Member Info for Greend100

RNS shows 2.1% holding still.
13/12/22 RNS shows reduced to 3.72%
So roughly 6 weeks to drop 1.6% (granted Christmas in the way)
“If” he’s planning on exiting completely that would be another 8 weeks at current rate (or am I missing something?)

Been in and out of this share (currently out) but keep coming back to it…it’s a bit like Stockholm syndrome…

We all know that on good news this will fly, and noting the execs financial commitment…but still twitchy about the numbers…if people are just in to trade (which makes sense given SP action in the last few months but wanted to get views on wider performance).

I get the movement towards CDMO activities but assume it’s a competitive market, and gross margins will be 20-30% rather than 60-70%.
Direct costs in their preliminaries were really high which I am hoping is legacy costs of covid activities.

Moving beyond Direct costs to Opex…
If they’ve cut staff down to 60-70 people (note they have recruited again recently), fully loaded salaries must be a minimum £30k as an average, so £2mn per annum.

Their administrative expenses to jun 22 were £6mn. Staff reduced from 130ish to 70ish, so if I assume 130 last FY, that’s £4mn ish staff costs and £2mn wider costs admin costs (they don’t state a breakdown). So £2mn admin costs (might be a bit lower now) + £2mn current staff costs = £4mn per annum, which ties in with the exec view they have a runway of 12 months from Dec, given a £4.4mn cash position.

So…if you need £4-£4.5mn Ops costs p/a and have a GM of say 25%…they need sales of £20mn just to breakeven…last FY £3mn sales.
£20mn rev - £15mn Direct costs - £4.5mn Opex. = BEP approximately…without that they’re still eating into their cash…

Not to say it isn’t doable, if looking at manufacturing contracts but a critical 3 months to secure sizeable contract wins. That creates some SP momentum so any future raise isn’t as dilutive, but gives them a platform to become cash flow positive next FY.

Happy to be corrected here e.g. size of contract potential, GM% etc…

Don’t think my note could have been more upbeat…not sure how you took a negative from it…maybe re-read it…
(but worth you just checking your 65% figure ;-) )

Just my general thoughts…
- Dividend whatever guise seems to be sucking up more energy than necessary. It’s just background noise in this market, we’ve just swung from 16p to 17p today - c 6% (divi equivalent).
- Focus should be on a set of numbers that are really positive and a great outlook, and some now clear momentum upwards and II interest.
- The capital investment for new beds is a moot point as we still have 30% upside from here, and I’d be surprised if Hvivo is standalone at that point.
- From memory, it was around £1.5m to stand up additional c 16-20 beds so not going to make too big a dent.
:-)

I think this is a compelling industry and it looks like a strong management team that has been pulled together.
The information with regards to potential commercial performance though is too limited at the moment in my view:
We know 1st fit out is underway, which I assume is for the whole 40,000 sq.m in phase 1 (of the 195k sq.m in total).
I think they have approx £2.5mn after IPO funding, but a significant build out is underway, and difficult to know how far progressed that is:
- 14 buildings
- Security
- Post harvest processing area
- 200 tonne water tank
- 5 overground bunkers to renovate
- 3 storage buildings

If they were already well underway, there’s a cash run way through to sales, if they’re still early stages I’d think that would leave funding tight, but recognise this is in Greece so funds will go further. It would be useful to get an update to understand what is left to spend to have the site operational.

It would then be useful to get an indicative view on margins for the product - factoring in security, operational staff, energy costs etc… (not sure if the solar installations would cover all energy requirements) etc…

The number of growing cycles and production volume info has been provided, which is good, just hard to be clear on potential - clearly investors saw potential at 30p a share, so a lot must see potential at 10p… but would be good to get some more insight of their plans…just imho…

I’d be very surprised if someone sold down in those volumes just because there’s a slight delay in analysis. It’s gone from <1mn shares traded a day to 9mn… I would have thought it’s a strategic decision to step away from the company / sector. (or they have a very large tax bill due ;-) )
Feels like a very good entry though for folks given FY23 activities…imho

This “could” be a great investment…but there isn’t any info on which to base it…I know there was a prospectus giving some insight, but insufficient to make robust investment decisions on…until that is forthcoming or fundamental news, it will drift…but given the mkt cap is now 1/3 of the launch price, I don’t think that will be lost on the board.
They appear to have a strong team in place which I take as a real positive, but think there’ll be investors on the sidelines waiting for more clarity.
While the SPAC element was a pain, I don’t think it’s the SPAC per se - look at TLSA and Accustem, wasn’t a SPAC, 2 years to spin out and still not launched. Economic climate and regulatory loopholes here wouldn’t have helped. Just imho…

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A 0.25% change in base rate drives a 15% share price fall…
TSX is only down 0.4%…
Something else going on, big chunks have gone through all day…
Not necessarily thinking anything dubious but very odd…

Thought they’d been on there since November, tomorrows just ringing the bell isn’t it??

They mention 17% EBITDA, they’re not going to go to EBIT until after audit I expect.
Exceptions/DA have typically been £2.5-£3mn, so net profit should be around £6mn. Think that’s a significant improvement on last year (£200k from memory).

Superb results on all metrics…
- EBITDA at > 17% puts them 12 months ahead of broker forecasts. Finncap had them at this level end of F23.
- Cash level huge, dividend will attract some new investors, but still leaves cash for acquisition.
- Suspect above is linked to SP improvement, other larger CROs must be looking at it - niche growing profitable market you can’t address organically.

Share the same view Shandy…
Previous years have been lumpy between H1 and H2 so think it’s just a timing thing (can’t be that difficult to do business planning as primarily assessing 10-12 contracts only - a little flippant on my part).
FY21 was £22mn H1 and £15mn H2, so can be varied and fully get why they want to remove that lumpiness…increased order book, broadening services through Hlab and ideally more chunky run rate business from Venn will help with that.
They called out c£50mn at the Capital Markets Day (2nd Nov), and it was the “Vox markets 2022 in Review” on the 20th Dec where MK stated “aligned to still deliver £50mn in revenue…” so should be thereabouts along with decent profitability - fundamentally changes the financial metrics/ratios analysts see along with making acquisition business cases more credible - in my view they’ll be acquired this FY.

While helpful to some degree, would still like more detailed info from them - no idea on rev forecast, costs of operation, cash burn to get up to capacity, or scale of development if only using profit from sales etc…
Is £17mn m cap good value - no idea… think it has potential but would like more data from them - q and a through investormeet or similar would be useful…

Interesting week coming up!!
At the Capital Markets Day (2nd Nov), MK stated c£50mn for FY22, and then only 3 weeks ago, re-iterated £50mn rev for this year, so must be nailed on. Assuming 14% EBITDA (their number) gives us £7mn, which aligns with Finncap view for FY22.

If DA costs are consistent with last year at £2.5-£3m would expect an EBIT of £4mn. (noting it’s a trading update rather than results so probably won’t guide on net margin this close to year end).

Gives some nice potential headline stats though for Weds morning…
? Revenue up 28%
? EBITDA up 140%
? EBIT up over 500%

Key question then turns to forward looking period…
Hvivo and FInncap previously calling £55mn, Liberum £60mn for FY23. Think £55mn will be a disappointment given 85%+ booked, and only in Jan still.
(Liberums note 4th Jan stated 90% visibility and only 4 days in at that point)

Personally, I think £60mn is a given, it’s just whether they are confident to call it out or not - only takes one trial to be delayed (for whatever reason) to put it in jeopardy so suspect they’ll forecast lower with the aim of exceeding it in a further trading update later in the year)

In terms of wider narrative, we know MK won’t discuss non-core assets (already confirmed by IR), but would hope some SP momentum can be achieved off any of the following:

1. Service expansion - already seeing this but would be useful if there’s a story around potential inorganic growth here.
2. US expansion / listing
3. Vaxart - latest position / Omicron CS update

At that point, still seems good value. On FY23…PE ratio would only be c x15 on forward looking view (exc non core assets), whereas the likes of Icon and Ergomed are in the x40-50 bracket.

Anyway, just imho…

I’m expecting an Imutex RNS in H1 - it was 30th Sept since last update, can only be one of two scenarios… imv…and will only be a “what’s happening next” RNS…
1) Going to do a ph2a for multivalency - don’t see Hvivo being involved in this case, (least preferred scenario)
2) In vitro study was enough to back up the 2018 ph2b and they can progress to ph3 - but Hvivo sell out before (or dilution of share if funding secured for a ph3 study and Hvivo can’t get a buyer) - don’t see Hvivo helping to fund it, and if investment for a ph3 is secured, opportunity for Hvivo to sell out?
Would ideally see it sold, but an active ph3 would put Imutex in the £200mn bracket (albeit after securing £50mn to run a ph3) just imho…

Good post Dubliner - same mindset as your last paragraph.
I did ask the question to investor relations last week (not just about DiM, also Prep and Imutex) - didn’t get a reply, but chased again earlier today - will advise if I get an insightful response.

Just exploring ValiRx a little more - does appear on the surface to be undervalued given the number of assets and two of these being through ph1…would have expected MC to be £50-£100mn…
I couldn’t find any info on the following, seems some informed posters here, so hoping you may be able to fill the gaps please?
1) Cathy Tralau-Stewart seems to have been acting CSO for a while, any ideas as to why it hasn’t been made permanent as yet?
2) TheoremRX - initially looked like funding was hoping to be secured end of FY21 and then Q1’22, seems to be a holding pattern at the minute, any views on likelihood of this coming to fruition? Seem to be seeing more acquisitions and funding in this sector in recent weeks so seeing if there had been any movement / expectations for progress here?
Cheers!

I think to get a fundraise away 15% below current price is pretty good in this market (seen some real horror shows in the last quarter)..,
Think you can question credibility / honesty, whether it’s a useful use of funds and whether if you are going to raise, should they have looked to go further so it doesn’t come round again any time soon…(but assuming market conditions improve, just go in for what you need now to avoid unnecessary dilution) but an extra £1.5mn in the coffers at 11p doesn’t seem bad to me…

I suspect 3/4s of the companies on AIM don’t have a cash runway that extends beyond 18 months…