Member Info for Greend100

To be fair HarChris, he has managed 20 posts in an hour so is sharing his wisdom around. I'm just questioning now whether to park my year of research on Tils, degree in Immunology etc... and continue with my view or take his guidance...choices...choices...

Why is it on your watchlist if you don't trust the company? Curious criteria for a watchlist...

Feels the same as January...share price 28p on 5th Jan, down to 23p late Jan so c 20% reduction. Lot of chatter on here was "where's Cathal", "no presentations booked in", "why no news", then it all kicked in, and three months later SP had doubled. Back in similar situation in my view...so much news due, just time...Other recent devs re Serum Inst and Porton Down also positive IMHO.

Stumbled across this article which might be of interest...
Talks about phase 3 study for Covid in US using three immune modulators, one being Remicade (Infliximab), Anti-IL6 but humanised not human mAb and requires IV administration. Results due any time now but if shows a positive effect using humanised Infliximab, bodes well for TZLS-501 and Foralumab.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-large-clinical-trial-test-immune-modulators-treatment-covid-19

As they will only discuss info in the public domain at that time, and Dr Weiner is there, I'd like to think we get an RNS in the morning on starting the progressive MS ph2 trial which is due this quarter. Also have Crohns, CV19 and Accustem that could be discussed as Q2 devs so hoping its new info rather than recycling existing known activity.
Re investor relations/comms, can't see that improving (they've had long enough to address it) so have to accept it. They're a small team of brilliant scientists (c.14 people plus scientific board), I don't see them growing, expect drugs to be taken to market/licenced through a third party at the relevant point down the line. IMHO

Still sat in the background (along with other lth's)...waiting for news. While completely bought into the science, don't understand why TILS haven't pushed TZLS-501. I initially assumed it would be used for the Brazil trial rather than Foralumab...given Tocilizumab (Actemra) from Roche is anti-IL6 and considered effective, but is IV and humanised...would have thought nasal delivery of TILS' fully human mAb would be obvious to expedite. However, while news releases have talked about expediting its progression last March, 12 months on, it's still only at IND stage / Phase 1 - due to start this quarter.
The board clearly aren't daft...so thinking the November Foralumab trial gave them the info, firstly to push to ph2 for Crohns/MS but also to look at using them in combination with 501?
The anti-vitals task force announced yesterday would suggest a huge opportunity here...must be stuff going on in the background and doubt TILS will be direct into government, but can see a tie up with a partner such as Roche who have the weight/ties to drive commercialisation (UK govt throwing money around and Roche can't target drugs for home use with IV delivery only (at the moment)...
Things too quiet currently....they aren't sat on their hands...think it could get more interesting in the not too distant...IMHO...

No, you're right DG, same thing.

I'm with Fatherted...I suspect a deal/deals would be imminent...given the speed of technology change and growing competition in that sector, I would have thought the timeframe would be pushed by wearable cos (less so pharma)...trying to find a step change/differentiation in each new iteration of a device isn't easy, awful lot to lose if they don't continually innovate and quickly...

Just adding some general thoughts after last nights' presentation...happy to be corrected, as probably missed / misinterpreted something...
1) Immune Modulator (with various add ons) spun out this month as Orph Pharma. I'm assuming seek will be the second one a couple of weeks later, so interesting month coming up.
2) Imutex I'm currently assuming will be a q later, but unclear on timings there, and doesn't appear to be in our control, assuming it gets bought by Conservbio or we get a stake in the new biz?
3) DIM (happy for the waiting game here) will be back end of year but where I see the greatest upside...personally think this will be off the scale...value of data (generally, not just health) only going one way, increasing market competition in the wearables market, increasing health paranoia and desire for control etc...
4) By my analysis, Invesco still at 2% but no longer relevant, and will be out asap, given daily volumes now and assume folk will buy in over the coming fortnight to get the spin out shares so volumes should stay high.
5) Like the RSV challenge study price increases - Aug RSV £4mn, Mar RSV £7.5mn - might not be like for like, but suggests higher price point and margin.
6) Would really like to see 1-2 of the Covid Challenge studies announced to show elevated price point, but suspect they might be being held back until Characterisation study completed?
7) Assuming we take a little drop after the spin out, but if it ties in (roughly) with RNSs on CHIMs and FY results / positive outlook, should be short lived.
8) St.Pancras speculation - "not going to stand still..." - anyone got further insight on this site?
Thanks and GLA...

Intelligent pragmatism as usual Roker...
(Keep up the current form and looks like NE derby back on the cards next season...!)

I don't think yesterday helped in any way tbh...
1) Accustem was a holding statement, process underway, suspect could be another Q before hitting the market, but we know it will happen at some point...I can live with that. I would have liked detail around CE marking, approvals, trial King in Milan etc... just to get an update on developments.
2) Covid trial - previously hoping for US for visibility but can clearly see need/availability/structure in place for Brazil given just done P1 there. However, no details on the trial, timing etc... We already knew there would be a P2.
3) Progressive MS - we know a P2 is due to go live this quarter but no details provided.
4) Bloomberg "interview" - use the term loosely, it will have frustrated GC more than us.
Struggled for positives yesterday other than statement from CMO Neil Graham, so we know he's firmly embedded now.
As a result I assume we'll drift SP wise until substantial update - Crohns, MS P2, detail behind P2 Covid...if it's late Q2, painful couple of months...Early Q2 and up we go again...
As someone mentioned yesterday I see a multi-billion opp assuming the P2s go well, but it's not an easy ride (but the lth's are fully aware of that!)...

Not sure Sangi...can't find anything to say Q2 trial is primary...just states Progressive MS (as far as I can tell). Given Stage 1 can be 10-20 years, not sure how easy it is to show statistical improvement with bio markers in a 6 month trial period, hoping GC will expand on it later...

Timings would have been nice, but hopefully get that this afternoon.
The P1 was announced mid-Sept, started early Nov, completed end of Dec, so would be good if similar timescales here...(ph2 not that much larger)...start mid-May, top line results late July?
Should have MS/Crohns in flight then aswell so a lot going on...

I would expect Accustem is a definite given its the penultimate day of the quarter...it's also not impacted by timing as its not yet listed so 1.50ET not an issue.
We also know MS Ph2 and Crohns Ph2 are due to start in Q2 so timing of Bloomberg session pertinent to that, would be nice if we know they are starting...
Would also be nice if we had next steps re Covid trial...but now I'm being greedy...
US market today not exactly getting excited mind...so thinking might just be Accustem...??

Just for info (apologies Moniman)...I word....
Quick update...
1) Invesco drop from 5.96% to 4.97%. 6th Jan - 8th Feb. Came from volume of 56mn shares.
2) Drop from 4.97% to 3.97%. 8th Feb - 25th Feb.
Came from volume of 47mn
3) 25th Feb - today - 48mn shares traded, so would expect drop below 3% next couple of days if same trend.
(As before, up 40% since mid Jan so not a massive drag, just FYI)

Given its GC and not KS (Chairman rather than Chief Exec), during trading hours in US (and outside UK), and news overdue on Accustem, my punt is it is Accustem rather than TILS related...

Good spot Cloudy...

Tiziana Statement on top line data (Feb ’21)

The positive effects of the treatment are also supported by the data indicating a trend toward greater reduction in systemic biomarkers of inflammation, such as the levels of Interleukins-6 (“IL-6”) and c-reactive protein (“CRP”) in blood samples of Foralumab treated patients as compared to those in the control cohort.

BBC News article

The PHOSP-Covid study also found that most people with severe, ongoing symptoms five months after leaving hospital had higher than normal levels of a chemical called CRP in their bodies, which is linked to inflammation.

Just adding my thoughts...mood music definitely not in a good place at the moment!

Like others, I find the comms dreadful, but have come to accept it - my simple view being, they haven't shown an appetite to improve it, so either I sell up and find another opportunity or I put up with it...I've chosen the latter.
That's based purely on my belief the science is compelling, I've not found a peer that has the same pipeline strength (not in terms of drugs in given phases, but the fundamental step change in the science).

The problem, for me, then lies in timings... With the peak and trough of noise (granted more trough than peak), you see the gradual erosion in share price, through a combination of lack of patience, resentment (understandable) and what I still think is a concerted effort to drive the price down in those troughs in the US).

I can't envisage for one minute that Tiziana will take drugs to market themselves...the last time I looked there were 14 employees, and no vacancies... so any attempt to build a team to market a product is, I think, improbable. (I can't see them doing that with Accustem either). That leaves the likelihood of various partnerships to drive their drugs forward. If we continue to hear nothing in the next month, you could see the price drift further...could see 80p personally, however all it takes is an RNS stating they've licenced patent technology to Regeneron (or a number of other initiatives they could announce) and I've missed the boat (despite being sat on the quayside for the last 12 months)...hence, sit on my hands...

We know the science is strong, personnel seriously heavyweight...but the management approach poor... I suspect they have a set of milestones they are aiming for and pi's are just background noise, which in a way is fair enough given the pioneering work they are doing, it's just somewhat bizarre they make life harder for themselves with dual listings, offshoots etc...tying themselves in knots...

...or tlsainfo.com

There are plenty of other listed companies if this one doesn't do it for you...you can sell and buy somewhere else which you find more exciting...

Thought I'd try and apply a little bit of science to this...
1) RNS stating Invesco dropped from 5.96% to 4.97%. Took one month, 6th Jan - 8th Feb.
Taking LSE data, came from volume of 56mn shares.
2) RNS stating Invesco dropped from 4.97% to 3.97%. Took two weeks (give or take), 8th Feb - 25th Feb.
Taking LSE data, came from volume of 47mn, so assume c. 50mn shares to achieve 1% reduction.
3) 25th Feb - 15th March - 25mn shares traded, so assuming they've shifted 0.5%, another 0.5% to go, so assume another 2 weeks.
However, volume higher since the proactive session last week, and if that stays, another c. 7 working days, less if we think a Challenge study at 10mn+ RNS's this week.
Then for them to be out, would think another c. 6 weeks if a couple of additional RNSs land in the next month.

(Would just caveat the above...done the analysis for the sake of it - not bothered when they disappear and don't see it as of any importance, SP moving in positive direction and bonkers news flow in coming weeks. Would be nice if 1-2 II's picked up 3% over a similar timescale mind).