Member Info for Greend100

No it’s not…this FY excludes R & D tax credits c £1.5mn - like for like £56.5m…

I don’t think £3mn extra impacts takeover relative to the 20 years of IP development and patents.

Prefer the quiet start…gets rid of those looking for quick intraday gains off a positive RNS.

This just takes away the risk of placings in the next 18-24 months (more beneficial in preventing dilution rather than discounted price issue), and can expedite their LFT development - as investors do their research, see the opportunity, hopefully see a nice gradual rise instead…

Https://investors.bio-techne.com/

Would highly recommend reading the investor day presentation…a lot of very relevant strings to their bow…from reagents/mAbs through to prostate cancer testing kits…

Interesting price movement on Murf this eve…

Exactly Jace…you don’t spend 20 years in developing a diagnostic test with high lab performance, and then progress to market launch if it’s not exhibiting at least the same efficacy in an automated high throughput platform…

Why do you think the product isn’t looking good? There’s nothing to back that up other than not liking timeframes of biotech.

- They secured £350k at 2.1p, only one quarter back, so the investor(s) are either frivolous with funds or have high confidence in direction of travel.

- AS has mentioned that things are progressing extremely well, and were seeking to accelerate progress.

- They have achieved necessary efficacy in lab but need to show that in clinical trials (with Corepath) and that will be necessary both to realise business value but also to achieve FDA approval - doesn’t happen overnight.

As mentioned before, comms aren’t great but prefer this over the P&D scenario of talking things up…there’s enough pieces of news though that can land to see significant upside from here in the coming weeks…

A lot of those 18’s are buys over the last couple of days - know a few who have added, myself included, and all shown as sells.

That said, clearly someone selling large chunks but paired with someone keen to take them at 18p - suspect it’s an ex exec member and it’s been agreed, but could be wrong…curious big clips being sold aligns to big buying.

On a broader note, Ergomed, although only going for a c 30% premium on closing SP, it had a resulting PE of c x45. Hvivo currently trading at c x15, so a lot of value to be realised yet…

Growing acquisition activity in this sector, so only a matter of time before Hvivo get sold.

They’re doing all the right things, true valuation will come through at some point…don’t think the exec are bothered, otherwise they’d be hitting various proactive / lse / mello Monday sessions etc… but that would just spike the SP.

Given order book, moving to more mature premises and scope to grow other revenue streams, JPMorgan close to TR1 level having been acquiring over recent weeks…feels like it’s moved to the next level…just not impacting the SP yet…

Thought I’d just take a look to see what the reaction was to CF stepping down…nothing 🤷

Not sure why, given noise in other lithium plays / other metals…but no interest at all in BHL…

I think the raise was inevitable - might be funded for 12 months, but if it was your business you wouldn’t run it down to the wire…you’d ensure you’ve got sufficient working capital for 18-24 month runway.

As mentioned before, being able to raise at c10% discount in this market shows some faith from investors…when you consider others in this space (Apta, fab etc…) have been doing so at 80% and then only securing 6 months of capital…

They couldn’t wait on MURF…while things look promising and now have near term timelines for IPO… all it takes is some wider market contagion (Country Garden, Evergrande possibly), and they may hold off till things settle… Ciz did the right thing in my view, if anything wish they’d gone further to expedite developments (as much as you can on this sector)

Personally…think it’s driven by three things:

1) Poorly worded communications - think they should have focussed on the fact they’ve been able to make the research platform a commercial grade version and articulated next steps better.

2) A very flat market so a lot taking their 10-15% off the back of news - see it across all shares.

3) Folk thinking they’re now waiting for next stage so move off - see it with other positive news releases e.g. OPTI.

My view is that the SP can move quickly and there’s enough positive news flow due…not worth the risk, but that’s just a personal take on it, some others will see it differently…

Just because the PSA test is unreliable, all blood tests are therefore unreliable? Seriously?

Improvements in early accurate testing is a huge positive, whether that is Cizzle or someone else advancing science to achieve it…

My dad has just been diagnosed with terminal prostrate cancer - had gone metastatic before being picked up - his PSA tests were always low - think it’s something like 1 in 7 where you don’t see elevated PSA scores.

I think given the state of the markets, would have expected a bit of profit taking…see where this settles, feels like it could be where it is now, before going again…but each time levels off at a higher base, so all looks promising.

With Muck… don’t see a need for placing given cash erosion of < £1mn in 6 months, and sat on £3mn+. Only risk I see is if demand is so great that cash is required to support more aggressive revenue growth and from a position of strength, so wouldn’t see that as a negative and they generally have strong support (and invest themselves) so don’t see any major concerns there personally. (was concerned 12 months ago but not so now).

Suspect “we are now engaged in clinical trials” would have been a better lead on the RNS than “we’ve expanded our collaboration with York Uni”… but hey ho, another box ticked on the way to market.

You would also expect it to be a concurrent process…

1) Get FDA approval for LDT with Corepath

2) Behnke source 1-2 partners to serve rest of states

3) Work through FDA approval for local LDT testing (which clearly takes longer)

Suspect likelihood of 3 materialising will be linked to how long it takes to develop a lateral flow test…

The point of the LDT being developed with Corepath is that they are an accredited lab - it’s a quicker route to market working with one lab across multiple states than developing an LDT that would be used in multiple labs nationally which requires longer FDA approval.

The testing which is now starting with Corepath, will form part of the FDA submission in showing the results can mirror those achieved in a laboratory setting.

I think that’s all positive news…

1) Recent placing has enabled them to crank up the development programme at York Uni

2) Met all criteria to start clinical trial development, so results must be good.

3) They’ve previously had very strong metrics for sensitivity of the test, sounds like recent mAb developments have elevated that further, so have no doubts this is streets ahead of alternatives.

4) Still waiting on SOP being completed, but shouldn’t be far off given now working on clinical trial design.

5) First time they’ve mentioned Europe and UK regulators for test approval as far as I am aware.

…and currently £7m mcap…with c£1m in cash and £3+ mn in equity once MURF / Conduit IPO completes…

Answers / Opinions:

1) What’s the SP ?

Easy one this…top of the page ;-)

2) How much has it declined since the RTO ?

circa 80%…wide range of factors, sector went out of favour after covid, lot of cash taken off table due to wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty, lot of cash being spent 2+ years ago during covid.

Lot of others have faired worse… ABDX floated similar time, down > 90%, Trellus similar time, down over 90%. Not a good price, but personally think it’s an opportunity (can’t say same for most)

3) What money is coming in ?

Well…in terms of revenue generation none…it hasn’t launched yet, same as with a lot of biotechs…

However, they appear to have found it easy to raise funds…which suggests positive sentiment among investors. Placing was

Everyone’s entitled to their viewpoint, but what i don’t understand is if you don’t have any faith in the company product / mgmt and think they’re going nowhere, why wouldn’t you just sell up and move onto other companies you do have confidence in? 🤷

I’ll grant you it’s a slow burn and comms could be a lot better, but compared to most companies, they’re strongly incentivised to make it succeed.

Aside from the reasonably modest salaries (discussed previously), the options received in Nov 21 are only exercisable above 10p (60%+ of her shares, others don’t have the limitation).

At current price, Prof DC’s shares/options are worth c £200k, get the SP to 20p and they’re worth >£4.5mn… aside from the very significant human aspect of wanting this to succeed, there’s a pretty strong financial one aswell…

(Allan Syms in the same situation)

Tried to give a view below, won’t have covered everything…but hopefully helps…

- We know the ability to use an ELISA based test to measure CIZ1B is done, that was first shown in 2017 (Google April 2017 Clinical Biochemistry Dawn Coverley)

- We know it’s got 95%+ sensitivity (are other measures around PPV, NPV, specificity) but it blows competition out of the water.

- They believe the same principle applies to other protein fragments for other cancers, but currently WIP.

- We know they have been refining the test re mAbs, reagents etc… and narrative has been that it has been going extremely well (AS words).

- Next stage is to have a completed Standard Operating Protocol (Google it) for the Lab Developed Test and that would then enable the delivery of the LDT into local market.

- Corepath had mentioned previously that on track to validate/commercialise in 2023 (they need 6 months from receiving LDT for it to be in market)

- Presentations in March ‘23 have stated all going well (Stockbox, Sunday Roast)

- They were able to raise additional funds at pretty much market price last month which is a huge vote of confidence when you look at the level of discounting in other companies (Yourgene, APTA etc…).

- In the same RNS last month they reference now starting to develop a LFT for point of care which would suggest all proving positive in the LDT one.

- Also states “…continue to make excellent progress…” on its LDT.

- Given partnership model, current cash burn, Conduit PUT option (when it materialises) that cash isn’t an issue going forward.

- Also taking options instead of salary increase suggests a high level of confidence.

The only gripe I have is poor comms, but even then that would just lead to greater volatility…so happy to sit on my hands and wait for news…