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I think that’s a valid question 2dopey…if the initial funding round has been successful, that would suggest the funding is there to sign the agreement, so why take longer.

Having said that, you don’t make inroads to the US market with a few $$mn, they need far more working capital than that, if they stand up greater funding does that potentially give them the ability to squeeze the 10% equity hence not wanting to sign terms yet?

Anyway, is what it is…hopefully has a quiet August (no point pushing stuff out then), and Septembers busier with CLIA, Cizzle Bio etc…

You would expect the price to trend upwards in the next couple of weeks (with occasional profit taking), given the agreement with Cizzle Bio Inc is due to complete by the end of July, with associated $2.3mn commitment.

The interesting piece then is what level of insight is provided on Cizzle Bio…IR have stated they will provide detail on Cizzle Bio personnel, plans etc… at the same time.

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-bower-02a92927

Consultants from todays RNS

Interestingly, has previously worked with Fluechem (Martin Lang’s company)

An element of supposition on my part TT…but based on the timescales of submitting to the CLIA in September… they’ll need the Clinical data for that submission.

Coupled with that, they’re due to complete with Cizzle Bio by end-July so assume the data is available then (if not published) before they commit to best part of $3mn…

I would go along with quite a lot of that TT and I do think it’s good to have views on both sides of the coin…

I think the test is pretty much derisked and so we should see positive clinical data in the next couple of months which should see a decent SP reaction if you take the OBD example, but thereafter, confidence in US mgmt team is the key determining factor for SP growth (excluding LFT news, other cancer tests etc…).

With 25mn PSA tests done in the US each year, something that requires a blood draw, I don’t think that achieving volume on these types of tests is unprecedented. Lung Cancer diagnosis is more prevalent than Prostate Cancer, although screening arguably isn’t as embedded with Lung Cancer, but getting volumes in the millions is plausible.

Having said that, I would expect it to be a relatively slow burn initially…

If you look at OBD, and while I think their market approach is flawed and contributing significantly to underperformance, the volumes they are achieving are dire…which in my mind is why so much hangs on what Cizzle Bio looks like (who is brought in, management history, industry knowledge/credibility, start up experience, working capital, GTM model etc…). While I think a licencing model is the right approach, you are dependent on your partners to make it a success, the next few weeks will be interesting on that front as we hopefully get some insight on the personnel there…

I still expect some broader tie up with Bio-Techne post clinical data, given the number of diagnostic tests being built up in their portfolio…and do think that will be an enabler into the APAC market given their experience there, but just personal view…

Hi VV, I would assume it’s two fold…

1) LDT still being finalised so too early for Corepath to run the test, and

2) If they can test in York using old school lab test, gives them calibration data assuming they will then retain the blood records for testing the pre-launch LDT with Corepath once ready - assume it will form part of regulatory approval data records.

The other key piece will be the US funding…not talking the $300k licencing payment, but the finance to push this out in the US…will cost millions so the licencing element is chicken feed…and any investors will be more than aware of the wider capital required to push this out to the market. Any news which shows scale and seriousness of commitment here will be a significant SP driver (just for balance, would have converse impact if the finance doesn’t seem sufficient) along with details of how that long term finance is being delivered (HNWI, IIs, IPO etc….)

Anyway, back under my rock for a few weeks, enjoy the summer (when we eventually get one ;-) )

I think this is more of a confirmatory RNS, but some nice info on timelines and next steps. We knew the $100k had landed, but probably settles the nerves of some who were debating it…

I don’t think the $300k landing will have a huge impact, significant SP movement will be driven off two key drivers imo…

1. Clinical data results

2. Details of personnel behind Cizzle Bio as it progresses - ideally investors (but may not find out), but also management team as success in the US is dependent on them…

Should make for an interesting late summer, hoping they give August a wide berth but crank up the output in September with hopefully positive material news…

“…If VOD had any ambition they could be building out data centres…”

Not sure I can give you that one…huge cloud providers dominate, Google, AWS, MSFT Azure…

Microsoft MCap…3,200bn…Vod…20bn…

Just some general thoughts based on various comments in the last few weeks…

Given the timeframe with Cizzle Bio, I’m not expecting anything significant here until end of July at the earliest, whether we get other updates in the interim, who knows…are other things they will be progressing in the background…

They had confirmed that the MoU was signed 1st April, so I’m working to 4 months from that date. Given the amount of testing they’ve done in the last year e.g. with Bio-Techne, you’d expect the Cizzle Bio Inc audience to be privy to the clinical data, even though the final performance data with the commercial mAbs has yet to be published.

On the competing products, we’ll just get a rinse repeat on this every few weeks as some PR pops up in the mainstream media…in the main these are longer timeframe and non-competing products. AS did comment that he closely follows developments, you’d expect them to forensically trawl through other companies and mechanisms of diagnosis (as we should) - we’ll occasionally see updates from the likes of Freenome, Biodesix, Delfi (AI), Grail etc… but don’t see them as a threat at the moment given speed of progression…

Just on Bio-Techne, still can see a tie-up, but timeline probably pushed out 12 months… Bio-Techne still building their diagnostic portfolio…

https://investors.bio-techne.com/press-releases/detail/416/bio-techne-and-novomol-dx-announce-point-of-care-ocular

Enjoy the summer…

Morning Brondby…indeed…hopefully puts that one to bed now (there was a precedent in that a previous placing didn’t have an RNS on admission date but I’d lost the will to bother pointing that out :-) )

Just for completeness, Tim also confirmed the following as it wasn’t wholly clear in the RNS:

1) MoU signed 1st April (so 30 days from there)

2) The 120 days applies from the 1st of April, not the point at which the $100k would be paid.

Hi TT, just following on from your concerns at the weekend, I’ve had the following from Tim Metcalfe this morning…

“The placing has been completed. The announcement on 26 March 2024 contained full details of the placing and no further announcement by the company is required or expected on completion (unless the date of admission or something else in connection with the placing changes, which it didn’t). The placing completed and the shares were admitted as expected on 11 April…”

I do tbh OAPK… 😀

- They placed at 2.1p 10 months ago, albeit for a lesser amount, and they are materially further forward…so not as if they have had difficulty raising in that range, and although the markets are weak I think they are an improvement on last year where you saw huge discounts in this sector (FAB, APTA etc…)

- I personally think they were caught out re the climb to 2.6p which I think was down to retail investors off the back of the Cizzle Bio link coupled with an expectation of the clinical test results being imminent. A week before the placing, the SP was sat at 2.2p.

- They’ve not declared who they have taking the placing but if we assume TR-1 admin is accurate, you’d think the funds are coming from a small base of investors…time will tell if we get a TR-1, e.g. doesn’t take a lot for Martin Lang to drop below 9% given he’s at 9.03%… you’d expect those investing are closer to knowing latest position relative to retail PIs (prior to the DT interview last week)

Just imho…

Hi TT,

I think there’s a big difference between catching someone on the hoof and having a quick chat (and picking up on brief info threads as a result) vs expecting a call back from someone under NDA with a company this side of the pond, to call back a random investor, from Cayman for a chat 24 hrs later, but don’t think we’ll align on thinking there…

With regards to the last couple of weeks, I don’t think a lot has changed…expected a placing (if not using the E3 fund), the key part for me is that there was unnecessary self harm through poor comms - if they had telegraphed where they were at, it would have sat comfortably with investors (or at least the majority) rather than having a 6 month blackout, not keeping PIs informed, and the first comms is a placing…staggering naivety in my view and has damaged AS’s credibility, but I suspect he’s well aware of that after the noise over the last couple of weeks.

As a result, I think we’re probably 4-6 months behind where I thought they were. I had no expectations of it being in market quickly, and still think that could be 12-18 months away - the timescale between confirmatory data, insurance codes and launching shouldn’t be underestimated - but the material news of clinical data which I saw as a SP driver I considered imminent, but is probably 4 months away now (could see it linking into the timescales of the confirmed contract, but just a personal view).

I don’t think there is a lot of doubt that it has the right performance…they will have tested it on Jess multiple times already and know the figures are compelling, but the deposit of $100k will cement that view as any group of HNWIs aren’t going to stump up millions without knowing a concept is backed up by robust data, even if we aren’t privy to it at this point in time.

Was going to comment on the commercial agreement which I think is stronger than before but Brondby has commented already - the key piece here, and I try to be balanced even though you think I am very bullish - is that success after the clinical data is wholly dependent on the credentials of as yet unknown investors in the US. You would like to think Bill B knows the right people to support an initiative like this, and they’re not bankrolling it without having the capabilities to maximise market success, but without knowing their capabilities we’ll be somewhat in the dark…but that will be down the line from having the key inflections of signed agreement and clinical data.

Hi TT…I’m not sure you’d expect anything different…

While Bill B might be working with private individuals, and there might be an element of naivety… Cizzle are listed, it appears they are working with Bio-Techne (US jurisdiction) still so will be NDAs in place that Cizzle would be nervous about breaching, 1) as they couldn’t afford the legal fees and 2) it jeopardises commercial discussions…

If he had talked openly…think you/me might have questioned professionalism etc… so an element of damned if they do damned if they don’t…

A heady £450 traded yesterday…

I assume this will stay flat for 2-3 weeks yet - would think the $100k deposited end of the month should be announced around annual results time (assuming it’s late April/early May) and hopefully will be coupled with a clear forward looking statement around mAb scaling up etc… AS did mention there would be an announcement re mAbs partners “fairly soon”.

You would think it’s the 3-4 month period after that when clinical test results are complete, and the MOU is converted to a contract agreement that we’ll see significant positive momentum return. Hopefully see some wider updates re patents, LFT, other tests etc… in the interim…

I would assume, at some point they’ll state they’re going to use Ella for the 96 well ELISA test, so ongoing progress with Bio-Techne, given they say they are still working with them.

https://www.bio-techne.com/instruments/simple-plex/cost-advantages

Re the US, given what is needed there, it’s going to cost many millions, and while there seems to be confidence HNWI are lined up, can’t envisage us getting any real detail on that given it’s a private entity and Cizzle are just the licence provider. Would be useful to know the credentials of those who will deliver on this in market (you would expect them to be already in discussions given how long Bill B has been working on this).

I still can’t fully square the circle on the placing - stating they had previously budgeted to do it themselves in the US, and hence needed funds, doesn’t align with the time lead for a placing and when Cizzle Bio Inc was set up - only thing I can think of is:

1. that it was leverage while terms of that agreement was being finalised, and more likely

2. You need working capital while that deal is being negotiated over the coming months to maintain momentum, as could be another 3-4 months before funds land.

LungLife are aiming to use AI post CT scan.

1) Diagnostic test (eg Cizzle)

2) If likely lung cancer, CT scan - clinical pathway

3) Use of prognostic tools to determine best route forward, where LungLife AI play…

Would still be nice to get the test out this year though!

When someone has pumped the share for 6 months (they know a lot about Ciz), then flips narrative, just game playing…

At least with someone like Chris H, he took grief for pumping it and selling but has been straight, came back in again when thought it was undervalued…

Just a wider bit of lung cancer news re treatment for anyone interested…

Britain’s biggest drugmaker AstraZeneca has received a boost, as its blockbuster cancer drug Imfinzi showed positive results as a treatment for aggressive lung cancer in a late-stage clinical trial.

The drug demonstrated a “statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement” in both the overall survival of patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer, and the survival of of patients without the disease progressing.

Small cell lung cancer is a highly aggressive form of cancer that typically recurs and progresses rapidly despite initial response to chemotherapy and radiotherapy, with only 15%-30% of these patients alive five years after diagnosis, AstraZeneca said.

Susan Galbraith, executive vice president of oncology research & development at the drugmaker, said:

These exciting results build on the transformative efficacy of Imfinzi in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and demonstrate the potential to bring a curative-intent immunotherapy treatment to this earlier-stage setting of small cell lung cancer for the first time.

These data, together with the PACIFIC data in unresectable, Stage III non-small cell lung cancer, underscore the pioneering role of Imfinzi in the treatment of early lung cancer following chemoradiotherapy.

After ramping up research spending and through a series of smart bets, AstraZeneca has built up a portfolio of cancer drugs that accounts for almost a quarter of the company’s annual revenues.

Corepath are just a front end oncology lab who have accreditation to run LDTs, they’re not geared up to run operations in the US… don’t think that was ever the expectation, they’re just do the analysis of blood tests received from care providers - assume they will now purchase mAbs etc… from Cizzle Inc rather than UK entity??