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“Patience is not simply the ability to wait - it’s how we behave while we’re waiting…”
As it stands, AS has made nothing on his share options awarded last year, and has a modest £75k (ish) salary for doing the day job. If he’s not pumping out flannel, there is no share price momentum, and he’s made it clear that isn’t his modus operandi…so the only way he (and Prof DC) gets the financial reward (and scientific breakthrough) is through substantial game changing news to drive the share price up…
If you weren’t confident, you’d pump out all sorts of teasers and sound bites - if he wanted the SP to be 2-3x higher than it is now, it’s certainly in his gift to do so - just hit proactive, Mello Monday, investormeet etc… you’d soon drive interest, especially as so under the radar with wider investors currently, but a bit of an unnecessary time commitment if you don’t need significant funds and are close to a material step change which will speak for itself…
(just my bull-ish view…)
Bio-Techne are an M&A heavy business and typically acquire a couple of businesses a year…Cizzle tick every one of their stated M&A objectives…
1. Identify fast growing and/or game changing technologies that can scale
2. Integrate acquisitions that fill product or technology gaps
3. Strengthen diagnostic and analytical capabilities that leverage our consumables portfolio
4. Support continued expansion of footprint in Europe and Asia
Number 3 just screams tie-up…80% of the Bio-Techne business is consumables (reagents, mAbs etc…), exactly what is needed in every LDT and LFT.
While I’m not necessarily assuming acquisition…if you can ensure every global LDT uses your machines and your consumables…Ciz in return get the benefit of IP protection, rigour, scale, distribution etc… If you can then seek to expand that to breast cancer and also bring on a far broader LFT play rapidly, the opportunity for Bio-Techne is vast…especially if the LFT can expand to the breast cancer market in the next 3-5 years…
Just my ramblings…but going to beat the Bio-Techne drum again…
- Bio-Techne make 7% of revenues from China, experience in that market.
- They make 95% of their products in-house (immunoassays, antibodies etc…)
- Board have previous roles in Thermo with strong China activity (inc previous NED roles at Chinese companies)
If I was AS and, while having significant experience in China himself, if I wanted to launch into China I’d want a robust way of protecting my IP… we ship all the required reagents, mAbs etc… but all provided by our approved partner (who know how to navigate the risks in China)
Things have moved on since this release, but link below gives a feel for value…and this is at 28/42% for stage I/II (granted multi cancer test).
Personally, I suspect it’s a moot point, as think sensitivity will be high (specificity more risky) - and also wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see a tie up with Bio-Techne at same time as results announced.
https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2021/Illumina-Acquires-GRAIL-to-Accelerate-Patient-Access-to-Life-Saving-Multi-Cancer-Early-Detection-Test/default.aspx
Galleri test down at 28% for stage 1 and 42% for stage 2, so anything around figures mentioned by Jace would be huge step forward.
Having said that…AS saying we have a 95% accurate test has set a narrative…(think he mentioned that as recent as Jan).
Retail investors may take issue with lower figure, Bio-Techne wouldn’t.
(but we’re all hoping for something as close to 95% as possible)
Hi VV…I had asked questions around SOP being complete, clinical trials underway, nature of those trials (ie. following the Higgins et al approach mentioned in their prospectus), and about Bill Behnke ongoing engagement. I try to only ask clarification questions based on broader relevant info in the public domain, but they never divulge anything -straight bat each time - glad they don’t tbh.
Still feel very positive, and personal view, think next news will be test results data…they seem to recognise they need to update investors but holding out to share material news - whether that is tomorrow or 6 weeks time…🤷
Recent comment from an investor relations email last week…
“Allan has passed it to me to respond to as he is currently travelling.
We are very conscious that no news has been released since the interims, but there is a lot going on…further updates will be announced, coupled with investor engagement, as soon as possible”
Did reply to Tim Metcalfe (Cizzle IR) on Friday…he didn’t give anything away, as you would hope, but did add, “…personally I think things are progressing very positively”
Re lack of comms - suggests (at least to me) they are confident of the destination and don’t care to spend time keeping everyone else warm and fluffy in the meantime with semi-significant news.
Seen pointless RNS’s this am from Polb, Val… Cizzle seem more like Hvo, give significant news only.
The likelihood is that the tech works, I think the variable is what the sensitivity/specificity/ppv/npv looks like.
They’ve proved it to work in a lab setting, so all should be good from a reagent / mAb viewpoint etc… and you’d also cover off variables around storage, shelf life etc… before proceeding to commercial development and testing.
They know it works on Bio-techne’s kit so just need to ensure it kicks out the right quality of data when following SOP in clinic.
If AS is saying they should have it in the market in the very near term 3+ months ago, personally think it’s derisked in terms of it working, but SOP criteria and performance are unknown variables as yet.
Hi TT,
The agreement with Corepath (parking China for simplicity) gives Corepath the right to sell the Lab developed test, for which Cizzle get their 15% royalty. So, straight to the bottom line as Corepath pay for the reagents, mAbs etc…(Consumables)
For Bio-Techne, at the moment, they’d just get a small sale from a few Jess machines…but they sell loads of those to others (c 7k to date)…so not a great upside, certainly not warranting an RNS.
However, that partnership could be stickier due to Bio-Techne get the bulk (80%) of their revenues from consumables. Now, they are needed for Lab tests, but also lateral flow. They also make the LFT kits. The likes of Corepath will have nothing to do with the LFTs, they’re an oncology specialist lab, and a small player.
So, for Bio-Techne, you could just sell half a dozen Jess’s in the next 2-3 years, or you could manufacture and market the LFTs and provide all the consumables that sit behind it.
Cizzle, for their part, can potentially replicate for breast cancer and possibly others, but don’t have the funds, resource or skill set to do a lot of the multiple skills needed beyond proving the science. So a potential win-win, Bio-Techne take a say 20% stake for £x mn, giving the funds to expedite the LFT product (money comes back their way anyway), gives funding to Cizzle to develop breast cancer test so gives a further milestone opportunity down the line. Cizzle get to grow the business quicker, in a competitive space, and have the ability to make a difference sooner.
Just my thoughts…others might disagree :-)
Hi TT, there are 2 distribution agreements in place which will provide royalties to Cizzle, one with Corepath in the US (cover 22 states) and then the ICCAMT agreement in China, allowing for 15% and 10% respectively. These are with regards to the Lab developed test. The partner is responsible for all the cost, so effectively licencing the IP. Value of that will be known once pricing has been set / reimbursement structure agreed with US insurance sector (Medicare, Medicaid etc…).
At the moment, mAbs, reagents etc… would be produced by Fair Biologics (and others), but Bio-Techne also have this capability.
They also have a global footprint, and critically experience in the LFT space. Purely hypothetical on my part, but I could see an agreement whereby they provide funding/payment for a stake (potentially with terms to fully acquire), and in return they fund the LFT to market, possibly have distribution rights re LFT, have some rights re consumables production (reagents, mAbs etc…) and some wider market reach in terms of distribution??
i don’t mind the news blackout, comfortable that things are progressing in the background on multiple fronts…rather be in now than try and get in after a material rns lands.
recent comment from an investor relations email i received last week…
“allan has passed it to me to respond to as he is currently travelling.
we are very conscious that no news has been released since the interims, but there is a lot going on…further updates will be announced, coupled with investor engagement, as soon as possible”
just on the options piece…my quick *** packet calc…as stands to make a modest £7k from his 50% that can be exercised next month…suspect he has greater aspirations than that, and am happy to be aligned with the board re achieving material returns.
i’m expecting (hoping) next news to be clinical test completion, with data, and around that time something around commercial agreement with bio-techne. cizzle have been open in saying they want partnerships to enable progress, and if i was bio-techne, i’d want as big a piece of that pie as possible.
cizzle need funding to expedite development (bio-techne have it), bio-techne have the skills/resource to take the lft product forward (cassettes, reagents, mabs, route to market etc…) and cizzle tick all their m&a boxes - don’t think it will be an outright purchase, doesn’t seem to fit with as intentions, but expect some commercial tie-up (just personal take on things)…imho.
Not a chance it hits 50p…
Has pretty much bottomed out in my view.
Debt pile has been high but becoming far more manageable esp after Spain, Italy, UK merger and IoT spin out.
Fair Share will lead to some mid term changes as not been sustainable for telcos to carry OTT data consumption - the regulators / EU will need to back network providers or accept potential acquisition from afar (and they’ve already warned about the security risks there).
Life is all about opinions :-) … I’d be surprised if he announced the start of a trial, Cizzle RNS’s typically state things after they have happened (Bio-Techne example). Personal view is that the next LDT RNS details trials completed, coupled with sensitivity/specificity data, but could be off the mark…
Recent comments, to me, suggest clinical trials underway…
Directors Talk interview 20/09.
02:05 - “We have a 95% sensitive test for the presence of CIZ1B and therefore able to detect very early stage 1 lung cancer”
03:43 - (referencing Bio-Techne) “Great endorsement and credibility that our assay works extremely well on their particular piece of equipment…”
07:29 - “complete clinical tests with our US partners”
November 9th on a Corepath video call - “…in the market in the very near term…”
January 10th - Cizzle on LinkedIn
“Our low-cost, highly effective blood test can detect CIZ1B…”
It can only be considered low cost if it works as high throughput, this suggests it does.
Aside from the LDT, due an update on the following (at some point…)
- Other cancers, notably breast
- Lateral flow test development (personal take is that this will involve bio-techne)
- China LDT progress
- Funding
- Various regulatory / market progress updates
- Patent updates / submissions / research papers (has been mentioned before re holding back certain news to tie in with patent submissions / publications)
Https://investingstrategy.co.uk/stock-tips/the-buyout-targets-of-2024/
Working on the theory that anxieties that exist after a few beers also exist in the cold light of day, just my thoughts below…
1. If we just look at the in-lab test initially…the whole driver for Cizzle was a human, rather than a financial one - my degree was in biology (fall into the camp of a little knowledge is dangerous), you don’t go into the sector thinking you’re going to be rich…you do it on a human level, and therefore if it’s not going to achieve its aims you’d loop back and change things rather than ploughing on with something that doesn’t meet its end objective) - Elizabeth Holmes aside ;-) ).Once they’d proven the science and then got to a level of confidence in the lab test (going back 7 years since that was done), there’s a lot of refinement around mAbs (rabbit vs mouse etc…), reagents, environmental conditions etc…so this seems to be all good.
2. The high throughput question seems also to have been resolved…can be recreated at volume for commercial purposes. There is a question in terms of whether you achieve the same result as the lab (is an equal argument it could be better), but we should know that imminently, but I do look at the galleri results and they’re way below where Cizzle are talking so a lot of wiggle room (even though we have 95% in our heads).
3. I’ve never come across a CEO (okay, exec chairman) who doesn’t court investors in the way AS doesn’t (little RNS activity - they could push noise out if they wanted, no proactive investor/investormeet/mello etc…- plays things with a very straight bat, so see that as a positive - as if he’s ignoring short term benefit in SP for the end game, I’m always wary of highly visible CEO’s joining telegram groups etc…
4. They’re scientists…work to a longer timeframe than others. If you weren’t seeing the required results for commercial launch, you’d row back and change factors around the test, you’ve been 20 years to this point, what’s another 1… The fact AS is stating it will be in market in the very near term suggests things are looking good, especially given earlier point re understatement.
I think there are potential risks around the specificity reading, hoping that’s > 80%, and may be general issues re patients with other conditions etc… but you see that with all products.
I’d welcome input from others re risks as don’t think any harm in discussing them, but struggling to see a lot of negatives from this point.
On the buy out piece, personally don’t think there’ll be the huge numbers others think, but should be a very nice return.
Initially, just need to prove it works and then assess incremental benefits of wider markets (EU, India, China, UK), wider cancer tests and LFT development. All take time and money so don’t think they can keep the pedestrian pace of a small operation…significant funding has to come in, in some guise.
While the Cizzle team are clearly patient…20 years of development suggests they aren’t in it for the short term, but equally, if you were the investor you need to be sure you can get it to market rapidly. No value in edging it forward given competitive landscape / AI progression etc…
If you look at the Wilson Wolf acquisition by Bio-Techne, you could envisage a partial investment to accelerate LFT / wider market partnerships, with an acquisition further down the line on meeting key milestones…also sits with Allan’s view of leveraging partnerships but retaining IP control. I don’t vaguely expect Cizzle to do any marketing / go-to-market / sales activity, all will be partner driven and using a royalty model, question is whether it’s a multiple partner approach or whether someone like Bio-Techne takes the steering wheel, again, just imv.
The likelihood is that the tech works, I think the variable is what the sensitivity/specificity/ppv/npv looks like.
They’ve proved it to work in a lab setting, so all should be good from a reagent / mAb viewpoint etc… and you’d also cover off variables around storage, shelf life etc… before proceeding to commercial development and testing.
They then know it works on Bio-techne’s kit so just need to ensure it kicks out the right quality of data when following SOP in clinic.
If AS is saying they should have it in the market in the very near term, personally think it’s derisked in terms of it working, but SOP criteria and performance are unknown variables as yet.
However, given the Galleri effectiveness, even if sensitivity / specificity are at 80%, it still blows that test out of the water at stage I/II imv.
There is an updated Jan presentation on the bio-techne investors page, which as a refresh coincides with Kim Kelderman moving from COO to CEO.
On slide 7, does show liquid biopsy as biggest market opportunity for them, but currently their lowest share.
Still calling out market expansion and acquisition.
Leading portfolio of antibodies, immunoassays, diagnostic antibodies, proteins, antigens…
All suggests they would provide greater services than Jess.
The piece I am unclear on is the compatibility of their exosome based liquid biopsy platform and the Cizzle biomarker capabilities.
On slide 25, it mentions continued adoption and expansion of their DX menu in oncology. They do have an ExoEasy platform which covers downstream analysis including ELISA. Worth looking at:
bio-techne.com/diagnostics/exosome
Scope for ease of integration I suspect will determine whether they are a supplier of kit and consumables or can acquire and embed Cizzle in their portfolio…