Member Info for Graviton

A positive story going forward which looks good.

I would have liked to see some actual numbers declared for forward forecasts though. We are now over a third of the way through this financial year but have no forecast figure from the company.

A statement that no further goodwill writedowns are anticipated would also help.

The charts look good but why are we forced to resort to trying to measure the bars ourselves.

Why would investors want out when they can have good value and good income.

I agree that the deal should be expressed using PHP NAV as this represents the real value. The PHP and Assura boards should serve investors not traders.

Given they compete in the same market there are clear synergies and other benefits including scale from the combination.

In a recession wages go down, they don’t go up.

Recession is characterised by job loses as companies lay off labour to mitigate losses or falling profits.

If recession is coming then rates will fall and Marstons will benefit. Energy prices will also fall benefitting costs. So there are offsets there and people like to go out for grub and beer. Don't be such a doomsayer.

Besides Trump may have changed his mind by Tuesday.

OK, I see someone bought 2 million shares around 3pm.

Barchid - that's nuts, the NIC & min wage, have been known about for over 5 months now.

Drop is bigger than that now, more like 30%.

This is insane. When I look at the free buy/sell stats on here it says 300k sells and 2400k buys - yet price has fallen to a new low for 6 months plus.

Some shenanigans to allow the shorter to exit before the results ?

This is surely just emotion at present. I don’t see that anything real has changed here.

The SAGA ships cost around £350M a pop. Since then the covid scam and consequent huge inflation means that ship building costs have inflated by 50%. I have no doubt the ships are undervalued on the balance sheet.

If there are balls in the air then they may be wanting some to land to be included with the results RNS. The timing of the balls may be uncertain and hence they may not want to publish a date prematurely. After all, publishing a date and then delaying it is normally seen as a bad sign by the market, better to wait and announce a date when ready.

There may be impact on contract provisions or divestments in progress. An investor is not going to feel to happy if results are announced 3 or 4 days before announcing a major transaction.

Any downturn can also prompt other groups to economise. Some of those buying cards at higher prices elsewhere may decide to go to CARD instead.

I quite like the idea of ordering customised cards and then collecting them from the local CF shop. They need to reduce the delivery time to store to less than 24hrs. The cost of postage is going to exceed the cost of a card soon. Bricks AND clicks has advantages to be exploited.

Is this declared in the company reports ? When does this expire ?

TBH it seems highly unlikely that 50% of pubs cannot pay their way and retaining a pub doesn’t mean retaining all the land that goes with it anyway.

So the asset value is far from cosmetic.

So it's cheaper to burn fuel cruising all day than pay a days port fee - wow.

Sounds like a problem looking for a solution e.g. anchor at sea and then ferry passengers to shore.

You would think ports could make more money from wealthy tourists spending in their town/city than port fees, accepting that some cities like Venice are completely overrun with hordes of tourists (and street trading immigrants selling fake goods).

If you take a SAGA river cruise then flights over and transfers to the river boat are provided.

Never taken a cruise, I kinda wonder why the ships don't stay in port longer e.g. for 2 or 3 days rather than offski after one day. You are not going to get much sightseeing and shopping done in a brief stop in larger ports.

Anyone know how much Saga spends on fuel each year ? I believe it is a substantial cost for cruising and no doubt is hedged for 2025, but with the oil price down 10%+ already should be another tailwind here for 2026.

Well I think they said high single digit profits for travel last year - maybe £8M ?

I would also suggest it complements cruise and gives them the chance to build customer loyalty for their over 50’s market.

Hi Batfasted, I assume sale of the insurance underwriting business will see the assets and liabilities associated with that business removed from the balance sheet. The sums payable by Aegis would then get added to the cash/balance sheet when received. However the new insurance partnership could be considered to leave a remaining sum of insurance broking related goodwill with SAGA. So the actual amounts of goodwill write off over FY24 and FY25 will depend on the accounting treatment.

We also need to remember the health and travel insurance are not part of the Aegis deal.

Well OK, I see that to a degree.

Nobody is thinking back to pre-covid here. The business is changing shape.

I too expect a further insurance write-down for last year, but for that to finish with any final write occurring down this year. All the numbers are out there in the accounts and the company presentations. Ships value appears understated on the balance sheet anyway. The big issue has been debt. Whilst the new financing is expensive it should be paid down pretty rapidly. Cruise and travel trading really well with a distinctive offer. Oil price likely to fall.

Looks like a £40M+ business in 2026/27 on a PE of 4.5 to me.

What exactly are the 'endless excuses' ?

The travel business is now motoring. Insurance is a problem the current CEO inherited and he has found 'a solution'. Yes waiting to recover and pull around insurance was an option but wasn't going to alleviate the debt position and carried its own risks. We are not going back to 2000p here, but to my mind we could be looking at a 2 to 3 bagger over the next couple of years.

No idea why the price isn't already starting to reflect that. All IMO only, so very happy to be convinced otherwise.

And when did they mention 'difficult trading conditions' ?

Do you watch the company presentations ?