Member Info for Graviton

Somebody bought £50k

Https://at.linkedin.com/company/garven-llc

Our core customers include Walmart, Target, Amazon and several other major retail partners.

Increasing sales & controlling/reducing costs = increasing margins. Reduced debt and therefore presumably reduced debt cost over the year ahead. Pension holiday. Interest rate risk hedged.

What is not to like, even with the Starmer Tax this looks good for next year. Hard to understand such a low low price.

Interesting that they can sell an office asset at 23% above its book value. Seems to suggest a potential NAV premium rather than the NAV discount it currently trades at.

All looks solid and a very healthy yield with a tick up in NAV.

pokerchips, aren't those 2 things related though. i tend to think high interest rates = high housing costs = people needing more income and putting up service prices. i don't understand why the boe doesn't think high interest rates are driving service costs higher and that if it lowered rates service inflation could be more likely to stabilise back towards 2% inflation along with housing costs. but who am i to question my betters running the **** show.

“If a share price is based on discounted future earnings, investors don’t seem to be overly impressed with the proposed deal.”

I think it is just the need to see the deal go through and then the refinancing of the remaining debt. People/Markets don’t like uncertainty.

Yes it is becoming obscene how the public sector can gorge on huge guranteed inflation proof pensions whilst people struggling to generate a private pension pot are penalised. Oddly you cannot spend capital required for a DC pension because you need it to generate income and you have no idea whether you will die at 70 or 105. But public sector are laughing as their pensions are guaranteed by the taxpayer even if they die at 105.

Well it presumably takes quite some time to turn things into a formal signed agreement with due diligence and lawyers and accountants and stuff to go through on both sides. How long has it taken in other examples ? Four weeks doesn’t seem that long to me.

It seems a good match for both parties IMO.

'What was this government thinking ?'

They can't think, their stupidity is only exceeded by their arrogance. Dunning-Kruger.

I am not sure either of those things has had any material effect on the share price tbh. We know the Moody’s statement had no effect on the price of Saga debt. The unfortunate safety incident was a year ago, and whilst there might be some fine or compensation or reprimand this is most unlikely to have a material impact on business performance. A newspaper story is tomorrow’s fish and chip paper.

Likely just some nerves about the insurance deal until it is all signed up. There are a lot of traders around trying to take profits and focussed on short term movements.

Will the Anglo Ashanti share price rise today on news of the vote outcome ?

Finding it hard to understand why the share prices have fallen when the price of gold has not.

Yes, I have also seen a ship cost inflation tracker showing over 50% inflation since the SAGA ships were built i.e 2020/2021. The SAGA ships cost around £350M a pop back then and carry about 1000 passengers and 500 crew with extra single cabins. So I think would certainly cost over £500M to order now. A 4/5 year old cruise ship is I guess ‘nearly new’ and given shortages and lead times SAGA ship value likely say £1000M or more. Encouraging that orders for new cruise ships are booming too - a world full of aging people like me to serve.

Then there are several new 180 passenger river cruise boats too.

Solving the insurance problem will be a big step forward, and with a refinancing...

According to Reinsurance News and Moody's... ''In total the group has £770 million of debt. As well as the outstanding bond of £250 million and drawn loan of £75 million from its chairman, the group has access to an undrawn £50 million revolving credit facility, due March 2026, and a further £10 million on the facility with its chairman. Ship debt amounts to £376 million, due in 2031 and 2032.''

What this doesn't seem to recognise is that the ships are assets with a large value of their own. Indeed I think the cost/value of ships has gone up considerably with inflation. Surely the Ship debt is therefore irrelevant as it just represents a 'mortgage' type loan easily renewed/extended against the security of the ships. It also still has 6/7 years to run. Why even mention it ?

One simple answer would seem for the Chairman to extend the term of his loan (he is hardly going to let the company go bust ?) and to refinance the ships to pay off the bond - something already work in progress I think. Down the line once sorted still has the potential to multibag from here. Does anyone happen to know what the ships are worth ?

Odd looking timing from Moody's I think, just as a deal is being done ?

6% drop on account of absolutely nothing ?

I really don’t think it is time for dividends yet. Cash is best used to reduce debt which then boosts future profits. The business is currently a combination of trading performance (which seems healthy enough) and large debt costs. The progress on debt reduction should already mean perhaps £20M lower debt costs in 2025. Refinancing to reduce debt costs could lower debt costs in ‘25 by who know another £10M again. Use 2025 profit/cash to cut debt further and we have a virtuous circle which will drive profit growth almost regardless of trading. Share price could even be double in 2026 - better than any immediate pointless dividend. There seems a lot of potential here if well managed. Must remain a possible bid target I’d have thought.

I see SAGA had 1.5m policies back in Jan ‘24. So may be worth £750M in total less relevant debt. I guess selling a 30% stake into a partnership might raise £250M to pay down debt ?

He guesses wildly.

The PE owner of ESURE has done very badly then, as now looking to sell at a loss after 6 years, whilst proclaiming ESURE is now set for growth after moving to the cloud. I am not sure AGEAS are going to fall for that one. No PE owner is going to sell a business that is about to go boom - therefore ESURE is NOT about to go boom. IMO.

But that valuation is around £500 per policy - how many policies do SAGA have ?

BuckJones set out the deal below. But the problem is the Gold price has risen 10% since then and for a gold miner this is normally all pure profit increase (but can someone clarify, does some of this go to the Egyptian government ?). Meanwhile the Anglogold Ashanti shares we are being offered have fallen 7%, so the offer value is now worth nothing like the 163p claimed at the time (to raise the offer to reflect the higher gold price presumably we ‘’should’’ be wanting 10% more anyway = 179p.

I find it frustrating and annoying to see the price at 148p now when I would be expecting 179p. But I only have a small holding.

Disappointed that the price here is now static despite the gold price merrily rising. Obviously the production costs are what they are so every increase in the gold price is pure profit for gold miners. We seem to be saddled with some kind of stitched up deal here that doesn’t feel like best price. Every time the gold price rises a bit more it looks less attractive and this week we are expecting rate cut announcements. It is odd timing for a deal.

Results tomorrow. This board and share trades are so busy it is difficult to keep up.