RE: Lol20 Mar 2025 14:30
I don’t think we are wildly different re expected outcomes TT 🥳…but probably have a different view on impact…
1. “Cizzle's LT Revenue Projections are very poor” - I don’t think they are given your income pretty much passes through to profit. Difficult to be clear on BIO revs as wasn’t explicit if just lung cancer related or wider, but they were robust by yr 3. However think it might be a moot point as expect they get purchased before the more significant yr 3 revenues.
2) “Cizzle is not in control any more, and US companies tend to want a US listing, or go private”
Ref Private… “That will bust all shareholders if it happens”
It’s inconvenient if it went private but you don’t lose your money, it’s just more illiquid (short term pain as per Hornby plc). Lang and Roberts are in for a £1m between them. I agree it’ll go US, think that’s inevitable, but not sure it’s in BIOs interest to acquire given looking at licencing multiple tests, and they only pay 10% licencing fee, long payback. Could see it being more likely someone like BIO-Techne given they can benefit from the consumables (reagents etc…) aswell.
3) “The test is easier to carry out than CT, but similar cost etc. major traction depends on internal politics in healthcare in USA”
It’s likely to be belt and braces though… as per Moffitt study… with 70% false positives on a CT, if you can run the LDT off the back of the CT positive, with a 95% sensitivity, you wouldn’t do all the follow on invasive procedures if it was a negative reading. Re fragmented healthcare system, agree it will be a slow burn but with the BIO personnel they are well placed to navigate (OBD sales show how badly it can go if you don’t have people in the market with the right experience).
4. Re shareholder treatment, agree, but for me at least, it suggests working to specific milestones rather than pushing out glib news to sustain placings etc… so while annoying to us retail folk I suspect there’s a binary plan to deliver on and we’re background noise (more so where no funding needed).
Sign In
Follow the stocks
