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I can see it being at that level by summer Soton… what happens after that, who knows.

Sector more in vogue, US falling out of favour - extent to which that brings funding to the UK FTSE is TBD - clearly happening but longevity of it an unknown… VF itself recovering, increasingly strong in emerging markets, smart investments e.g. AST, new growth technologies eg Satellite through partners rather than high capital requirement… conversely difficult to offset mobile erosion esp in weakening economy… time will tell but looks promising at the moment…

I’m surprised this has held up as much as it has given buoyant market elsewhere…as an investment it’s been woeful (to date)…£5mn market cap after 4 years since a £22mn IPO…and as others infer, no accountability.

I’m not convinced there are issues with the test …BIO must have spent £3-4m+ to get to this point, you aren’t doing that without knowing it’s commercially viable, it’d be utter folly to do otherwise.

I can see there might be other factors - possibly government shutdown slowing them down and some states taking longer to approve - New York slower typically and assume you’d want all lined up before launching. Also didn’t seem like Omnihealth DX were in a position to hit the ground running do could see that needing more time (aswell as getting up to speed after the iGenome handover). May be a funding question still…not convinced payments to Cizzle plc are on schedule and may be why they’ve got the Lang safety net. However, for AS to suggest it’s live by year end…you wouldn’t do that unless you thought you were nearly there!

Re comms… I just don’t see it improving. A quarterly Directors Talk interview where the first 5 mins are repetitive is clearly inadequate and with no effort at all to extend interest / investor base. The cause is utterly admirable but given their approach to investor engagement, AS is talking to the exact same audience each time, so no benefit in revisiting the context each time. Having said this, AS isn’t naive so I wonder if they are working to an end game and therefore shareholder engagement is less critical than in other cases…there again it was this bad 3 years ago…

I’m thinking they are more likely to be acquired once CLIA approved as should be a material change in both value and opportunity. BIO reckon they are worth $70mn while the UK licence holder is at a mere £5mn, should be easy pickings. Could also see BIO seeking to go public / seek partner investment to accelerate roll out as current speed isn’t adequate and the US are far less pedestrian than the UK.

Given timescales since last RNS, suspect there’ll be an update this/next week, whether it’s the news we are seeking…time will tell.

These things clearly take time and I struggle to see how BIO can be criticised for the progress they’ve made in the last 12 months - built a strong team, economic model through ASCO, Tasso dev, validation steps, multiple partners signed for studies etc… my only concern is scale of funding to roll out but assume a partner model will be forthcoming in the coming months.

As for the UK Plc, there are only four of them. AS predominantly full time, DC has a research lab to run aswell, and then two part-timers so progress from the licence holder isn’t going to be as quick as desired, I can’t see them expanding the team to expedite progress otherwise this would have been done previously…

In terms of criticism, there are a few key weaknesses imv…and shared by most I assume…

1. Commercial directorship - pace could be increased in terms of other regions. Validation processes will always take time but non-scientific elements you would expect could have been expedited.

2. Lack of comms - age old issue which hasn’t improved. Still using Directors Talk which is very limited, no Q&A, no attempt to engage new investors, 3-4 trades a day the result of lack of visibility. Assumption is they are relying on milestones to realise value but still feels way too passive.

3. Economic with the truth - not unique to Ciz by any stretch, communicate after issue has been resolved - there are a couple of occasions where goalposts have changed but with no explanation…namely mAb production from Proteogenix to BBI and then the move from iGenomeDX to OmnihealthDX, the pathfinder narrative didn’t feel accurate. You’d expect things to go wrong / need to change direction, but would be beneficial if there was a more honest dialogue.

As an investor it’s hard to argue too much with you OldMoot given SP is languishing at 1.5p and MC at £5mn is way below the IPOd £22mn…. so far, it’s fundamentally underperformed and purely from an investors perspective you’d clearly have been better off invested elsewhere.

(There’s no doubting the company aim is a very worthwhile one and hope it flies globally to help improve prognosis of those with a positive LC diagnosis.)

Anyway, given CLIA accreditation, launch, grant funding, UK LoI conversion (hopefully) etc… are “near term” hoping Q1 ‘26 finally sees value being realised… it’s been a painful wait but fundamentals still seem positive (to me at least)…

(hopefully no RNS before Christmas…)

Merry Christmas all!

Hi Hogbog,

Not sure I should offer views on timescales…got it wrong last time!

We know it was end of Sept when AS was saying it’ll be in the hands of doctors in H2…so on that basis you’d say imminent. However, suspect this might be New Year for launch now, and hope it is given disruption of Thanksgiving/Christmas.

I’m still thinking there is other news that we could/should see before launch, so this year.

They must have submitted clinical data using the commercial mAbs to obtain CLIA accreditation. We’ve not seen that data as yet, but given they’re still calling out 95% sensitivity and meant to be launching this quarter, you’d like to think the commercial test is in line with the lab one. They’d lack credibility to sit down two weeks ago with the likes of Caris and AZ and talk about their commercial test if the data wasn’t up to scratch a few weeks later (not sure there is a lot to draw from their attendance at the NY event. AZ connection goes back years…including St.George Capital/Conduit drug do might just be calling in contacts. Likewise, new recruit Dr Mark Miglarese was at Caris so might just be ex-colleagues)

They’d also need the clinical data to cover off the ethnicity question. One third of the population of US is black / Hispanic, so can’t launch without proof point its effective for those ethnicities. So, I’m expecting pre-launch, publication of clinical validity and also CLIA accreditation.

Linked to those is the Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement confirmation. I’d expect that to come quite quickly after launch. Launch would be for privately funded tests, but the insurer approval is fundamental to broader roll out. Given Dr Greeno’s experience in that area, driving federal policy etc… and J Hinkel’s work on economics of the test you’d think that is straightforward. In the case of OBD reimbursement approval was only one week after launch.

There is then the timing re LoI for UK partner and China. I exchanged messages with Tim M a couple of weeks back and mentioned China is still in scope but subject to CLIA accreditation, so “may” get something on that in short order after US CLIA approval. Can’t imagine it will be quick to implement but anything that takes the Alliance/MoU and leads to commercial contract will be interesting - recognise lot of folks see this as a double-edged sword.

In the background, still expect a partner to come on board in the US to help speed up rollout. BIO have previously stated they also want LATAM licence and not convinced they have funds. Once they have the two tests CLIA compliant, suggests greater scope for a tie up and diagnostics increasing in focus.

Note all the above is in the hands of BIO…extent to which UK Plc push the good news remains to be seen.

Just personal take on where they are at..

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