Member Info for Greend100

Hi All,
I was mulling over the DiM potential spin out (think the opportunity is huge), but can't get my head around the practicalities...thought I'd see if others had a view...
DiM has the health data intelligence due to the data collated from numerous challenge studies over the years, and critically, Covid studies going forward. If you spin it out, it's dependent on the continued data intelligence from Open Orphan, although it does in theory enable DiM to collect data from other companies aswell and act as an aggregator with enhanced data mining, but with the data having such value, wouldn't the value lie predominantly in the producer of the data, Open Orphan (Hvivo) rather than DiM?
Anyway, 2nd half about to start...hopefully as good as the first...

I think a lot feel the same Oilcat...I think there is a lot of confidence in the science and the pipeline, which is why we are invested, but a lot of frustration with the board.
It's been well talked about, but my frustrations below:
- Lack of external comms team (don't want them to be dealing with daily queries from investors but need to be visible)
- Lack of Investor Relations team - multiple issues here, well known.
- Lack of business minded CEO, who will drive the business forward, sees the credibility issues and holds the team to account.
- Lack of adherence to timescales
- Spread too thinly
- Lack of clarity on activities - for example, I "think" they are currently doing Ph2 trial with Foralumab for Progressive MS with results due next quarter, but not seen anything announcing its underway.
- No new significant ii's beyond the original 4-5 philanthropic ones from 2-3 years back (who have retained their stake anyway)
- No visibility of GC - nearly Q2 and not seen him appear anywhere this year as yet.
I think they are very much driven by the science progression, and rightfully so, they are looking to contribute more to society than 99.9% of those invested here... but given what's in the pipeline and the positive signs we are seeing there...it needs expediting.
I am in no rush for it to come good... I'm invested due to the science so take the business side for what it is...however, still expect some partnership RNS that blows the SP out of the water, but that could be in 2 months or 2 years...hard to join the dots with limited dialogue...
Anyway, enough of my mumblings....have a good weekend all.

Morning, would be interested to see your rationale for it being too expensive, given the board have previously stated cost of production is very low.
Coupled with that is that you aren't comparing it with a vaccine dose to the population. If it reduces hospitalisation rate / time of bed occupancy, it has a significant cost benefit. Lastly, its primary market is not Covid, but autoimmune diseases. If you can reduce hospitalisation/surgery rates for AI problems such as Crohns or reduce level of social care for progressive MS sufferers, think it's modest production costs won't be a barrier to entry in the market...

They will...I think one of them (can't remember which) is event based, so Accustem would have been the trigger for investing..guess we'll find out the value of that in the coming weeks...
If they paid $5.20 and assume sold at $2-something, given TSLA price in Nov/Dec, would be nice if Accustem was the difference...suspect I might be disappointed on that one mind!

They've both gone Dave...Empery and Altium...good news is those shares have been absorbed into the market and the company have the cash flow...think it was 31st Dec in both cases.

It's another brick in the wall...
We know it will be sold into, but underlying position constantly improving, outlook when results announced is increasingly positive...put in a couple of spin offs, large contracts from China/UK gov, all I need to do is sit on my hands...

In terms of valuation, very much an unknown. As someone mentioned previously, only figure we have is $280mn from HC. Wainwright but that was nothing more than 10% of what Exact sciences paid for Genomic Health 3 years ago.
I'm hoping when they launch, there'll be other positive news. CE marking was due in November so hoping that is done now, and they were also pushing for FDA approval in the US. That would help with momentum post-launch. Would then be interesting if they can state they've launched it in Italy, but may be a bit soon for that.
We know they'll need a fund raise given only $3mn (from memory) has come from TILS, but that's not a bad thing in my view.
Valuation I guess will be down to the usual market considerations, but key for me will be perceived performance (but CE marking / FDA should help with that), ease of replication of the efficacy for competition, and TCO for customers (cost vs benefit of using) to assess market uptake.
Just my thoughts...

Hi Lurking,
Accustem is a prognostic tool, rather than drug. They've developed a multi-gene assay which is, in theory, more accurate than existing tools for assessing best treatment approach following breast cancer (specific types). Improved effectiveness of prognosis means treatment can be better targeted, but also probably a cost element for trusts to ensure investment is used appropriately.

Thought it would be worth just collating some of the news due over the coming weeks...

Covid Trial in Brazil with Foralumab – think position on this is well understood, data on pharmacokinetics of nasally administered Foralumab, immunological biomarkers, stimulation of Tregs and anti-drug antibody (“ADA”) is expected to be reported in a few weeks (based on reports 2nd Feb, so 4-5 weeks into that “few” so can’t be far off). Just hoping they announce plans for wider trial at the same time.

Phase 2 Clinical trial – Progressive Multiple Sclerosis - administered Foralumab, Phase 2a trials were initiated in Q4 2020 for the treatment of MS. Anticipated completion Q2 2021, so 1-3 months to top-line data if Q2.

Phase 1b/2 Clinical Trial - Crohn's Disease: Collaboration with Parexel Biotech to conduct phase 1b/2 clinical trial in patients with Crohn's Disease. Take-home capsules of Foralumab. To be conducted in the United States and several European countries. This clinical study will evaluate the safety, tolerability, and clinical activity of escalating doses of orally administered capsules of Foralumab. The trial is a dose-ranging, open-label study that will enroll 60 patients in the U.S. and Europe. Phase 1 study showed that oral treatment with Foralumab was well-tolerated in healthy volunteers, with no drug-related safety issues even at the highest dose of 5 mg2. Anticipated completion – Q2 2021.

Phase 1 of TZLS-501. Due to start next quarter. Think this will be very compelling giving other Anti-IL6 have shown positive results but we have the benefit of non-IV and fully human, probably the least risky of the products going through clinical trials, but equally the least advanced, and also where alternative treatments coming to the fore.

Initiate Phase 2b in HCC patients with Milciclib in combination with a TKI (Tyrosine-Kinase Inhibitor (TKI), such as Sorafenib or Regorafenib in Q2 2021. Phase 2a completed with 28 evaluated patients, 64% showed clinical benefits.

I think the majority here see a really positive mid/long term picture, it’s the short term that’s proving the pain point, and could see it continue to slide until news lands (issue is that we never know when that will be…, could be news this week, could be news in 2-3 weeks’ time on Covid trial with news on MS likely to follow relatively quickly afterwards…)

Don't tend to comment much on here, largest in portfolio by a distance...but still sleep easy.
Sentiment seems to be drifting back towards the January mindset on here...a relatively disgruntled 2-3 weeks, then, Cathal appeared from the shadows, news kicked in, share price found a new level 20% higher than it was...rinse and repeat...
Invesco I would expect to be out well ahead of mid-May, given news comes through frequently, CF/ii's/Chinese potential purchases...etc...
I won't reel off all the expected news flow in the next couple of months, Trader, Peter, extrader etc... have done so far more eloquently... but each month any vague negatives drop away for me (dependency on CF reducing, bed capacity increasing, local to global outlook...), 10% of my portfolio last March, >70% now...
Right place, right time IMHO...

Hi FFF, less bothered about the Covid data...that could always have been a few weeks from top-line date, would be nice though if it was accompanied by next steps rather than in isolation.
Accustem, a different scenario. I can live with the lack of liquidity, it's more the frustration that they make their lives complicated, dual listings, spin offs, Okyo etc... but don't beef up the resource to support it.
Having said that, having waited this long would rather they listed with accompanying news, CE approval etc... rather than it being a damp squib. Can't decide if it's a potential sale, accreditation or disorganisation causing the delay (noting ADRs have been mentioned as an issue suspect the latter).

You would think the top line data would be announced to co-incide with the Redchip/Bloomberg session, so Monday to build off the PR, but could be wrong...

I agree with you on some of those Spinnaker...
Governance is poor...(as is communication) and
Accustem has been (very) poorly handled...

The business is still behaving in a pre-clinical way (imo), with small number of employees (some key personnel not employees e.g. Dr Weiner and trails through CRO's as you'd expect).
They've stated they are fully funded so cash doesn't seem to be an issue - (personally would rather they sought funding if it could expedite developments).
I don't agree on the point re patents and KS, I think it's GC who runs the show and he's a track record of commercialising so think that is definitely their focus, however don't get the impression they are seeking to do this rapidly (although seeing that improve in last 3-6 months).
I would have thought we'd see a spike when the Brazil data comes out (next couple of weeks?), so if you do want to jump ship, that might be the opportunity?

As others have mentioned, there's no bad news...all going to plan, and a lot of shots at the goal for a small biotech company.

If we look at what's due this year...
- Data from Brazil trial imminent, would expect to be strong given positive headline data.
- Phase 2 larger trial on Covid, assume starting Mid-Q2?
- Foralumab Progressive MS - Q2 start. They are suggesting results in Q2 so suspect that is well advanced.
- Foralumab Crohns - Q2 start
- TZLS501 - Q2 start
- Milciclib - Phase 2b - Q3 start

Given its Tiziana, might be wise to assume a little slippage on timing :-)

Those stating that there's nothing forthcoming...?? It's incredible what they have going on this year, and have funding and heavyweight personnel to support it...

However, I think the problem we see now is that as the country moves towards Covid management, and some semblance of normality returns, TILS acts like a biotech...(which it is)...long development cycles, pockets of news, with periods of quiet clinical activity...which they could expedite to some degree (and are doing so) but it's the nature of the beast...not going to get quick wins in this sector.

The volatility in the last year, and a lot of new investors, I suspect expectation is for quick results, as that has been common in the last year (NCYT, ODX, GDR, HEMO, etc...), but pace is returning to normal. However that normality isn't going to yield quick results so expect churn as people get frustrated...hoping that transition will complete this quarter.

My personal take is that TILS has the makings of being of hugely significant value (and acquired in time, but that will be at GCs discretion), and any binary news item could drop at any time this year so I'd rather be in than out, and also don't have the time or desire to micro-manage a portfolio). I can see the appeal to traders though given sporadic news activity...creating an opportunity to profit from peaks and troughs...that's the sector we have chosen to invest in.

Shorting though seems to be decreasing, at some point the US agenda will stop (the volume of minor sells must be being done for a reason, which is flattering), so hoping we can get to a more stable behaviour over the next quarter...

Anyway, just my view, don't expect everyone to concur...but makes for debate/discussion.

(Good note Roker, going to have to start referring to you as the Sage of Sunderland...(Sage of Nidderdale doesn't work)).

All sounds positive. Lot of activity in H1, with Crohns and MS trials, and the broadened Covid ph2. Assume we'll get top line data in the next couple of weeks which takes us to mid March, and then the trials above kicking off Apr-Jun....
Intrigued by the "major catalyst in next few weeks" FFF...did they elaborate further?
Thanks!

Thanks FFF.

Keeren Shah, Finance Dir at TILS

Not sure I would have posted that loot... Your second paragraph is litigious.

Morning All...
I think the drop was kind of inevitable given the lumpy nature of information flow. Unfortunately with pharma, news is linked to research progression mainly so will get gaps in between news flow, which in turn leads to the drops we see now as impatience kicks in (along with what I think is a protracted effort to drive it down in the short term). The downside is that this will lead to greater volatility as lth's become more inclined to trade given the peaks and troughs.
Already see a pattern of drops on a Thursday am after no RNS as one not likely to come on Fridays...so scope for people to buy back in lower ahead of Monday.
We are obviously due detailed data from the Brazil trial, hoping Monday, and ideally details of next step rather than just previous trial analysis. With others in that if we don't hear early next week could fall further but bounce back is then greater when news arrives.
Still strongly believe in the science and the building blocks being put in place, in my view will see this become a huge company/acquired in the next couple of years, just share frustrations of others around approach to timescales!
I don't think we need to worry about quality of results/scientific credibility, the board have surrounded themselves / recruited heavyweight personnel, building blocks being put in place make this a completely different beast from 12 months ago. Aside from patents, clinical progression and recruits,also put $50mn into the coffers and those shares now fully absorbed back into the market from Altium/Empery.
Anyway just my ramblings...makes a change from staring at spreadsheets...

Morning,
It's anti-IL6, so same as TZLS-501, key difference being TILS is fully human, from memory all the others are humanised (mouse protein origin) so greater side effects on theirs, aswell as IV, rather than nasal/oral. Foralumab Anti-CD3 so different, broader in application.

Agree completely SK. If you've researched the company/science, you take confidence from that and anything else is just noise. Will you make a fortune by the end of Feb, nope...but it's a multi-billion co in the making (unless they sell out early, but recent appts suggest they are in for the long haul).
I think most LTHs have taken a step back from the board as happy for things to play out, last three months have given greater confidence as to the outcome...
Suspect we'll have an update first half of next week, but if it's longer, so be it...