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Hi LB,

I thought for Nasdaq listings the key criteria was oddly the SP rather than MC, so a consolidation of shares would get them to the threshold ?? - was a similar discussion on Accustem (Tiziana spin out which will have an MC of $11mn if successful book build)

Price is due to be c.£8 from memory so competitive.

Also being sold through Lloyds pharmacies plus Amazon, not sure on others yet…

Will women trust it? Isn’t that the point of testing and approval processes? - pretty sure it will become the norm…

Https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/conduit-pharmaceuticals-to-become-a-publicly-traded-company-via-merger-with-murphy

I thought it was due to ipo at around $700mn (bit out of date so may not be wholly accurate now)

I’d be surprised if it was ML given the consistent and prolonged way he built up his stake (and if looking at short term only he’s had plenty of time to sell down at higher values).

My assumption was that it was short to mid term investors who think they’ll get a better return on other popular shares e.g. Prem, which has fallen off from highs…imho…

Yep, agree, so for Ciz:

Amino acid fragments from Stage 1 lung cancer being absorbed by fibrinogen enables LDT to pick up early detection of stage 1 LC - hopefully to a very high level - sensitivity/specificity/PPV data may come with assay optimisation RNS.

Diagnosis initially at hospital but hopefully through LFT eventually local clinician level, at which point patient goes into broader confirmation diagnosis and treatment (which will be cheaper and more successful given early capture).

LungLife

Individual presents symptoms, goes through usual pathway (x-ray, MRI scan…).

Blood draw and testing would present most appropriate treatment pathway (assume over time that is enhanced as you can draw down on far more data with relevant blood markers to see what is most successful based on the data captured).

Should be compatible rather than competition imv.

I thought LLAIs test wasn’t anything to do with diagnosis - my understanding is that it is used off the back of a CT scan as a tool to help determine the most appropriate treatment pathway, and will use AI learning to help improve its effectiveness in doing so as a result of the blood profiles it builds up in its database, rather than actual testing for stage 1 lung cancer…

Correct me if you think I’m misinterpreting something…

Hi Jimzi,

I don’t think Imutex has been side lined just written down for accounting purposes…

For me, this morning’s announcement was clearing the decks for the sale of Hvivo, I’d expect Imutex to sit in the holding company / other vehicle while it progresses - granted its slow (very), but it’s only end of Sept since they did the in vitro study so still being invested in, and in my view a valuable asset. From memory, Hvivo paid £14mn for their stake on 2016, did a challenge study gratis, and then the 2018 ph2b…

For info, feedback from IR on the in vitro study a couple of months back…(the 2018 ph2b only targeted two strains, the in vitro was five).

The in vitro study was significant because it investigated the activity of FLU-v against five different influenza strains, which is pertinent to its intended use as a broad-spectrum influenza vaccine. The Phase 2b study and human challenge study showed that FLU-v was safe, able to elicit an immune response and reduce mild to moderate influenza symptoms, but the candidate still requires examination against a wider set of influenza strains – this in vitro study was a precursor to studying FLU-v’s broad spectrum capabilities in a wider in vivo study.

Thanks Neil

Thanks for your reply Neil,
Have read all your previous posts previously (more than once :-) )which proved v useful!

The piece I’m trying to join the dots on is the last pathfinder results, I can track down summary findings but not the full research paper.

From DCs 2016 paper (published 2017 from memory) Cizzle have got 95% accuracy and c.74% specificity for stage 1, and as they work through final optimisation that will hopefully increase.

Grails paper in Annals of Oncology from 2021 shows 16.8% sensitivity stage 1, and high specificity, but specificity not broken down by stage.
Their interim pathfinder study for MCED-E test was 43% ppv (previous 38% for MCED), but this was PPV rather than sensitivity, so can’t reconcile with CIZ sensitivity and more critically, Grails ppv figure is blended for cancer stages so success heavily skewed towards Stage 3 and 4.
I can’t though find the full paper for the final Grail pathfinder study, just summary info… not sure if you can point me in the right direction? (increasingly heavily invested here so try to understand as much as possible about the wider landscape :-) )
Thanks

Morning,

Just a couple of things to post…

1) Illumina ownership of Gilead

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-ftc-orders-illumina-divest-cancer-detection-test-maker-grail-2023-04-03/

2) On the Galleria test - when I look at the paper in Annals of Oncology it states just 16% sensitivity of detection at Stage 1 for the Galleria test, whereas I thought it had been mentioned as in the 30-40% range. Any thoughts? Cheers

https://www.annalsofoncology.org/article/S0923-7534(21)02046-9/fulltext

90% up YTD Colin, was 120% but drifted last 3 weeks or so…but think well placed to climb again… All the best x

700k births in UK each year, higher in terms of number conceived. Invariably take > 1 test.
Saliva vs current approach…??

I reckon it hits 10p in the next week but we’ll see…£7mn MC and small float

A lot of positives to take here, think it’s finally turned a corner…
- Cash burn under control…down to £0.7m for the quarter, and with £3.7mn as of end of March, think it eliminates the raise question.
- Salistick is exclusive and should be huge, also Amazon opprtunity.
- CDMO cranked up and strong growing pipeline and margins look good
- Huge self test opprtunity with Lloyds - not name checked but live in Ireland and UK to follow.

Hi Neil,
Thanks for your reply…
I was thinking in terms of a commercial test - my understanding is that it has been shown to work in a lab based setting, and the assay optimisation work etc… was to be able to get to a similar level of efficacy in a commercial test. Happy to be corrected.

Not Galleri…these guys
https://guardanthealth.com/clinical-studies/#early-stage-studies--content
Think it’s fab from a cancer care perspective, developments in liquid biopsy is going to be a life changer…
From a Ciz investment perspective…Guardan currently $2.4bn (have been as high as $18bn), primarily testing focussed.
Stage 2 capable, but lab based test, different mechanism for testing for positive cancer presence, and post operative.
At stage 1, the Ciz mechanism of identifying protein fragments being mopped up by fibrinogen is a completely different action, far more sensitive and if can get this working in an ELISA test is just game changing…

Not chasing them away…see it as a positive as they see value…just want it a bit cheaper…wouldn’t be wasting their time here otherwise :-)

You can’t sell what you don’t own…

It’s pipeline as far as I understand it…
C£300mn in the pipeline, with a weighted pipeline of £75m-£80m.

As contracts get further progressed e.g. qualified, shortlisted, negotiating contracts…the % likelihood of winning will go up.
So a £10mn contract that has been qualified as a potential opportunity might have a 20% weighting, so £2mn qualified pipeline, but some distance to go to close it.
One in negotiation might be 80% weighting, so £8mn in the weighted pipeline.

I don’t think the Conduit RTO will happen any time soon - they’ve got a rolling monthly agreement so not urgent - and given recent market turmoil not an ideal month to launch.
Ciz not burning cash at any significant rate so not a critical factor in the short term…think news on assay optimisation /LDT platform more of a key near term driver imho