Member Info for Graviton

Bug, are you basing that on the shorting games going on here taking advantage of a period without trading news ?

I don't see any fundamental problem here. Travel is doing well. Any 'going concern' issues over debt are fully resolved. I find the CEO to be a good communicator that seems to have his head screwed on and is effectively executing a clear roadmap.

Well it IS trading profitably. Declared losses are to my mind ‘technical’ in that they are driven by the insurance business write downs of goodwill from the balance sheet. There are no cash flows associated with these writedowns, it is just a restatement of an intangible value on the balance sheet. While the net assets of a company are relevant to establishing company valuation, by far the biggest factor is profitability, and many companies trade at big premiums to their NAV because of their profit and cashflows.

This ugly duckling is showing some white feathers but ‘the market’ is not IMO reflecting it, despite ‘the market’ supposedly being a forward looking machine.

But I accept your statement as technically correct and welcome all counter arguments.

Good execution of the financial plans announced today. This will ensure completion of the new insurance partnership arrangements in the coming months and removes uncertainty.

IMO this is a profitable company and a good brand at a ridiculous valuation going forward.

Tell me how I am wrong.

Somebody bought over £160k of shares and the price didn’t react a jot.

I'd have said the SAGA brand identity is far stronger than that of TUI. TUI is a generalised holiday company. SAGA has a clear brand proposition targeted at the over 50's only, which also extends beyond travel. Witness how SAGA is the front end consumer facing part of the new insurance partnership.

This demographic focus makes a lot of sense to me. Over 50's have a lot of attractive attributes - lower risk, higher wealth, less economically sensitive.

Only 6 weeks to go now.

Shorter should be thinking about pulling his fingers out before the burning embers catch alight ?

Redemption notice is here...

https://newsserviceweb.oslobors.no/message/70271

The remaining 63M to be redeemed on 27th Feb.

Mobico holding increased to over £1.4M after adding £1.1M now about 1% of trust assets.

Just reading the tables in the smaller companies report.

Bizarre price movement today, down then up then down.

Shorter trying to engineer an exit ? Or market maker slipped a mickey finn ? Or someone getting trading tips from Grok3 ?It’s all a mystery.

Full details of insurance deal are obviously commercially sensitive for both parties. Not at all surprising they are not released. Not hard to make estimates. Goodwill write down will finish at some point soon and be done with. Plenty of debt should be paid down over next 2 years, ships would seem to be worth more if revalued.

A shorter sat waiting while this plays out will be nuts. Little UK market confidence around at present but the market looks forward and will recognise this pathway as it gets confirmed this year. IMO only.

Yes. No news scheduled now until 9th April. Feels like it is the last chance for the shorters to play their games. Perhaps engineering themselves an exit now ?

The path forward is clear now and being executed.

Ah, OK, I see it now. Thanks.

Anyone know the source for that claim of another short reduction by the way ?

Does anyone think a rights issue is really a possibility ?

Surely it would immediately trash the share price and be poor value for what it would raise, albeit that it would be investors that would have to shell out.

Switching from 'we are going to sell NA' to 'No we are doing a rights issue' would be an inconceivable U turn ?

Isn't the only decision selling NA or retaining it to use the profit to pay down debt. Cosmen's would want it gone, and many investors happy to take the uplift from selling it as long as the price is halfway acceptable. The only argument for a long term keep would be building a long term global business, but the rationale for that seems very weak, and I can't see any investors wanting promises of 2 birds in a bush when they can have one in their hand.

Thoughts ?

''Would Helen Weir walk out a few weeks before announcing the successful sale of NASB ''

That is loose language, she hasn't walked out, just announced she is moving on later in the year. If NASB is being sold and Cosmens make a move for the rest to dispose of bits they don't want, then being chair of a Spanish company likely wouldn't appeal.

With a Spanish COO appointed, Alex has lost any career progression so is off too.

In Germany isn't it most likely the politicians will kick the can down the road until after the election, so no immediate decision. Agreeing a deal now won't improve services before the election, refusing one will risk Mobico pulling out leaving an unholy political penalty.

If Mobico as is is too big for Cosmens to swallow, why would they not get Mobico to sell NA now. I can't see how they could magically get a better price themselves than Mobico can now.

I still don't see the logic of a global bus/transport company. There are no synergies I can see just a minor saving in head office staff. You cannot move US buses to europe or vice versa, you can't even move buses between uk and the eu, so no asset pooling or bus procurement economies of scale. Markets are largely national and so are regulatory regimes. You need to buy fuel in 3 different currencies and 4 different nations - so fuel hedging benefit seems negligible. Makes no sense to little me as a concept.

That doesn't mean there isn't tremendous value here to unlock.

Feels like internal discussions and decisions have been made. Those not in agreement or unhappy with the career consequences are leaving. A break up coming perhaps ?

Where are you seeing that ? I don't see it on the dashboard here, and I don't see it on Short Tracker !?

Where are you getting this from ?

Https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Reports/2025/20250210_EN_TUI_FY25_Q1_Statement.pdf-4cbc94049848f335038d380ace100b95.pdf

The offer to purchase the SAGA 2026 bonds has been issued. Response required for 14th Feb.

https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?filename=34119%5CEXT%5C0FA8972D5AB11FDF53C5B4D710EED0AD336DCBC5_BC8EC15F463EABECEB3BC457FD633229E1A1E030.PDF

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CCL/po-cruises-reports-record-breaking-january-v8khmkc3po84bcp.html