Member Info for Greend100

Hi Rockz, HL. Thanks.

Hi Lurking, what was the reason for that (I recall it being discussed but not the reason)? Given we can buy TLSA, why not Accustem? Any thoughts appreciated...

Nothing's really changed...revenues were going to be low given IFRS15, you can't recognise what you haven't delivered. Costs going up to support what's coming through...

Hope you have more patience with the rescue dog ;-)

It's nothing like those sort of figures...

CF has 6.7%. Let's assume pre-clinical value of HVO-001 plus add ons is £10mn, (can't see it being higher), and they need to raise £10mn through Primarybid to get to Phase1, he's now diluted to 3.3%. To take it through phase 3, costs a lot of money...let's take Synairgen needing £90mn, think it was £87mn being accurate. If at that time of additional funding need, poolbeg is worth say, £45mn market cap, he's now diluted further to 1.1%. If they have taken an incentive early doors that means his 1.1% is actually 1.4%, it's not that material given what is required to get to that point.

I think the key story tonight will be how Open Orphan are central to the Govt (and wider) Vaccine dev strategy. It's not straightforward, and hopefully Cathal gives a lot of detail, but various threads coming together...
1) Characterisation due to complete tomorrow, on track to start Challenge studies?
2) Global Pandemic Preparedness Partnership and 100 day Vaccine dev initiative.
3) MHRA Access Consortium and need for regulated approach, and use of regulated challenge studies as part of that process (not sure how it links into 2 above) but assume they are linked.
4) The 3mn RNS last month re developing challenge virus for Imperial/Wellcome trust, which then has global implications through Wellcome/HIC-VAC, which assume can be repeated for other virus strains and countries.

Not sure how all this comes together and how you balance need to do right by society with commercial gain, but sure CF will be up to it...

Everything else (and there are many threads) seem straightforward-ish, the web being weaved above seems to have huge potential, just not sure how it all hangs together yet...

Originally it was set up for the Telegram group, but due to numbers involved, pushed to InvestorMeet to allow sufficient dial-ins (and the opened up to others) and as such, was Orph initiated...so not wholly convinced by your rationale Vascular...but hoping you're right!!

Kind of get where you are coming from but in a two month hiatus from Cathal, there must be a lot going on - he doesn't do slowly. Timescales are granted, over-optimistic at times but there are a few news items due imminently:
1) Characterisation studies due to complete this week, and no issues on timing raised by Dr Chiu 3-4 weeks back. If they've gone alright, challenge studies imminent. Value of those a question mark, nice to get something validated > £10m.
2) Loads of snippets around HIC-VAC, PPP (Pandemic Preparedness Planning) and then have G7 here next week where 100 day vaccine dev at the forefront. To date, Hvivo been heavily involved and expect that to continue - what it means commercially something of a question mark.
3) Growing discussions around mAbs, anti-virals etc..., would be good to get an update there.
4) Spin offs 1 and 2 - if no RNS tomorrow, assume this will be limited in terms of what can be said other than on indicative timescales. Hoping funding not proving difficult.
Can't see any news on things like China, increased bed capacity, Imutex/ConservBio, DiM, but happy to be blindsided!

Not wanting to put a dampener on things but thise phase 1 results relate to Foralumab study November 18 - September 2019, with a bolt on comment around the Brazil trial. Feels like trying to keep a news flow.

Not sure it's worth worrying about... he was above 40% last year prior to fundraise, they work closely with JPMorgan in US so doubt it's an issue.
Key things I took away...
1) Accustem is US only - I know we thought it was but wording was vague, so good to have it verified.
2) Based on seeking senior appointments prior to IPO, doubt it will happen in early Q3 (personal opinion), but having waited this long would rather they did it right and took some confidence from that. Also liked the view that they would seek to expand the prognostic tool piece over time.
3) Woukd have liked a clearer view on Accustem progress in terms of work in Milan, CE Mark etc... so still unsure on progression of the business side.
4) A nod to the fact they have an Investor Relations gap, and something they are looking to rectify.
5) Realisation bonus - silly amount, but seems to be legacy contracts that weren't adequately written years back so become telephone numbers after a period...Persimmon CEO bonus springs to mind. At least he didn't duck the topic.
6) Referenced personnel...does seem to have the ability to bring heavyweights to the table.
7) FDA and Foralumab is likely to be slow moving over the next quarter given need for murine studies, but mentioned after first progressive MS patient treated, additional one can be done and so on (assuming no side effects).
8) Crohns and Covid trials to kick off in next couple of months...

My take away... all looks okay, quiet period, would like to see them show a little more urgency, doesn't feel pacey. Still think huge potential, not sure if we are at the bottom, but if not, can't be far off it...

He's just increased from 34.070% to 34.075%, hardly seismic. Aim all along has been to be on Nasdaq only, he's not going to take it into private ownership...
His stake was in the 40's% prior to last fundraise, they'll raise again next year to progress pipeline and he'll be diluted further into the 20's% (but with a more advanced pipeline and funding to progress further)

ADR change in the interim, went from 5:1 to 2:1 hence valuation change...

Agree completely Aidan...not done himself any favours there, have complete confidence in the scientific board, but GC's not inspiring trust or confidence at the moment.

We've known for a long while that the science is extremely compelling (the only reason we are still here) but the way the business is run is poor at best. We know they trip over themselves with spin offs, poor PR, inaccurate RNSs etc.. and as discussed previously, < £1mn per annum would give you a weighty business minded CEO (no offence KS), IR team/Corporate relations function...but it's not going to happen unfortunately ...so you either step away or grin and bear it...
My main concern isn't around SP (quite relaxed about that bizarrely but not underwater to the extent of a lot of others), likelihood of success etc... but more around keeping the science community aligned over the coming 12 months+. There's an awful lot of power in one mans hands, and the bonus announcement doesn't sit comfortably. Given the disparity of holding/return at Board/Scientific Board, that can breed resentment (it's human nature) and the most important thing for me is keeping Drs Weiner/Ferrara etc... on side. (Having said that, scientists don't tend to be materialistic... money not their God usually, but I'd prefer it if the disparity between GC and others wasn't as great). Linked to this is the increasing contempt investors have and sentiment is huge - bonus not vaguely proportionate - into Mino Raiola football agent territory here, so anticipate this sliding further over the coming days).

This share does peak and trough a lot over the years, they have liquidity to run their pipeline programme and come H2 various news flow will see this climb again and give him the platform to do another raise on positive news flow to see them through H2 FY22 and FY23 (assume cash burn increases over next 12 months) imho.

Re share price, I can see it dropping to 60p as can't see any obvious news in the next month to counter the slide. I did notice Jadam post earlier in the week so suspect current price level hasn't gone unnoticed with traders and value is seen at these levels / just below. As we've seen before, when news lands it moves quickly, aided by US demand, and a small free float.

News isn't that far away but Tiziana timescales can only be taken as a vague indication at best, however second half of year looks like it should be busy.

If I could only keep one share for the next three months, definitely wouldn't be TILS, however if I could only keep one share in my portfolio for the next two years, it would be TILS...by a distance...will top up again, just giving it a week or two to see if it falls a little further (drop generally being bought into at the mo).

Anyway, just my ramblings...

£300k figure was in my head DDB.

I think the laughable Finncap broker note had us at -£6/7mn for FY20, but they shouldn't be too far out. CF has intimated it will be a loss, but profitable Q4, but the longer the time gap to publishing results the less material it becomes, all about the outlook.
If we can start Challenge studies in June, and show them to be £10mn+ (CFs words), that changes the game massively. With characterisation work due to be done by 3rd June, getting into the timing where we can contract these (again taking CFs view that a number are lined up). Won't see all the revenue in FY20, but yield / bed improvement is significant.
(Also think he'll sell within this FY, once other assets spin out...but that's another discussion)

I'm thinking this reduces the likelihood of a forward deadline date, which is a good thing. Assume at some point in the next week or so, the RNS will state "...those on the share register at 4.30 the previous evening..." ??

Not sure it's that relevant Sangi...they aren't going to do ph3 in isolation, it would be in partnership, so a lot of potential tie-ups on the way potentially. Also delivering P3 not a sole driver of value - as an example, Imutex, part owned by Open Orphan, will go to market in US through ConservBio at c.$600mn...ph2 complete, not started ph3. Have some pre-clinical stuff but mainly one drug, Imutex.
TILS has a lot more going for it. Quiet time now but moving in right direction, plenty of other shares if you don't see the value here... (not sure why I'm posting tbh, more for benefit of others I guess...)

http://prepbiopharm.com/prep-biopharm-board.php

Same guy...

donotpanic...
I wouldn't necessarily assume that, it might still dip a little again.
May be something going on in the background, but if not, the last couple of hours just serves as a reminder as to how quickly this can move...

On another note, yesterday was like the old days...Aidan, Sporty, SK, BMO3, BB, OA, ...

I really can't see that Broker note happened this week by chance. Middle of spin offs, results due etc... Has to be intentional, just don't know the motivation for it...not fazed as fundamentals haven't changed but definitely intrigued as to why...any suggestions?
- Allow II's in, if positive outlook due? Tends to get churned out as a reason, not sure how credible?
- Rein in the SP to remove volatility after spin offs?
- Align valuations for spin offs? If splits agreed at set values, anything where a climbing SP would be unpalatable?
Anyone closer to the ways of the city got any ideas?