RE: More Waffle8 Oct 2025 20:45
Lot to walk through there…other than you clearly have good taste when it comes to friends TT…
You mention about being too emotionally close to a share, for me, it’s the complete opposite… i get that people get annoyed re limited comms, delays etc… but does it still stack up if you take the emotion out of it…
1. Directors who have spent years progressing this on very modest salaries, would you do that if you didn’t believe in the product? You’re relying on options and, by proxy, product success.
2. Does the product work and can be market leading for at least the next 4-5 years? Yes, thinks that’s clear now. (Effectiveness of test, point of care, low cost etc…)
3. Is the US team doing a good job - exceptional personnel, significant personal funding (though now cleared), excellent reference sites re validation studies (Moffitt, Anderson etc…), very strong connections into US clinics and government.
4. Is there a distribution model to hit the ground running - looks probable, although questions remain.
5. You’ve got what seems like a credible investor (Lang family) who must be in the know given they’ve just stumped up £150k recently on top of an existing c £600k holding, so they must like what they see. They recently took a similar stake in ECOB after they went to Albania to look at the production facility which suggests they take due diligence in their investments seriously, rather than just taking punts.
There are other factors but you get the principle…macro level all suggests it will be successful.
Completely agree with most of your issues, but just irritations (to me), not seen anything to derail the fundamentals…but others will think differently…that’s what makes a market…
1. Yep, think something went wrong with iGenome, purely based on the call LB was on with BB. Pathfinder narrative is plausible, but not convinced.
2. Would have preferred a lab with an existing national footprint rather than two sites and 4 partner sites. Assume it’s cost / BIO size driven, but pragmatically, BIO paying > $100k a month to Ciz plc, their problem and clear incentive to roll it out effectively.
3. Timescales wise…has been awful, forget 6 months late, think it was originally looking like Apr-25. Pain in the backside, yes, but would rather them do it right rather than deliver what OBD did at launch, and a delay doesn’t detract from fundamentals.
4. China…i assume it’s now obsolete given no word recently. Was still mentioned in the Annual report but not convinced that’s happening any time soon, if at all, and probably ideally not given additional protections needed.
5. Change in payment terms…again irritation, and ability to raise capital in US biggest risk to success.
All just IMHO 😊
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