Next steps…17 Jun 2026 09:04
I think there’ll be a lot of frustrated holders given the lack of material SP gains off the news yesterday (me included!).
My thoughts were similar to TT in that there could be a spike to 5p-ish before falling back, but that has failed to materialise (so far).
(is worth noting that the SP is still double what it was a couple of months back, but given how long folks have been here, far greater gains would have been had elsewhere).
Just parking the SP action…in terms of what has been achieved, Cizzle have a market leading test and no-one is coming go close to it for a number of years - as a minimum - given stages required to get to the market so a major positive there and without an investors hat on, they’ve done an incredible job in the science and getting it to market.
In terms of share price, it’s probably ahead of where it should be in terms of revenue recognition. After this year (assuming payments come through on time) they’re due $700k per annum, with an overhead of roughly the same, and unfortunately can see the SP falling back over the coming days unless we see some early indication of strong demand.
In the mid-term, think this still has huge potential, licencing agreements across multiple markets, would see the SP many multiples of where it is now, but think its 3-5 years to get there… the Moffitt study was a c 2-3 study, and any validation study in other markets once commercial terms have been agreed is a c. 3 year window before you see revenues being generated. Having said that, the US has the potential to generate substantial sales quite quickly, albeit the slideware from BIO 12+ months ago had quite modest growth assumptions. (c. $1mn sales Yr 1, $4.6mn by Year 3… at that point, royalties to Cizzle Biotechnology are still below the minimum commit). Having said that, the activity to roll out to a broader number of labs will hopefully lead to greater growth projections but that is an unknown at present and suspect that is the next opportunity for an inflection point.
At the moment, sales will be from the private market, and won’t be part of a screening programme, and being realistic that is a long way off. I’m not wholly convinced insurer reimbursement details will happen in the near future but equally not sure it’s needed.
Galleri has spent years operating largely as a self-pay test before broad reimbursement. …launched commercially in the U.S. in mid-2021 at roughly $949 per test, with essentially no broad insurance coverage. It was primarily physician-ordered and paid for by patients, employers, health systems, and some pilot programs.
The revenue growth was: 2021: ~$7m, 2022: ~$40m, 2023: approximately $75m, 2024: $108.6m
It’s another milestone hit this week, and hopefully early sales data from BIO when it comes will surprise to the upside…
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