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Hi TT, there are 2 distribution agreements in place which will provide royalties to Cizzle, one with Corepath in the US (cover 22 states) and then the ICCAMT agreement in China, allowing for 15% and 10% respectively. These are with regards to the Lab developed test. The partner is responsible for all the cost, so effectively licencing the IP. Value of that will be known once pricing has been set / reimbursement structure agreed with US insurance sector (Medicare, Medicaid etc…).

At the moment, mAbs, reagents etc… would be produced by Fair Biologics (and others), but Bio-Techne also have this capability.

They also have a global footprint, and critically experience in the LFT space. Purely hypothetical on my part, but I could see an agreement whereby they provide funding/payment for a stake (potentially with terms to fully acquire), and in return they fund the LFT to market, possibly have distribution rights re LFT, have some rights re consumables production (reagents, mAbs etc…) and some wider market reach in terms of distribution??

i don’t mind the news blackout, comfortable that things are progressing in the background on multiple fronts…rather be in now than try and get in after a material rns lands.

recent comment from an investor relations email i received last week…

“allan has passed it to me to respond to as he is currently travelling.

 

we are very conscious that no news has been released since the interims, but there is a lot going on…further updates will be announced, coupled with investor engagement, as soon as possible”

just on the options piece…my quick *** packet calc…as stands to make a modest £7k from his 50% that can be exercised next month…suspect he has greater aspirations than that, and am happy to be aligned with the board re achieving material returns.

i’m expecting (hoping) next news to be clinical test completion, with data, and around that time something around commercial agreement with bio-techne. cizzle have been open in saying they want partnerships to enable progress, and if i was bio-techne, i’d want as big a piece of that pie as possible.

cizzle need funding to expedite development (bio-techne have it), bio-techne have the skills/resource to take the lft product forward (cassettes, reagents, mabs, route to market etc…) and cizzle tick all their m&a boxes - don’t think it will be an outright purchase, doesn’t seem to fit with as intentions, but expect some commercial tie-up (just personal take on things)…imho.

Not a chance it hits 50p…

Has pretty much bottomed out in my view.

Debt pile has been high but becoming far more manageable esp after Spain, Italy, UK merger and IoT spin out.

Fair Share will lead to some mid term changes as not been sustainable for telcos to carry OTT data consumption - the regulators / EU will need to back network providers or accept potential acquisition from afar (and they’ve already warned about the security risks there).

Life is all about opinions :-) … I’d be surprised if he announced the start of a trial, Cizzle RNS’s typically state things after they have happened (Bio-Techne example). Personal view is that the next LDT RNS details trials completed, coupled with sensitivity/specificity data, but could be off the mark…

Recent comments, to me, suggest clinical trials underway…

Directors Talk interview 20/09.

02:05 - “We have a 95% sensitive test for the presence of CIZ1B and therefore able to detect very early stage 1 lung cancer”

03:43 - (referencing Bio-Techne) “Great endorsement and credibility that our assay works extremely well on their particular piece of equipment…”

07:29 - “complete clinical tests with our US partners”

November 9th on a Corepath video call - “…in the market in the very near term…”

January 10th - Cizzle on LinkedIn

“Our low-cost, highly effective blood test can detect CIZ1B…”

It can only be considered low cost if it works as high throughput, this suggests it does.

Aside from the LDT, due an update on the following (at some point…)

- Other cancers, notably breast

- Lateral flow test development (personal take is that this will involve bio-techne)

- China LDT progress

- Funding

- Various regulatory / market progress updates

- Patent updates / submissions / research papers (has been mentioned before re holding back certain news to tie in with patent submissions / publications)

Https://investingstrategy.co.uk/stock-tips/the-buyout-targets-of-2024/

Working on the theory that anxieties that exist after a few beers also exist in the cold light of day, just my thoughts below…

1. If we just look at the in-lab test initially…the whole driver for Cizzle was a human, rather than a financial one - my degree was in biology (fall into the camp of a little knowledge is dangerous), you don’t go into the sector thinking you’re going to be rich…you do it on a human level, and therefore if it’s not going to achieve its aims you’d loop back and change things rather than ploughing on with something that doesn’t meet its end objective) - Elizabeth Holmes aside ;-) ).Once they’d proven the science and then got to a level of confidence in the lab test (going back 7 years since that was done), there’s a lot of refinement around mAbs (rabbit vs mouse etc…), reagents, environmental conditions etc…so this seems to be all good.

2. The high throughput question seems also to have been resolved…can be recreated at volume for commercial purposes. There is a question in terms of whether you achieve the same result as the lab (is an equal argument it could be better), but we should know that imminently, but I do look at the galleri results and they’re way below where Cizzle are talking so a lot of wiggle room (even though we have 95% in our heads).

3. I’ve never come across a CEO (okay, exec chairman) who doesn’t court investors in the way AS doesn’t (little RNS activity - they could push noise out if they wanted, no proactive investor/investormeet/mello etc…- plays things with a very straight bat, so see that as a positive - as if he’s ignoring short term benefit in SP for the end game, I’m always wary of highly visible CEO’s joining telegram groups etc…

4. They’re scientists…work to a longer timeframe than others. If you weren’t seeing the required results for commercial launch, you’d row back and change factors around the test, you’ve been 20 years to this point, what’s another 1… The fact AS is stating it will be in market in the very near term suggests things are looking good, especially given earlier point re understatement.

I think there are potential risks around the specificity reading, hoping that’s > 80%, and may be general issues re patients with other conditions etc… but you see that with all products.

I’d welcome input from others re risks as don’t think any harm in discussing them, but struggling to see a lot of negatives from this point.

You drive a hard bargain Matt, but suppose I could accept that…

On the buy out piece, personally don’t think there’ll be the huge numbers others think, but should be a very nice return.

Initially, just need to prove it works and then assess incremental benefits of wider markets (EU, India, China, UK), wider cancer tests and LFT development. All take time and money so don’t think they can keep the pedestrian pace of a small operation…significant funding has to come in, in some guise.

While the Cizzle team are clearly patient…20 years of development suggests they aren’t in it for the short term, but equally, if you were the investor you need to be sure you can get it to market rapidly. No value in edging it forward given competitive landscape / AI progression etc…

If you look at the Wilson Wolf acquisition by Bio-Techne, you could envisage a partial investment to accelerate LFT / wider market partnerships, with an acquisition further down the line on meeting key milestones…also sits with Allan’s view of leveraging partnerships but retaining IP control. I don’t vaguely expect Cizzle to do any marketing / go-to-market / sales activity, all will be partner driven and using a royalty model, question is whether it’s a multiple partner approach or whether someone like Bio-Techne takes the steering wheel, again, just imv.

The likelihood is that the tech works, I think the variable is what the sensitivity/specificity/ppv/npv looks like.

They’ve proved it to work in a lab setting, so all should be good from a reagent / mAb viewpoint etc… and you’d also cover off variables around storage, shelf life etc… before proceeding to commercial development and testing.

They then know it works on Bio-techne’s kit so just need to ensure it kicks out the right quality of data when following SOP in clinic.

If AS is saying they should have it in the market in the very near term, personally think it’s derisked in terms of it working, but SOP criteria and performance are unknown variables as yet.

However, given the Galleri effectiveness, even if sensitivity / specificity are at 80%, it still blows that test out of the water at stage I/II imv.

There is an updated Jan presentation on the bio-techne investors page, which as a refresh coincides with Kim Kelderman moving from COO to CEO.

On slide 7, does show liquid biopsy as biggest market opportunity for them, but currently their lowest share.

Still calling out market expansion and acquisition.

Leading portfolio of antibodies, immunoassays, diagnostic antibodies, proteins, antigens…

All suggests they would provide greater services than Jess.

The piece I am unclear on is the compatibility of their exosome based liquid biopsy platform and the Cizzle biomarker capabilities.

On slide 25, it mentions continued adoption and expansion of their DX menu in oncology. They do have an ExoEasy platform which covers downstream analysis including ELISA. Worth looking at:

bio-techne.com/diagnostics/exosome

Scope for ease of integration I suspect will determine whether they are a supplier of kit and consumables or can acquire and embed Cizzle in their portfolio…

Only 10% of bio-techne’s revenues are instruments, 80% is consumables - antibodies, reagents etc…

While Cizzle have existing partner in fair journey biologics etc… pull through for bio-techne is huge…

I think he is referencing a break out rather than a buy out… follows on from Zak calling out 3p end of month in his weekly tea leaf reading.

Given we are at c2.6p and have been in the c2p range before, break out was already happening imho…

We don’t know when there’ll be an update, could be tomorrow…could be April.

What we do know is that we are increasingly hearing positive soundbites…

Directors Talk interview 20/09.

02:05 - “We have a 95% sensitive test for the presence of CIZ1B and therefore able to detect very early stage 1 lung cancer”

03:43 - (referencing Bio-Techne) “Great endorsement and credibility that our assay works extremely well on their particular piece of equipment…”

07:29 - “complete clinical tests with our US partners”

November 9th on a Corepath video call - “…in the market in the very near term…”

January 10th - Cizzle on LinkedIn

“Our low-cost, highly effective blood test can detect CIZ1B…”

It can only be considered low cost if it works as high throughput, this suggests it does.

January 11th (in response to Cizzle LinkedIn note)

Corepath who have been doing the clinical testing…

Aamir Ehsan, MD

President/Medical Director, CorePath Laboratories. Certified in Hematopathology, Molecular Genetics & Blood Bank

2h

Stomp out Cancer

Hope and desire of all of us.

Some success and some not that much success. We have high hopes in CIZ1B and other biomarkers on horizon. Early detection is the key

Hoping tonight will give a decent forward looking view…can only recognise revenue over the length of the contract period so actuals might not show full picture (e.g. they might sign a 2 year CDMO deal, but can only recognise 1/4 of the revenue in the first 6 months), so hoping there’s a clear forward trading picture on both in flight signed contracts and pipeline…

Revenue is down from £2.9mn in the previous 6 months to £2.4m in FY23/24. Referencing H1 over H1 is only credible if there is seasonality.

It’s still heading in the right direction but more work needed to translate what seems to be a promising portfolio into £££ imho.

Did feel light on content…hopefully get more detail tonight, still feels some way to go to firing on all cylinders…

Had hoped for £4mn rev for 6 months but has gone backwards, h2 £2.9mn, h1 £2.4mn, wouldn’t expect seasonality particularly…

Cash runway down to 9 months.

Moving in right direction but slower than expected…

Interesting post LB…

“That is why we are transforming testing strategies; to help detect early-stage lung cancer. Our low-cost, highly effective blood test can detect CIZ1B, which is highly associated with lung cancer at its earliest stage”

Well…the only way it’s low cost is if it works on a high throughput platform… 😀

Well that got people talking TT…😂

Reading through it does suggest there is a long way to go for Novelna, sample across 18 cancers, but only 440 total patients. Also curious to state 90%+ at stage 1, when there were 440 people in the study all confirmed with cancer (and typically don’t get diagnosed till later, granted breast cancer is picked up in 80% of cases at stage 1/2, but lung cancer is down at c 25%).

Feels like they are 5+ years away, but it’s a busy field and can think of another 5-6 trying to crack this nut - not aware of any as close to a market offering as Ciz (with high sensitivity/specificity) but does show competitive threats both through traditional scientific approaches aswell as AI/machine learning.

I think the volume is so low TT, it just seems to be PIs moving the deck chairs as they see short term potential elsewhere - saw 3-4 100k buys last week and then moved back out again when no news Mon/Tues this week…

Personally, would be gutted if an RNS landed and it opened at 6p, so willing to sit on my hands while it bounces around in its current range 🤷