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I need the same myself Kev.

In China today the q4 coking contracts are at $200 a tonne. The shell makers are in shock. There is only one counter balance to this, and that is to buy iron ore pellets. Meanwhile the Chinese Govt is harassing the small steel makers over smog, the only solution is to use less coke and more pellets. Iron itself is holding firm after the week's holidays. so it looks sunny for Ferrexpo right now.

Do you have a for sale price ...?

nothing to do with charts here. what happened here yesterday and today is that the Chinese returned for their annual "Golden Holiday'. It traditionally marks the arrival of winter. Last year the market sharply fell on this day after it reopened after the week and kept falling. Yesterday, people were expecting the same, but the opposite happened, it opened up, and so did coking coal too.

Welcome. None of us are experts here. So be careful .

for £100 ….Boo

You are right on what you wrote. The reason the share rose so much is because the company has a massive debt exposure and its future was in danger, The rise in iron ore prices, especially pellet prices, has reversed its situation and the company is now making serious money, there is a serious risk as well, that relates entirely to the iron ore price, if it drops Ferrexpo will be in danger again, much the same as many miners to be fair, however I should add this is a low cost producer and if it can reduce its debt, it has a strong operating platform. The $400m it is expected to make in 2016 will break the back of its debt, another issue is the debt is short term making repayments schedules very difficult, but manageable just about.

answers to TopGuns questions? weekly and monthly figures? The simple answer is no, some people can use various pieces of the market jigsaw to estimate volume, but most tend to focus of the market price and our own production figures. These are easier to track. There is also worldwide steel production figures etc. PLATTS and other services can provide useful data. Ferrexpo do provide an annual global pellet figure in its reports. But that's always the previous years figures. Debt, the debt is entirely to do with a $2billion capex development over the last ten years. given the company is currently making $400m a year it was a good deal

The transfer from 62 to 65 pellets will balance out the slight drop in production when it comes to accounts, so this will remain broadly in line with most analysts figures so most traders won't adjust to compensate. The phasing out of 62 pellets is a good move with the desire for quality becoming more and more in favor especially in China. The arrival of new iron ore in 2017 will force the closure of high cost low quality producers. This will in itself reduce the supply in the market. so next year, as low cost production enters the market, if it forces the price down, it will also force some huh cost miners out of business, thus reducing supply, and ultimately the price will edge back up due to the supply being reduced. So, I see something of a stable supply, albeit the new supply of low cost ore replacing high cost ore, and the supply staying somewhat similar. but lets be frank, supply will and should rise, but not without losing some of the high cost producers production. As for pellets? The price of pellets tracks ore basic spot price, with the premium added. But coking coal prices has a massive impact on this too. If coking coal stays at sky high prices, the shell plants will shell out serious money for pellets. and China has said it will not assist the coking coal industry, it is making things hard for them because of smog and the environment. China wants more pellets used. This in turn is forcing the low cost steel makers who don't use pellets into bankruptcy and their production moving into the pellet using larger professional shell plants, that use pellets in great numbers. So the demand for pellets will remain very strong in China, and so will the premium. The other pellet markets are all nice and stable and Ferrexpo has a finger in every market so the geographic risk is spread. it is looking very solid for Ferrexpo and give this 6 months and a fine set of Y12 accounts with $400m profits and the grey suits will return.

very hard to say why production was down slightly, the ramp up from previous years was complete, the weather was good, no shipping issues, the market was strong.

The production figures are lower than expected and no explanation given either . The increase in 65fe pellets is a little help but does not cover the lost in production . High pellet prices are the savior here with EBITDA above $100m for Q3 at a time when that $100m will be needed come November for debt dates. Overall a relief that the Q3 was normal enough and the $100m is bagged. Hard to forecast ahead but this looks solid

at the top of the market so far so that was a tad gutsy. But, all indicators looking good. Q3 must have generated $120m EBITDA. Pity we don't get that trading update. October looking pretty damn good too. If a re-finance package is announced this share will jump 15% on the spot. That day gets closer with every month the profits keep pouring in with a huge markup margin. If this gets through the winter without a collapse in price. come next April and seasonal price rises. the CFO will be able to re-finance. A fantastic company with a ridiculously short debt maturities profile, this is like a guy trying to pay his mortgage off in 4 years. and he has a right chance of doing it, but really this needs re-scheduled payments over 8 years. Bet the CEO misses the divi.

Ukraine, I have done business there for many years, export and importing and I can say that I know few places in the world more frustrating and occasionally corrupt. Bit to be fair, the last times I have been there I have noticed big changes. remote border crossings have bi-ligngual signs, main airports no longer have extraordinarily long queues, as in a Q for a Q to get into a Q. lasting hours. They have really opened up. No longer are western passengers automatically chosen for the customs 'open your bag' ( to see what I can take ) routine. I get the sense that to is progressing and the USA -EU influence has been positive in this regard, aside from the conflict. I would fear taxes and levies in the future but they also may not want to kill the golden goose so industry may be left as it is in crucial export markets, Gobt tend to target soft targets like retail and small business. The big boys always seem to escape. But its a risk for sure.

Russia - Ukraine ? The parts of Ukraine that are volatile are the states or counties that are bordering Russia where the citizens are pro Russia . This mine is in a central area , slightly east that is pro Ukraine . The citizens are happy and the mine trades with the west . This is not aRussian target . Why have the prices not triggered a price rise? Hard to say why the market can behave strangely but it will come good

The Chinese have gone to war with the smaller polluting steel makers. Shutting them, halting them , fines. This is 1, forcing the small guys to buy pellets 2 closing the small guys and the big pellet using furnaces get the orders for steel , and the big plants all use the pellets . Better still , the Chinese Govt is forcing the Coking Coal mines to reduce production , this ups CC prices, up 200% and that forces them to use pellets . Pellets are the new Kong . 65fe pellets are super King . Ferrexpi is sitting on top. The pellet premiums are 35c these days - that's not going to change - pellets are key to ending Chinese pullout ion . High cost dirty steel mills are doomed, as are the low grade miners that feed them cheap ore. Good read here http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11Z0ES

debt here is too short. this should be over 10 years. This is like a guy with a mortgage and he wants to pay it all in four years. It's mad. Once it gets reduced to say $400m, the bond market will be happy to do deals.

Its making savage profits the last few months. Coking coal price explosion has driven pellet premiums through the roof. Ferrexpo is easily making $40m a month. The iron ore price crash will hurt the low quality product mines, and those with high costs. Ferrexpo is the opposite, low cost and a premium product. I has improved customer profile too. Next year as increased production world wide happens, Ferrexpo will weather the storm better. Its prices are rising and costs are falling. the debt here has scared off investors. This company will make $360m to $440m next year. Once the debt is halved here. It's big time money. it needs debt restructure and that will happen next year

Good find there,

where did you see that? Its not in an RNS or a Press release? Can you provide a link. 8 months update , are you sure ? seems odd.

it's interesting to see Ferrexpo breaking into the Korean market with its first long term written and supplied contract earlier this year. what most people don't know is the Korea uses 8% of all iron ore produced worldwide, compared to Western Europe 9%. In other words it's a huge market.