights.That is the key outstanding piece on Ncyt, it will fill its boots this year, but where does it go in the mid term. My view, strong mgmt, relationships etc... and would expect cash to be reinvested but need to see what those product streams would be. ...expectation split between trade off of short term success and mid term question mark. My expectation is that they would be acquired in the next 6-12 months, so pretty safe bet.
FWIW, currently averaging £3 will top up if it drops to the £2 level as think it's now oversold.

Reading through messages and worries, thought it would be worth just giving a pause...
1) You had a trial run on Tuesday, share price went up to 90p w/out RNS...so you know it's going to go through that and then some in the next month or two...
2) It's backed by public health England so you'll have a full order book and guaranteed payment...
3) Covid isn't going anywhere...spikes in Germany, South Korea spikes, significant growth in Latin America, India and Russia on the increase. UK will have this for a long time yet...Vaccine min 2 years away... . So unfortunately demand will be there for a good while.
Ignore the noise and the worry...and stop refreshing the share price...we know how it will play out...imho

If we assume a 5% fall in the morning, think we will see £3 tomorrow. Would have to top up and average down given directors investments > £3. Although increased competition no way are these guys standing still...it's a global market...
Having said that, hunch we'll see an RNS in the morning...

Couldn't agree more...
Already in here, but will invest further this week given demand that wasn't fulfilled...ii's will have got a far more detailed picture, and also they buy into CF which matters a lot...

Bought into this a while back, got spooked when it dropped to £3, and sold a 1/3. Then directors purchases came through and promptly bought back in at £3.60....not my finest hour ..,
However...if directors are buying in at £3.10ish they aren't doing it for 10-20% returns, and therefore think this has some way to go yet...might not be news at the moment hence some drift but it will climb again IMHO
Question what happens in 12-24 months, but they will be seen in very much a different light by then...cash, supply chain, partners etc...

I am in here, to quite a significant extent,see some big ticks, but have a few questions I'm still trying to get my head round...thought I'd put them here for views...
On the plus side, wealth of experience, a chairman who has strong commercial acumen and has done it before with other spin offs/sales.Given his background and finances can't imagine he would still be here without seeing vast upside potential.
They wouldn't have put the RNS out on Stemprinter if they weren't confident on it, would damage credibility given their time in the industry.
I suspect it isn't core to their business and if they can spin it off, that would help fund their core business - not cheap to take Foralumab and Milciclib through phase 2/3 of development.
Questions for me are:
1. Would they have to seek funding to maintain current development, diluting share price. I'm doubting it if they sell off Stemprinter quickly, get the comments around risk to Exact so can see it being picked up quickish? Would be good to see annual report to see if any skeletons, yet to unwind in the share price.
2. Does the wider market perceive Stemprinter in the same way - we'll know post conference.
3. In terms of value, who knows. Genomic health were turning over 300+ mn, 800 employees etc... so assume they had wider value beyond OncotypeDX, however looks like it was the key driver.
4. Share price dropped to mid-20s only two months ago, what's driven the change in market sentiment given Stemprinter was under wraps then?
Excited by the opportunity but also not wanting to be naive...reading valued weekend inputs with interest,
GLA and DYOR.