Member Info for Graviton

Do we think these changes imply anything w.r.t. the possible NA sale ? More likely or less likely ?

Shouldn't this have an RNS ?

Not sure where any of that gets us.

The way I see it we just need to wait for the update in around 4 weeks. It is the business performance and hopefully continuing recovery that will determine the share price in the end. The Germany situation seems like it is probably tied into the political mess there but seems only a minor issue when the focus should be on recovery in the US & UK and possible US sale. I can only suspect there is perhaps some hesitation over whether to sell or keep the US and it feels like something clear cut needs to be said with the update. Whatever happens needs the update to provide justifying numbers anyway. And in the background interest rates have been up and down like a yoyo but might now be on a downward trajectory.

GLA

Whate ARE you talking about ? We have just had a trading update and refinancing. There is nothing to have ‘news’ about now surely.

I am guessing maybe a broker has number crunched the recent news and put out a non public buy note ?

''dirty log'' !?

Read the RNS Roadie.

Meanwhile we often appear to have twice as many shares bought as sold much of the time ?

Presumably that can't go on forever without impacting the price ?

Cards Direct have 78(?) stores opening a handful each year, Card Factory has 1000. Everything you said for Cards Direct is true for Card Factory.

I think 70% of the population have a birthday between March and November, not to mention anniversaries, weddings, births, funerals, job & house moves, get wells and thank you gifting.

Come back in 10 years when you have 150 stores and published accounts showing you make money rather than buying a possibly break even niche with Asian millions.

A new corner shop opened near me, I'm going to sell down MKS because the writings on the wall.

Funny how the narrative that Trump tariffs are inflationary and mean high interest rates must stay high for ages and ages, suddenly changes to Trump tariffs will bring recession and interest rates will tumble.

Lower rates, lower oil prices all good for MCG.

Nah. The whole market has been marked down almost regardless today because of the Trump tariffs that’s all. Must be a good buying opportunity.

Well the ship debt loan is the ship debt loan, it is like a mortgage, they pay interest and a capital repayment every year. Obviously it is fixed at the rate they took it out at.

So they have roughly half the debt at say 5% fixed and secured against the ships, and half unsecured at 11% floating, averaging 7.6%.

I doubt they have the freedom to suspend the ship debt loan payments in favour of paying off the other loan. You can't suspend your mortgage payment in favour of paying off your credit card.

I still think a ship revaluation could help the balance sheet as the ship value should be higher than the value they are carrying given the huge inflation in ship build costs.

We should get some forecasts from SAGA with the April results and updates on bookings. They also can’t keep the insurance commission a secret for ever. I’m guessing it will produce 10-20M profit pa.

If I were them I’d be trying to push the business to get the ships full to over 95%. I’d sack a few crew to trim cost a touch. Really push hard to maximise profit and pay down debt.

Well I guess a bid is a possibility. A US company like Viking could snap up SAGA. There is value in the brand and in the ships.

Some say Trump’s policy of drill baby drill, and ending the ukraine war could see big drops in the oil price. Another possible tailwind for reducing ship fuel costs.

Another thing about the debt is that it is eroded by inflation so the big covid inflation wave has increased interest rates but it has also eroded the real value of the debt by 12-15%.

The key is that debt will be paid down. £27M was paid down this year, add the £43M from the insurance deal in the coming year, can expect perhaps £70M minimum debt repaid in 25, then perhaps £90M repaid in 26. And £160M repaid at say 8% average = £12.8M lower interest and higher profit. At a PE of 8 that is a market cap increase of £102M, so we could easily be above 200p share price as that gets seen as the forward path. Just one way of looking at it that occurred to me.

Think you are confused jedclampit, google gave me...

''Alcohol duty rates on non-draught products including wine, spirits and bottled beer will increase by 2.7% from 1 February 2025. However, duty on draught alcohol served in pubs, bars and restaurants will decrease by 1.7%.''

PS I know nothing. DYOR etc yada yada. My comments are speculation. Interested to hear others thoughts.

Ageas didn't want to do a deal only to find SAGA then went bust making the deal worthless, therefore the condition that SAGA be a going concern without any caveats on their annual accounts. SAGA therefore had to refinance their bond and I guess get rid of the ''personal loan''. They have now done that.

SAGA bond was trading at 94.8 a couple of days ago, paying 5.5% coupon - so over 10%pa. Now trading at 98.4 as risk of default all but gone. In that context refinance not so bad perhaps. Makes little difference over next 18 months. Key is to pay down as a priority noting cash coming in from the Ageas deal and decent business profits. SONIA likely to fall again next week.

We can only presume they have done the maths on projected outcome as only they know the Ageas commission rate, and how much of the loan they can redeem early.

Would be nice of they can get 95% occupancy this year as filling say 25 of the last 50 cabins is basically nearly all profit.

We should get a clearer forward picture provided in April.

Future of the business now in the hands of the business, get every £ possible paid off with the userers at Blackrock and the future looks so bright we are going to need sunglasses.

Shorter may decide to close by April perhaps.

Excellent trading - profit upgrade for the year ending, and 10% revenue increase so far for the coming year.

Saga USP is that they serve the over 50’s market, lots of older people wanting a holiday without the great unwashed and their kids. Saga cruise staff ratio is 2 to 1 which provides for excellent service especially for people with health concerns or mobility constraints.

Can somebody explain to me why a slight profit upgrade that still leaves profiits below the prior year, combined with a warning about the high cost impact of Reeves budget for the coming year - which represents two thirds of profits - is a reason for a 20% SP rise ?