Member Info for Graviton

The bizarre world of UK share prices. Can this be true and fair ? What am I missing ?

Halfords RNS this morning and share price up 20% currently. Market cap now similar to card for an expected pbt almost half that for card, and a statement implying the next year’s pbt could be savaged by reeves budget.

Go figure. It makes no sense to me.

Why would halfords deserve PE10 but CARD PE 6 ?

Insurance deal done, core business profitability restored, debt being paid down, interest rates down. Once we get clarity over refinancing the bond we should be there.

The UK has 21M people over 50 and 10M over 65. That is an awful lot of potential customers. I’d have thought they should be marketing to yanks too given the exchange rate.

And what did Walmart have ?

Maybe somebody at the Treasury has explained at length in very very simple terms using piles of smarties that if the banks profits are hit then so will the corporate tax take and that means lower tax revenue’s and a bigger deficit.

Hopefully we will have someone new that can pass GCSE maths and will realise that taxing jobs and hiking minimum wage levels is a sure way to tank the economy and the governments own tax revenues as it will reduce employment and corporate tax take.

Yes good update.

They have good tailwinds this year as the debt reduction will save interest on £300M+ and there is a pension scheme holiday agreed. Also a clear strategy and NAV over £1.

‘’when they can buy the whole lot’’

The whole lot comes with the debt. That’s the whole point.

I don’t think most of us are here for 100p smokey.

Uncertainty is killing at present. People can get 5% in cash. They need to get the refinancing done. I hope we get something concrete on that reasonably soon this year.

Rupans, I think your numbers are conservative. Ship construction costs have increased 50% since SAGA received their ships. I would assess their ship replacement cost as at least £500M each. Probably more given the leadtime would be 18months or so. The ships are only say 4 years old. So cruise ship value likely close to £900M. I actually think SAGA ought to get them revalued on the balance sheet.

It makes sense to get this years results out (and a ship valuation IMO) to benefit the credit rating and then get that bond refinanced. I think we should be looking at say a £70M net profit pa business, at PE8 that is £560M or say 400p share price possible within say 18 months.

DYOR and investments can go down, just sketching a bull case that also has risks/uncertainties.

£160k buy appears, price inches DOWN a touch. Go figure.

How is market making supposed to work anyway ?

Lots of blue ‘O’s and red ‘A”s

I wonder why that would be ?

Unbelievable. SP was 140p before the mid year update which the market read as a big fail and profit warning for this year taking the price down to sub 100p. Now we know they will still hit target. So we should be at 140p again, or PE 9-10. We still have forecast growth next year of 5%-9%. How can we be PE 6 !

The UK market is just broken - too many have abandoned it and it has become a play thing for traders and shorters across all the smaller companies. No doubt the WEF globalists are absolutely delighted at their further destruction of the UK.

Exactly, all the other cruise lines seem to have had a bumper year and I am expecting the second half of Saga’s year to be as positive as the first half. Profitable cruise and holiday business here and another year paying off some of the cruise ship debt. The insurance business problems should now be resolved with the recent deal and although we don’t know the commission rate it should now be returned to something profitable for the future. The only thing outstanding is resolving the debt position on the SAGA corporate bonds due next year and possible partial lease back on the ships. Hopefully all wip and once resolved will transform the SP.

There is no reason for Theives budget to make any difference today, it isn’t news, it has been known fo 3 months.

What is news is the confirmation that full year profit will be achieved, so in theory the fall from 140p should be reversed. A PE of 6 is a bargain for a profitable business slowly expanding overseas.

Hopefully we will have good numbers and positive statements about sales in US and elsewhere.

I think it would help if the Trading update included some forward looking statement however brief (e.g. re offsetting April tax changes).

Is there honour amongst shorters ?

Probably not and with three shorting, last man out will presumably get stung.

Also there is nothing to stop the board asking for a better price - say 150p.

and/or an additional clawback when the Authentication completes.

I was looking at the half year report and presentation again earlier and everything was going in the right direction and looking good for the second half with price increases and some cost reductions feeding through. They have £500M issued as a bond that doesn't mature for nearly 7 years.

Sterling (& euro) is also down increasing the sterling value of any NA dollar sale.

Sterling has fallen about 7% against the dollar since October and the euro similarly.

Certainly Millipede is a brain dead useful idiot busy continuing the destruction of the UK.

If only we could have no politicians at all, because all they ever do is choke off and destroy the UK economy in the name of the most ridiculously misconstrued, stupid, and hypocritical virtue crusades. First we get £400Billion spaffed away failing to keep grandma alive for one more year whilst closing down schools and a third of the economy to inject people with an unsafe, ineffective experimental gene therapy. Now we get the painful recovery from the huge corporate debts and wild inflation produced choked off by taxing the UK economy back into recession - oh and this time we are freezing grandmas to death and letting them die in hospital corridors.