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Re Sunday Roast podcast - always have mixed views about this…good to get publicity but also struggle a little re the limited depth of what is explained to listeners…to be expected given range of companies covered.
Thought it would be worth putting some quick notes down in case any new investors take a look in…just off the top of my head, so anyone else feel free to add anything I’ve missed :-)
- Developed out of a research project from York Uni, still operate research from there, 20 years of research under Professor Dawn Coverley leading to current position.
- Key principle being that a CIZ1B protein was identified as associated with Lung Cancer, and critically as it gets absorbed by Fibrinogen, sufficient concentration enables it to be identified at Stage 1 lung cancer rather than latter stages. Typically, lung cancer only identified at stages 3/4, where 5 yr survival is < 10%. Clearly huge benefits in being able to identify and treat quicker.
- Numerous international patents protecting their IP.
- Key piece was then being able to take a laboratory proven test, and make it commercially viable and now have a high throughput Lab developed test which is very close to commercial launch.
- This will initially be in the US, and have a partnership with Corepath laboratories.
- As an already approved oncology testing lab, Corepath cover 22 states and development has a faster track to market launch.
- One very significant development is that they have recently successfully completed an evaluation programme using BioTechne’s high throughput machines giving a big step to commercial launch. BioTechne ($10bn US biotech) also produce monoclonal antibodies, reagents etc… required for the Lab developed test, aswell as having capabilities in lateral flow test production etc…
- Clinical testing is currently underway with Cizzle recently stating they hope to have the test commercially launched in the very near term.
- Away from the US, also have an agreement with ICCAMT in China where significant lung cancer problem (partnership between Bosch, Sinopharm), Allan Syms recently in China (last month). Had concerns whether this wasn’t progressing but AS talked positively about the relationship last month.
- Critically, also looking to develop a lateral flow test which can be used in clinical setting rather than needing to be sent to a lab. Announced c 3 months ago they were accelerating this development and again will benefit from the BioTechne relationship here.
- OBD recently announced a successful prostate cancer test which saw their market cap increase to c £80mn, Ciz currently down at < 10% of that. Additionally, OBD test has a 94% sensitivity when used alongside the traditional PSA test. Cizzle’s test has a 95% sensitivity standalone.
- Away from the lung cancer test, also looking at developments for other cancers using the same application as with CIZ1B to look at use of their developments as companion diagnostics + other
Thanks for the detailed post Neil…the therapeutic piece 032/033) is something that hasn’t received much focus yet from investors…will try and do some digging over the weekend from your lead!
Buffalo…thanksgiving today, but hopefully cdt keeps momentum tomorrow …
Difficult to be specific…
In the Directors Talk interview 20th Sept, Allan mentions completing our clinical trials (7 mins 20) so suggests underway.
Given they can use retrospective blood records and they reference taking the approach of Higgins et al work in 2012, which only took 50 or so blood samples, it’s not a long process - it’s using Corepath lab for the LDT so accredited lab for oncology biopsies in the US and therefore sign off is expedited. However, the logistics around it, documenting it, sign off etc… will take a while but they were on with it two months ago. In short, could be tomorrow, could be a couple of months, but not likely to be longer than that imho…
Looking through Bio-Techne investor press releases, if I park their results announcements and product launches, we end up with the following commercial agreements below… three things stand out:
1. Commercial agreements as precursor to acquisition (happened with both Lunaphore and Wilson Wolf)
2. Cizzle punching well above their weight in terms of company they are keeping
3. Why highlight the Evaluation programme with Cizzle - if we were just testing assays on their product, we’d just be buying / leasing one of the 8,000 machines they’ve already installed - feels like a huge underlying signal when it’s being called out in their IR releases…
29th Sept - Collaboration with Thermo Scientific (Fisher)
19th Sept - Biotechne & Cizzle announce completion of evaluation programme
10th July - Biotechne complete acquisition of Lunaphore
17th April - Biotechne and Lunaphore agree strategic partnership
3rd April - Biotechne completes $257mn investment in Wilson Wolf for 20% stake, rights to acquire remainder for $1bn.
1st March - Biotechne announces investment in Wilson Wolf
14th Feb - Biotechne and Cell Signalling Technology announce partnership to validate simple western antibodies
Installed base of Simple Western Platform (Jess) c 4k machines…add Ella and Maurice…8,000 of them installed…why call out Cizzle testing assays on their machines…lots of companies must test their products on Bio-Techne machines…
Interesting bullets at start of the Bio-Techne Q1 results announced end of October…
7 call-outs from a $1bn turnover business… 3 of them consistent with Cizzle markets (whether product segment or operating markets)…good to know Cizzle are in their growth markets
- Our ExoDx prostate test and GMP proteins continued their growth trajectories with test volume increasing 49% and revenue increasing 39%, respectively.
- Our ProteinSimple branded portfolio of instruments and consumables services increased 9% in the quarter and grew over 18% excluding China.
- Strong commercial execution in EMEA led to first quarter organic growth of 15% in the region.
Was just listening to the Directors Talk interview 20/09 again…
02:05 - “We have a 95% sensitive test for the presence of CIZ1B and therefore able to detect very early stage 1 lung cancer” - no might or may, we have.
03:43 - “Great endorsement and credibility that our assay works extremely well on their particular piece of equipment”
They have already been working with Biotechne, it works on Jess providing high throughput so a known fact - they just need to prove it in the clinical test with Corepath.
07:29 - “complete clinical tests with our US partners”
Last Thursday on the Corepath video call - “…in the market in the very near term…”
He’s not one for overstatement…so feeling very confident in progress…
Near term could be this week, could be 3 months away, who knows, but does seem as if all other boxes have been ticked…
(still think there’ll also be a Biotechne / LFT update in the not too distant)
There only seems to be 1 1/2 people that are disillusioned (Joe only gets 1/2 as it depends on the day) - everyone else seems enthusiastic about the potential.
If you posted credible research as to why you thought Cizzle are a poor investment people are always open to contrary opinions…but “it’s down 80%” is tedious…
- ABDX floated 110p 3 years back, now 10p
- Angle…140p down to 10p
- OBD was 200p, down to 10p, flatlined for 6 months before material news pushed it up to 50p…
Could go on, there are many…
Not seeing much P&D here though…more well researched investors who feel there are significant upsides to current SP… could be 1p, wouldn’t make any difference, in general, investors waiting for material inflection points of which there are several potential ones in the coming weeks…
All the best.
I think this is the Higgins et al study from 2012 which is referred to in the Cizzle prospectus… only did 49 retrospective samples, so hopefully quick process to complete clinical testing…
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22421194/
From BioTechne’s key M&A drivers:
1. Identify fast growing and/or game changing technologies that can scale
2. Integrate acquisitions that fill product or technology gaps
3. Strengthen diagnostic and analytical capabilities that leverage our consumables portfolio (hence referencing it previously as it will pull through mAbs, reagents etc…)
4. Support continued expansion of footprint in Europe and Asia
China do work with foreign companies…quite successfully. C 20% of their GDP is through import of goods/services so someone is selling to them.
It may or may not work out for Cizzle but given AS’s background, China need etc… it’s got a pretty good chance of progressing positively.
Have a few friends who sell significantly into China…they need local partners, have to get partners to accompany them, pay for everything through WeChat and reimburse them etc… etc… so it can be difficult in some respects but it’s not this espionage / IP thieving environment some perceive if to be…
I think it’s clear funding is needed - where that comes from is debatable (cdt, facility, investors, placing etc…) but historically it hasn’t been significant amount and seems to have strong appetite, so personally see it as just background noise, others can be more sensitive to it.
Once news lands (and all research suggests it’s positive, and while 99% confident, can never guarantee it), this should see a step change at least comparable to OBD, probably greater given starting point - look at their SP for 12 months prior to the September news…and the sentiment pre news)
I wouldn’t expect to get in here below 6-8p (as a minimum) when that news lands and it climbs from there as people weigh in. Therefore, more than willing to ride any short term dip given my perceived view of the upside…but that’s just my view, others won’t feel the same…
Apart from LDT clinical trial results, a number of other plates spinning that can add upside (LFT, regulator discussions, other cancer biomarker developments, greater strategic partnership involvement e.g BioTechne, new market agreements, broader cancer therapies etc…) and given AS’s approach, happy to wait for material news rather than drive volatility with random comms…
Https://investors.bio-techne.com/press-releases/detail/389/bio-techne-appoints-kim-kelderman-as-chief-executive-officer
Worth a read - appointed ceo after previously heading their diagnostics division…
“Under Mr. Kelderman's leadership, DGS commercialized the ExoDx Prostate test, doubled the revenue of its spatial biology business (ACD), successfully completed the acquisitions of both Asuragen and Lunaphore, and positioned the business for growth through numerous new product introductions and partnerships.“
“During Mr. Kelderman's last three years at Thermo Fisher Scientific, he led its Genetic Sciences Division where he was responsible for the instrumentation, software, consumables and assay businesses, including the Applied Biosystems and Affymetrix brands”
“…his background identifying, executing, and integrating M&A transactions will all be critical as Bio-Techne continues to execute its growth strategy going forward”
Not sure about the insider bit…think they play it completely with a straight bat from what I’ve seen…have complete confidence in them in that regard… I’ve messaged AS a couple of times for clarification on specifics, and his replies don’t give anything away.
He has mentioned before he’ll only RNS significant info…personally expect first RNS re clinical trials will be that they’re done… if they did increase comms it just encourages volatility as folk try to time buys/sells…current approach avoids that (sat at 2p for months now as folk wait for significant news and don’t want to be out when it lands (assuming positive news) as SP will open at 6-8p (my guess).
Agree they could extend their reach beyond Stockbox/Director talks, a new Hardman update wouldn’t go amiss, but think they are confident in their product and their key stakeholders are partners (punch above their weight in that regard) and SP will take care of itself as they progress…
Interesting info OAPK…
Another positive for society, but if I park that and look at the investor threat…sensitivity still a lot lower… “ For early-stage (I-III) patients, the sensitivity of MCDBT-1 was 59.8% ”. Fair to assume the Stage I/II is significantly lower than that. Trying to find out how easy it is to achieve high throughput with it.
Grail still way behind…”The overall sensitivity of the MCED test was 66.3%, ranging from 24.2% in stage I cancers to 95.3% in stage IV”.
Just need Cizzle to show anything around 90%+ at stage 1…couple that with high throughput (cheap cost), LFT development and potential CIZ-1 biomarkers for other cancers, utterly compelling…
Would like to see timelines though (appreciate why they don’t)…and still think they’ll get taken out (or partnered) sooner rather than later so someone with bigger pockets/influence can expedite commercialisation…
I’m assuming they are previous placing shares, hence E3 reference from OAPK below - been on and off for a few months. Difficult to know what proportion of rounded sells fall under this, but got to c. 25ish 250k sells in the last 3 months, and lots of others at 500k/300k/200k/150k/100k etc…
Always at min price of where we are now…
Need some news to push the volume through…
the results are as expected, moving in right direction, but lack of forward looking statement leaves people a little in the dark as to speed of progress.
quick *** packet calc, they need to get to c £14mn revenue to get to breakeven ebit assuming 50% gm, and admin costs increasing from £5m to £6m to cover increased growth (probably being generous here), and then c £1mn below ebitda line…
they’re clearly heading in the right direction, just speed of travel that leads to volatility on the market…things never happen as quickly as folk would like them to…
Personally think way too much is being made of the Conduit piece…
At the moment, Cizzle have sufficient funds, and as Jace points out, clinical trials should be able use retrospective blood records so results of the trial will be quick, giving a significant share price inflection point in the near term if OBD is anything to go by... (multiple of x9 from current SP and Ciz is a standalone test with the potential for LFT aswell). Other potential news re LFT progress, new markets, wider cancer biomarkers, China etc… could also drive uplift in SP in the not too distant).
Therefore, if they choose to seek additional funding at that point they can do do from a position of strength with less dilution…investor interest doesn’t appear to have been a problem previously - take the £350k in June as an example at a price negligibly below the SP at the time, so if they take that route all well and good.
If they don’t raise through new share issue, they have other options, so a nice place to be…
They have talked previously about building a portfolio of other assets, so not a given by any stretch that they would seek to sell their CDT stake any time soon.
They have also talked about licencing their test so it enables greater integration with partner platforms, creating indirect revenue stream…to this end, do think the BioTechne tie up is going to develop into something substantially bigger than most think…
Not sure it matters at the moment… it’s followed the typical path of most new biotech launches on Nasdaq from what I’ve seen…
There’s enough potential applications as an immunomodulator so not a one trick pony…given the science knowledge at Cizzle, close allies to AstraZeneca who had the dev in the first place and the various investors who bought into the potential, think we can assume they’ve done some due diligence on the opportunity…