Member Info for Greend100

Hi Cloudy, in terms of value I don't think it will offer the value of the other parts of the portfolio, which was the original driver for investing in TILS pre knowing StemprintER existed. However, an extremely welcome addition.
The initial proof point will be in justifying the improved effectiveness. Would love it to be 45% more effective but bigger brains than mine will do the due diligence in proving that.
Ideal scenario for me is that they have a buyer who wants leverage into the prognostics space or Exact want to bolster their capability...will soon find out...

Afternoon all, thought it might be worth putting some info down on Exact and OncotypeDX...not seeing how we get to an approx valuation given lack of competitive strength and cash impact) but might be of interest??
- Genomic Health when purchased had 800 emps and turnover was $223mn in H1 of that year...this wasn't all Breast cancer related, $162mn was so had other diagnostics being developed at the time.
- OncotypeDX covers Colon and Prostate Prognostics aswell (under Oncotype umbrella)
- At that time, revenues had grown c. 20% y-o-y $330mn to $400mn.
- They did 39k tests in that last quarter so run rate of c 160k tests per annum.
- It looks like each test sells for $3.5-4K, but looking at their sales, get a unit price of $2k coming to Exact so assume remainder is in the field pricing.
- Exact paid $2.8bn which is well documented, and turnover was c 400mn USD at the time.
- Exact selling into 90 countries and looking at their recent figures sales seem flat at 160k per annum.
- For info, c 2nn women a year are diagnosed with breast cancer which in my view is pretty high reach at 160mn tests.
- I assume growth in sales is dependent on proving a TCO that it is of more value to use the OncotypeDX tool as it would lead to a better result for the patient but also (and unfortunately the case) is more cost effective for the healthcare trust.
- Of exact sales, 72% in US, 28% elsewhere.
- Now trying to expand into Europe where previously weak, and where TILS should have strength, particularly UK and IT.
- Of interest, 160k breast cancer tests, but doing 1.7mn colon tests.
- Exact would have been buying the skill set to expand Prognostics not just in breast cancer but wider oncology. I would assume similar process to identify markers of other cancers so once you have the proprietory technology should be a wider market to aim for, and suspect that is where the Exact Sciences business saw the scope from the acquisition.
- I can't ascertain profit relating to Oncotype as it is bundled but will have a dig around to see if I can find anything.
- Interestingly Exact presented at ASCO 2020 aswell and as you would expect are looking to improve the efficacy of their models/tools.

Just sharing for info....no idea on valuations, will depend on a raft of factors, but think those expecting it to be worth $2.8bn are probably wide of the mark, with Roker on the 5-15%. (and for the lth's side show rather than main event)

Hi, I don't see a fund raise as necessary as would be a public share issue as part of the IPO e.g. 190mn shares for TILS, plus additional in public offering...level of appetite/need will gauge how many are available. Once floated, should have sufficient cash for next stage of dev.

With you on that one Whimax...those trades have given me greater confidence...
As the poker saying goes...if you can't spot the sucker at the table...
We just need to hold our nerve......inclined to top up off the back of that...they're certainly putting the effort in...algorithms just ticking over trying to drag it south

That was my point earlier...you can't swim against the might of that tide, so you just have to go with it. However they will be increasingly taking positions and as the news builds that spring gets increasingly tightened. At some point it will be released and we'll see the sort of week we saw in July...which should be a fun ride! In the meantime go where the current takes us...and try not to worry about it...

Might be being naive, but does it matter? if it stays cheap now, chance to top up. As soon as an IPO prospectus comes out they'll have to close their position so should only be two weeks away max...
As I say, I might be missing something.
Did assume the shorters were driving it down to then flip and pick up shares for the long run through Q4....

Ran out of space...

Given this, I don’t see that it would be late-October before people jump in…it would need to be earlier. Given the limited free float as the share price rises, jumping in would become less compelling later in October as the Accustem value is being increasingly factored into the TILS share price each day.



Now heading to the IPO itself….for arguments sake, assuming 200mn current shares in issue, if we assume an additional 25% is free float, that would give a total number of shares issued as 250mn (assuming they can get it away at their target price). On that basis, each Accustem share would be c. £1.20, (250mnx£1.20=£300mn) and TILS would reduce from its possible c. £2.50 price point at the record date back down to c. £1.30 (Tiziana might try and limit the reduction but not sure it really matters given the strength of their portfolio and news flow towards back end of Q4, it will soon climb, would happily see it fall back as would see that as a buying opportunity)

This would leave Accustem with c. £50mn minus fees etc… after the public offering so should have enough cash to trade in the mid-term while they can generate a revenue stream, be that through licencing or selling direct. I can’t see the need for cash post-floatation given this and if the product is near ready to commercialise should be cash generative given the value is in the capability rather than having heady Cost of Sales / Opex.



It then gets interesting as to what happens post-launch. While there might be some quick churn it shouldn’t be that significant. We know there is only a free float of 10% of existing shareholders, so c. 20mn shares, a lot of these will believe in the mid-term with a smaller proportion in for the free ride. Think we can assume anyone who takes up the public issue will hold on to them as they’ve paid for them rather than received them for free, and if the business valuation of Accustem comes in north of the £300mn figure would be compelling to hold.

Just my ramblings, could be wide of the mark but would value feedback – trying to piece together the jigsaw and at the moment the dogs’ eaten a piece and ones stuck down the back of the sofa…



Not sure what’s happened to daveycaferacer…might be able to add/counter my thinking…spent a lot of time looking at biotech.

Just trying to get my head around the next 6 weeks leading up to the Record Date…just my ramblings again, could be way off the mark.

I think it is fair to assume there is some degree of value associated with StemprintER in the current share price, given the level of noise about it and the share price climb in the last 3-4 months. A lot of the rise will be linked into patents, Covid etc..., but for arguments sake, let’s assume £1 for TILS and £0.50 for Stem (currently). At 200mn shares in issue (using rounding), the current share price holds £100mn value for Accustem already, might be overstated but let’s air on the side of caution.

Taking from Proactive Investor…”H.C. Wainwright’s Selvaraju flagged up the potential hidden value of the StemPrintER business, pointing out that Genomic Health, whose sole technology was the aforementioned Oncotype DX, was sold in a US$2.8bn cash-plus-stock transaction. Selvaraju has conservatively ascribed a value of US$280mln to StemPrintER, or 10% of the headline cost of Exact’s purchase of Genomic Health”. Keywords…”sole technology” and “conservatively”.

Raghuram Selvaraju clearly knows his onions. He received his Ph.D. in molecular neuroscience and cellular immunology, an M.S. degree in molecular biology from the University of Geneva in Switzerland, and an MBA from Cornell University. We know he had a meeting with Tiziana on Monday which might just be to update an Analyst view, or could be prep for the IPO. My view is that Wainwrights will be doing the IPO, and this was most probably an Analyst diligence meeting to help Wainwright build the story in taking Accustem to market.

While they will want to heavily sell the value of Accustem, I’m with JH in that I could see them going with a more conservative view in order to get it away, and enable it to maintain momentum when floated. If you can promote the business as worth £500mn+ but will launch at c. £300mn, makes it more compelling and reduces the risk of quick turnover of shares.

Here I question the criticality of the Record date. If they are then marketing the IPO, and that takes c. 4 weeks before the record date, I would expect that would start immediately after the split has been approved. On that basis, valuations of the standalone Accustem business should be made public around that date (arguably beforehand as in my mind it would be fundamental to approving the split at the GM), so we are talking c. 14 days away…not long. After that, if the Accustem business has an Investment Bank published valuation of £300-£400mn, I would expect shareholders to wade in given the obvious upside. If this climb starts from that point, by the time you get towards the record date, you aren’t seeing significant upside my hopping on the bus at that point…you’re only going one stop up the road.

Given this, I don’t see that it would be late-October before people jump in…it would need to be earlier. Given the limited free float as the share price rises, jumping i

I think the key piece here will be the valuation from HC Wainwright. The RNS implies notional value being assigned to Accustem, so value stays in TILS. However, in June Wainwrights "conservatively valued Accustem at 280mn USD, the valuation being 10% of what Exact paid for Genomic Health". As a poster pointed out a couple of days ago, Tiziana had an Investor Relations meeting with Wainwright on Monday this week...would expect a new analyst report on Accustem valuation anytiime...

Didn't regenerate shut down their phase III Kevzara trial around the time TILS looked at oral/nasal administration? Might be adding 1+1 and making 3...

Just thought I'd put forward some Monday morning musings...
On the lack of an RNS, you can't RNS to say stuff is still WIP...it would take you till 8am to scroll through all the RNSs each day...:-)
Likewise NDAs, you can't comment until something is likely to be contracted or contracted...again I wouldn't expect NDAs to be RNSd..., I've signed 10+ this FY and as a company we must have signed 100s...you aren't going to RNS until there is something of significance to say...
Equally best will in the world they aren't geared up to reply to pi's (could do better in this regard but it's a double edged sword, you'd end up getting pinged every week for updates and they wouldn't be able to share anything of note anyway)
On a broader note...Empery increased their stake, from 3% to 5%...they weren't stung at £2...they've been on the ride since 25p, they know what the company intentions are and they've seen the share price climb...they are buying into the long term potential (and recognising you need to pay a premium to lay your hands on 10mn shares). You don't shaft your largest investors ...are they worried...highly doubt it, are TILS worried...nope...just PIs...nature of investing...it's a waiting game and things invariably take longer than forecast.
Options...
1. Sell stem...tick
2. IPO...tick
3. Licence the prognostic IP...tick
4. It's not as good a prognostic tool as they thought...not a tick... Doubt this though given the personnel on board, and key for me it was socialised at ASCO in May and four months later they are spinning it out (given company logged with Companies House on the 3rd Sept...) so reckon 1 of the first three...which one, who knows...

Lastly, mindful above is Stem focused, intentional given majority of board comments...still think Milciclib holds the most near term value...and Foralumab the mid term...

Quiet Friday so thought I'd offer some thoughts to try and offer a counter to some of the anxieties that seem to be creeping in...

First one re the two new investors...
Seen all sorts of comments about them being spiked etc...
We know one of them is Empery....taking their stake from 3.07% to 5.33%. They aren't new...they've seen merit in increasing their stake at £2 a share...they know the business, they've not been hoodwinked.
I don't think I've seen the RNS on the other but they've taken a 5.4% stake.
The new/incremental investors would have known exactly what they were signing up to - investment to expedite a big goodie bag of innovative drugs / drug delivery to reap significant mid-term returns. To think they've been stung is somewhat fanciful.
The £2 price negotiated in return for a significant stake. I see that as a positive, and also unlinked to the share price spike and drop. That climb was concurrent to the intentional PR push and assume that was linked to the ATM coming to a close and that pushed the volume through, which in turn puts more cash into the company coffers...
A good thing in time.

On lack of news, the error I see is the timing info released...it just wasn't realistic. Could be lack of foresight or the cynic could say it linked to the ATM at the time to drive short term volume. Not ideal but a small free float, lots of potential and news over the coming month should see this recover quickly.

In terms of timings, what they are doing is huge...change listing, create prospectus for valuing a spin off, but more importantly the effort to split a business - funding, heads, asset registers etc... it will take time...whether spun out or sold. I don't see this as a risk just need to be patient.

Wider risks are the fundamental ones associated with the industry...
Stem doesn't get the endorsement of its effectiveness from DD, phase II/III trials don't get the desired results etc..., but when you look at their NDA's, previous experience of the board and the scientific weight they have they've got a hell of a good chance of making some fly...

Sure this might drop to £1.20 given potential change in sentiment on the Nasdaq but it will bounce strongly as the news lands...but gives Barnet the chance to say I told you so...

On a general note and as a friendly LSE board...welcome to the party Roker...good measured comments..., Shiraz hope your brother(s) are still talking to you ;-) , when will an RNS land to say MAT has gone above 3%, BMO3 for keeping us grounded and showing other things more important than money...and where has LoveSingh gone...

Or to look at it another way Whimax...
If StemprintER with the conservative broker report of $280mn (10% of Exact)= £210mn and it is factored into the share price...the rest of the business has no value attributed to it :-) ... no brainer imho

Give it time folks it'll come good...great one for investors may be less so for traders....
I don't think for one minute the big ii's were spiked...they aren't stupid. The price shot up massively over a couple of weeks so they would be more than aware of its trajectory in recent months, they haven't been caught at the top. They specialise in healthcare, have scientists in house, would have seen detailed investor presentations on roadmap, NPD, accounts, ASCO feedback etc... this is massively de risked from my perspective...just sitting on my hands for now...but at least it's keeping them warm...

A different partner in each region where they have the distribution model...they sell at 4K a time, we get a cut 1-1.5k each time they run the service just for licencing our IPR...again just looking at options...

Hi Dreamchase, nice to see someone lead the way on a sunny bank holiday...
Agree in the main but only doubt I have is why would you do the offering if you knew a lump of cash was about to land - they were already okay till mid-2021 from memory so why dilute your shares?
Still have mixed views on Stem. Feels like a giveaway if sold for 250-300mn, but will take time to industrialise it and get the big money ... and not geared up to do that. Could see some sort of licencing model where one of the big pharma guys with the distribution network run with it in the short term and then buy it in time? Would still be lucrative for SHolders...
Just speculating...

Before, he held 64mn shares, of 169mn = 37.8%
Added $57mn / 1.3 fx / 2 = 22mn new shares
GC now diluted...same 64mn / 191 = 33.5%

Let them have their fun...it'll bounce back
(I use that term loosely as it was 80p 3 months back...)
If you take a recent one...ODX. Share price went from 60 to 32p (placing at 40p), four weeks later back up to 60ish, loads sold out on the panic...shares hoovered up by others...
Two weeks ago two ii's felt it worthwhile to buy $57mn at £2 a share...these guys would have been party to far more info, have scientists doing DD on it...they know far more than me and gave confidence that the major mid term potential is there!
Only thing I can criticise the BoD for is they fly a bit loose on dates which irritates but think that will improve, must be due their next investor briefing in the US shortly, if one a month...

Something just feels weird about the placing...
C. 1 month earlier the CEO is saying they are fully funded into mid-2021, but then another 57mn lands...
At a time when there was a PR push and volatility around the ATM ending, ADR ratios changing...why wouldn't it have been a fortnight earlier...
Can't think of placings that haven't benefitted the investor, so why would they have placed on the spike price? GDR £3, placing at 80p (granted, bad example), ORPH 11p, share price 15p at the time...
TILS £1.20 ish a week earlier, placed at £2...
Anyone with more experience got any thoughts... ?spent years in FTSE100 Commercial Finance, none in Corporate...so must be missing something / being naive...
Just feels like something bigger going on...

It's a great quid pro quo... two week hiccup on share price for two ii's and 50 mn in the bank to expedite the speed of getting your portfolio of devs progressed...would take that trade off every time...