Member Info for Greend100

This was the more relevant news for me, board members investing a not insignificant amount…shows confidence in direction of travel. Todays news, while welcome, adds to the cash flow, but buys more time for the turnaround post covid carnage…

https :// youtu.be/7H7aq-UpTA4

Remove spaces - insightful video on new facility with move to Plumbers row.

He’s covered that one off before…he mentioned recently sp would fall off a cliff if he sold any shares so not lost on him, and has no intention of doing so (has also mentioned about extending his lock in (I guess self imposed)).
He only has 2 options :
1) He sees significant long term opportunity for growth so plans to stick around longer than initially intended to grow the business, or
2) Can’t see enough levers to significantly increase the SP so sells out in the near term for whatever is considered a good offer.

They acquired the licence in January from Easton and Dimmock at Warwick Uni to develop the product, then applied for the EU patent on it, now granted (my understanding of it)

Spot on Si…

I am hoping CF is cute enough to manage any short term drop, through good news flow and investor activity.
As discussed before, cash would equate to 4p a share, so not expecting a silly fall, and if there was, think it would be mopped up pretty quickly.
If Schroders were willing to take 4.5% previously, you would have thought there would be wider interest among ii’s to take on holdings at lower levels, he must have had discussions surely?

Hi,
Does anyone know MC value for ACUT? From memory there were 170mn TILS shares, and at a 20:1 consolidation, I’m assuming 8.5m ACUT shares.
At $1.50, that would be a c £9mn MC. Does that seem right to others?
Not sure if anything can be taken from current share price given it’s not actively trading.
Clearly a large fund raise needed but don’t see that as dilutive given expected PR cranking up over coming weeks…
Long way to go to get to Genomic Health acquisition value by Exact mind… :-)

Celadon pharmaceuticals lists tomorrow (formerly Summerway capital) hopefully removes sticking points in the sector??

They aren’t selling the data to them, in the same way Pfizer, Sanofi or any other pharma co hasn’t either.
With a growing array of data, you can’t mine it for insight in a simple way, so need computational models to find out what patterns exist. It’s just outsourcing to a party who has the intelligence to do that work as far as I can tell.

The current SP has very little to do with Orph’s performance in my opinion, financials have stayed pretty consistent with guidance and on a decent trajectory going forward.
If you ignore Covid stocks which have bombed(ODX, GDR etc…), health sector has fallen across the board.
RENX…often cited by CF, is down from 1100p to 300p.
Trellus…70p to 25p-ish
Oxford Nanopore…seen as the darling of the sector last year…700p to 370p
Could go one…but you get the idea…
Where I think he has been culpable is in overstating SP expectation and timescale of delivery, and therefore folks thinking it could outrun the sector downturn, which it clearly hasn’t.
Pipeline the key piece for me going forward…need greater volume of contracts landing, been too quiet Jan-Mar. If you have the capacity, need to see it filled…profit naturally follows if 12-15 challenge studies at £6-7mn can be won each year rather than the 7-8 currently.
Given LSE chat has turned into ADFVN…must be a lot of folks seeing value at this level…

Think that’s a fair assessment - find the guys at the top credible, unlike some peers, but chased the Covid opportunity to the detriment of the wider business. At current market cap, think it’s good value, a couple of binary events in the next 3 months in gov and Vatic, but beyond that, building the wider foundations for growth. Wish them well.

Had shared this with someone else earlier as I was updating FY22 expectations…given the 5p brigade are out in force…
Might be of use to some…

1) Based on us winning another 7 contracts this FY at £6mn a piece, I’ve got a revenue assumption of £64mn for FY22. 7 seems sensible/conservative given there were 5 in August-December, and Challenge agents increasing. That assumes £8mn for Venn, Covid delta characterisation at £6mn, and the remainder being challenge study revenue (phased revenues over an 8 month period from contract RNS so not all in FY22). Doesn’t assume any Covid contracts or the £10mn contracts becoming the norm. If they come off would take Orph north of £70m+ as a minimum (assuming Covid contracts skewed into FY23 revenues).
2) Costs quite difficult to extrapolate due to vagueness of figures in the annual report. Employee costs, Volunteer costs, inventories consumed straightforward, applied some economies of scale based on improved efficiency of staff (clinical staff rather than management) and also contract values increasing so increased revenue not leading to linear increase in costs. “Other expenses” was £6mn last year and not explained - I think extrader got an answer from IR which inferred it was pretty much cost of sale stuff, so assumed that increased with revenue (with a modest efficiency).
That got me to £47mn of cost this year if revenue mid-60s, so adding c £16m to an existing £17mn cash figure to get to £33mn cash as a base case by year end. If contract values > £6mn average or we land some Covid deals, upside from there.

Because the whole sector has taken a kicking…got little to do with Orph imo. Can’t think of any at this end of the market doing better than 6 months ago. Renalytix - often referenced - was 1100p…now 400p. Oxford Nanopore which was a headline ipo last year was 35% down from its high although recovered a little now. Trellus, at ipo up to 70p, now 35p… sector taken a hammering but better buying at this end of the chart than the other if the business is fundamentally strong…

Just to add to Ivys comments…
Loads of influenza vaccines (albeit not universal) and field trials but Orph still getting £10mn Challenge studies…
Position in the clinical trial process important here - speed and limited cost in ph2 creates the demand for CHIMs…prior to more expansive and costly ph3 field trials (although growing discussions about CHIMs in ph3 (see Dr Chris Chiu presentations)).
Think the Covid CHIM is increasingly likely (given pretty much exclusively positive debate), increasingly endemic nature of Covid and intervention medicines….just the timing that’s hurting…

DCR couldn’t they just consolidate shares to a level where they get well above the $1 level?

On the share buy back…agree it’s utterly bonkers given the need for cash in progressing the pipeline.

However given their ability to crank up the PR when it suits, they use $5mn to buy back now, turn up the PR in 6 months, share price climbs and then do a placing for $20mn, which gives significant working capital but GCs stake isn’t diluted any further than it is today?? (just trying to make sense of it all!)

They did have a significant spike in 2017 I think, so this cyclical approach probably isn’t new to them…

I think he’s the same 12toes/Allan Quatermain/Homeboy etc… from ADVFN…same language/narrative…

You have to own them in the first place in order to be able to sell them…

Don’t think it’s that simple JB (doubt you do either ;-) )
As we all know, it’s a very flat market as a whole at the moment, even those heavily feted have taken a hit.
I remember SBTX being heavily touted early 2021, climbed to 75p, and now trading 60% lower. Could go through DDDD, TILS etc… in sector. Outside the sector, see more of the same. GGP, 37p down to 14p…could go on, it’s a common pattern…but does suggest there is value at these levels…

Specifically with Orph, personal view - I think the majority of the reduction is symptomatic of the market at the moment, and a number of factors in that…
- There is probably a little truth in the furlough crowd as cited by Orph, but more probably…
- Improvement in FTSE dragged money back - Aim seemed to gain momentum off the back of Covid (Ncyt etc…) and now seeing more restrain.
- Crypto pulling in the get rich quick crowd
- A realisation this isn’t easy - suspect a lot of money has been lost in the last 9 months and some have packed their bags.
- Market concerns - people holding onto cash as see too much risk in the markets. Fed tapering and improving interest rates will add to that.

I do think the lack of adhering to timelines at Orph helped cause problems. Nothing wrong in my view in terms of business performance, can’t really fault it, but they could have understated and over delivered.

There is a void of investor sessions which doesn’t help - think back 12-18 months…LSE, IG, Proactive, Mello, Investormeet etc… there was one every month. If he wanted to crank things up a bit, he could, and reckon CF knows the game inside out so confident he’ll manage this side when he sees fit!

While there have been big sellers I think currently it’s just pi’s / short term trading imv. Know a few folk who need to release funds here, and will always be cash flow needs, divorce, probate, school fees, bigger house etc… which leads to need to sell (however reluctantly).

The lack of POLB growth doesn’t help. If that was 20p now I think Orph would be doing better. Realistically POLB needs significant time given drug dev timelines and is pretty binary (like Sareum, Synairgen etc…)

I try to look at the fundamentals rather than the share price, and all pretty positive there, so pretty pragmatic about it - enough upside news due, lands when it lands…
Enough positive news due, would like a trading update and 24 month strategic outlook mind…

Anyway just my musings

I’m not sure whether the pandemic falls away this year or not will have any significant bearing on the funding of CHIMs. If it raises its head with a serious mutation it stays high profile, if it becomes endemic with a milder version, easier/less risky to move into challenge studies. Most of Orph revenues come from RSV and Influenza, a mild Coronavirus would just add another string to their bow - Influenza studies will contribute 25mn ish this FY despite being endemic - still a key target for pharma.

Thanks Shandy…
For this FY if they’ve given guidance of £50mn and 90-95% committed, we know they are £45-47mn.
On top of that is the delta characterisation which is meant to be underway, which is £5-6mn so gets us to early 50’s already.
Think my £60mn is conservative as would expect private sector covid studies this FY. Not convinced by government coming through, but if not, can recognise their deposit in the accounts (for this year anyway), possibly a gov omicron characterisation (assume Orph will want to manufacture that anyway), and then any other challenge study contracts - might not all be recognised in FY22 now (assuming they start H2), but given comments around pipeline and still having capacity, even if only £20mn of contracts signed in H1 (3 studies so far from bullish), that should give £10mn into this years rev figures…
Just my thinking based on what we know…