RE: Investor Sentiment23 Jan 2021 12:36
Weekend musings...
On the sample size question, we know it's small, 23 patients outside of the control group and half of these had Foralumab with Dex. A little frustrating that they didn't go higher, but that's speaking as an investor and thinking of market reaction...less relevant to TILS, they're looking at bigger picture...timescale of trial more critical and just a stepping stone to bigger things...feels like they wanted to get through this stage quickly and also use the clinical data to aid the imminent ph2 on MS/Crohns.
All sounds positive given sound bites and activity this month. While I'm comfortable the data looks anecdotally good, and to be talking the way they are now, credibility would be shot if the numbers from biomarkers didn't back it up so see that issue diminishing as a consideration. Question around wording in the RNS important - they've not shown they are blessed with delivering clarity in RNSs, so wording really critical!
In terms of market reaction, you would expect it to be positive given US attention and small free float, and a growing realisation we aren't done with Covid by Spring...
There's also the more fundamental piece the data gives a platform for the MS/Crohns trials to be a success, so lot of upside to investors beyond the Covid element from here.
Funding doesn't sound like an issue, even if they sought investment in 12 months time, don't see that as a negative given drug progression by that time, (would see it as a positive as shows intent and they don't seem frivolous with expenditure). I was surprised by cash burn, thought it would be higher...so all looks positive there.
Its six years since the agreement on Foralumab with NovImmune so a long development path to get to this point, and not something pharma would be able to replicate any time soon so see acquisition as inevitable...progression this year just makes that figure higher and all the investor activity helps push that up and create interest...just hoping its later rather than sooner, but given level of shares in secure hands, capital, CMO appointment and pipeline assume / hope that won't be a short term event.
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