Member Info for Greend100

China do work with foreign companies…quite successfully. C 20% of their GDP is through import of goods/services so someone is selling to them.

It may or may not work out for Cizzle but given AS’s background, China need etc… it’s got a pretty good chance of progressing positively.

Have a few friends who sell significantly into China…they need local partners, have to get partners to accompany them, pay for everything through WeChat and reimburse them etc… etc… so it can be difficult in some respects but it’s not this espionage / IP thieving environment some perceive if to be…

I think it’s clear funding is needed - where that comes from is debatable (cdt, facility, investors, placing etc…) but historically it hasn’t been significant amount and seems to have strong appetite, so personally see it as just background noise, others can be more sensitive to it.

Once news lands (and all research suggests it’s positive, and while 99% confident, can never guarantee it), this should see a step change at least comparable to OBD, probably greater given starting point - look at their SP for 12 months prior to the September news…and the sentiment pre news)

I wouldn’t expect to get in here below 6-8p (as a minimum) when that news lands and it climbs from there as people weigh in. Therefore, more than willing to ride any short term dip given my perceived view of the upside…but that’s just my view, others won’t feel the same…

Apart from LDT clinical trial results, a number of other plates spinning that can add upside (LFT, regulator discussions, other cancer biomarker developments, greater strategic partnership involvement e.g BioTechne, new market agreements, broader cancer therapies etc…) and given AS’s approach, happy to wait for material news rather than drive volatility with random comms…

I think you’re giving a little too much credibility to their postings… emotional, libellous diatribe…and has been for months/years…

Having said that, every board on LSE has a couple…

Https://investors.bio-techne.com/press-releases/detail/389/bio-techne-appoints-kim-kelderman-as-chief-executive-officer

Worth a read - appointed ceo after previously heading their diagnostics division…

“Under Mr. Kelderman's leadership, DGS commercialized the ExoDx Prostate test, doubled the revenue of its spatial biology business (ACD), successfully completed the acquisitions of both Asuragen and Lunaphore, and positioned the business for growth through numerous new product introductions and partnerships.“

“During Mr. Kelderman's last three years at Thermo Fisher Scientific, he led its Genetic Sciences Division where he was responsible for the instrumentation, software, consumables and assay businesses, including the Applied Biosystems and Affymetrix brands”

“…his background identifying, executing, and integrating M&A transactions will all be critical as Bio-Techne continues to execute its growth strategy going forward”

Not sure about the insider bit…think they play it completely with a straight bat from what I’ve seen…have complete confidence in them in that regard… I’ve messaged AS a couple of times for clarification on specifics, and his replies don’t give anything away.

He has mentioned before he’ll only RNS significant info…personally expect first RNS re clinical trials will be that they’re done… if they did increase comms it just encourages volatility as folk try to time buys/sells…current approach avoids that (sat at 2p for months now as folk wait for significant news and don’t want to be out when it lands (assuming positive news) as SP will open at 6-8p (my guess).

Agree they could extend their reach beyond Stockbox/Director talks, a new Hardman update wouldn’t go amiss, but think they are confident in their product and their key stakeholders are partners (punch above their weight in that regard) and SP will take care of itself as they progress…

Interesting info OAPK…

Another positive for society, but if I park that and look at the investor threat…sensitivity still a lot lower… “ For early-stage (I-III) patients, the sensitivity of MCDBT-1 was 59.8% ”. Fair to assume the Stage I/II is significantly lower than that. Trying to find out how easy it is to achieve high throughput with it.

Grail still way behind…”The overall sensitivity of the MCED test was 66.3%, ranging from 24.2% in stage I cancers to 95.3% in stage IV”.

Just need Cizzle to show anything around 90%+ at stage 1…couple that with high throughput (cheap cost), LFT development and potential CIZ-1 biomarkers for other cancers, utterly compelling…

Would like to see timelines though (appreciate why they don’t)…and still think they’ll get taken out (or partnered) sooner rather than later so someone with bigger pockets/influence can expedite commercialisation…

I’m assuming they are previous placing shares, hence E3 reference from OAPK below - been on and off for a few months. Difficult to know what proportion of rounded sells fall under this, but got to c. 25ish 250k sells in the last 3 months, and lots of others at 500k/300k/200k/150k/100k etc…

Always at min price of where we are now…

Need some news to push the volume through…

the results are as expected, moving in right direction, but lack of forward looking statement leaves people a little in the dark as to speed of progress.

quick *** packet calc, they need to get to c £14mn revenue to get to breakeven ebit assuming 50% gm, and admin costs increasing from £5m to £6m to cover increased growth (probably being generous here), and then c £1mn below ebitda line…

they’re clearly heading in the right direction, just speed of travel that leads to volatility on the market…things never happen as quickly as folk would like them to…

Personally think way too much is being made of the Conduit piece…

At the moment, Cizzle have sufficient funds, and as Jace points out, clinical trials should be able use retrospective blood records so results of the trial will be quick, giving a significant share price inflection point in the near term if OBD is anything to go by... (multiple of x9 from current SP and Ciz is a standalone test with the potential for LFT aswell). Other potential news re LFT progress, new markets, wider cancer biomarkers, China etc… could also drive uplift in SP in the not too distant).

Therefore, if they choose to seek additional funding at that point they can do do from a position of strength with less dilution…investor interest doesn’t appear to have been a problem previously - take the £350k in June as an example at a price negligibly below the SP at the time, so if they take that route all well and good.

If they don’t raise through new share issue, they have other options, so a nice place to be…

They have talked previously about building a portfolio of other assets, so not a given by any stretch that they would seek to sell their CDT stake any time soon.

They have also talked about licencing their test so it enables greater integration with partner platforms, creating indirect revenue stream…to this end, do think the BioTechne tie up is going to develop into something substantially bigger than most think…

Not sure it matters at the moment… it’s followed the typical path of most new biotech launches on Nasdaq from what I’ve seen…

There’s enough potential applications as an immunomodulator so not a one trick pony…given the science knowledge at Cizzle, close allies to AstraZeneca who had the dev in the first place and the various investors who bought into the potential, think we can assume they’ve done some due diligence on the opportunity…

😂 He only got back at the weekend… 2 1/2 working days have passed since 🤷

I don’t think timescales are anything like that long personally…they can use existing records, just need to be done in an accredited lab as far as I can find out… (see below, last sentence the key bit, rest for context)

Laboratory developed tests (LDTs) are a subset of IVDs, created by a laboratory and then used on-site at that laboratory. They are not sold commercially as an IVD for other parties to use, but the laboratory that creates the LDT charges a fee for providing results. LDTs are also subject to the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA), but that is a separate regulatory framework that does not limit FDA’s oversight. While CLIA does require quality standards for all laboratory testing to ensure the accuracy, reliability and timeliness of patient test results, it does not require that an LDT meet the same safety and efficacy requirements that come from FDA oversight. “As a result, an LDT created and used in a laboratory does not need data to support the validity of the test in clinical use”

Agree completely Brondby…

The OBD news is fantastic, but closer to home, aside from lung cancer, the underlying scientific principles with Ciz1B re fibrinogen offers scope for other cancers aswell.

A number of inflection points around Clinical trial start, China partnership, other markets, regulatory agreements, LFT progress etc… in the meantime…all bodes well…happy to see the slow burn here…

12/13 October

I think it’s each to their own, but anyone on a short term strategy are going to miss out significantly here imho…

Although we’ve seen a slight rise over the last couple of weeks, that’s consistent with the funding security from conduit.

Given the strength of comms from Biotechne ($bn companies don’t get into partnerships with minnows on a whim), the high throughput testing in lab giving sufficient confidence to proceed to clinical trials all appears to be going very well…

If we look at OBD, which was fantastic news medically (get yourselves checked folks when the PSE is readily available!)…they achieve 94% sensitivity - when used alongside the PSA test - not in isolation…and are currently sat 9x the CIZ mcap.

Hitting 90%+ here with a single test, and with scope to target other cancers, and before looking at being able to do it via LFT…the upside is huge…

Agree - was also incorrect about cdt…

Comments:

1) Questionable business model.

Seriously? In what way - looking forward to the reply on that one…

2) Huge options given to CEO. - why is that an issue, motivation to push the share price on - in his interest to actively drive the SP higher over next 16 months as life changing upside for him…

3) Lack of dividend despite the huge cash in bank

If you want a large dividend buy Vodafone - don’t see the point of any dividend personally, think cash could be better employed seeking inorganic growth opportunities, not sure why you’d want a larger dividend from a company in an immature growth phase.

4) History of missing expectations, missed spin offs, eg DiM.

Scraping barrel here…18 months in, what target has he missed? You’re referencing pre MK days…

Taking it as a bullish sign that you’re putting the effort in…have sufficient knowledge to show you’ve spent some time in understanding the business and financially literate to try and sow doubt… but not enough to suggest you know the business in great detail…

The other points re Ergomed selling at 28% above SP are immaterial…it’s down to perceived current value / future growth opportunity and financial metrics point to more material upside.

Just coming back to the main subject rather than Conduit…the more I read on Biotechne, the more it feels like this is going to be a far stronger tie-up…

In their recent investor presentation (see Biotechne investor relations), 81% of their business comes from consumables (proteins, immunoassays, antibodies, reagents aswell as the analytical instruments), suggests they’d provide one far more than just Jess…

On slide 16, they refer to “develop and manufacture of genetic and oncology diagnostic kits for research and clinical applications”, and in slide 90 refer to ExoDX Prostate test which looks like a full diagnostic kit rather than just components…so may become involved in the LFT side aswell…

Then just to cause trouble…their M&A activity is significant, a couple of acquisitions a year…they cite on slide 26 their key M&A drivers:

1. Identify fast growing and/or game changing technologies that can scale

2. Integrate acquisitions that fill product or technology gaps

3. Strengthen diagnostic and analytical capabilities that leverage our consumables portfolio (hence referencing it initially as it will pull through mAbs, reagents etc…)

4. Support continued expansion of footprint in Europe and Asia

What happens where Cizzle meet all their M&A criteria??

From Vela RNS this morning…useful confirmation re PUT option…

· On 20 April Vela entered into a put option for the potential sale of its economic interest in AZD1656 for a total consideration of £4.0 million. The option was granted by Conduit Pharmaceuticals Limited ("Conduit") and Murphy Canyon Acquisition Corp ('Murphy'), a company listed on NASDAQ. Should the option be exercised by Vela, the consideration that would be payable to Vela would be satisfied through the issuance of new shares in the combined company (now called Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc.). Vela paid Conduit £400,000 as the premium for the option.

Also in September, Conduit completed its merger with Murphy and its shares listed on NASDAQ on 25 September 2023 as Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc. ("Conduit Inc."). The put option, referred to above under 'key developments', is now exercisable. Accordingly, it is now open to Vela to exchange its £2.75 million economic interest in AZD1656 for £4 million worth of Conduit Inc. shares.

Worth responding on this one…

1. Agree that a more aggressive revenue growth would be preferable, but think that has been constrained by operational factors in the main. However, if they can see another 12% next FY, that would see them to c £62mn from organic growth.

2. More critically, EBITDA is pushing towards 20% through multiple efficiencies e.g. less agency staff

3. Depreciation/Amortisation typically £2-3m per annum.

4. That would give EBIT of c £9mn this FY.

5. Resulting PE at current share price is 15

6. Private Equity firm Permira deemed Ergomed sufficiently valuable to purchase at a PE of x45…

7. Would suggest Hvivo still significantly undervalued…