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Realdeal, Moody's is a ratings agency rather than a broker, perhaps you are aware of that so forgive me if you are, and they are very respected as neutral observers, and investors follow them, so getting a poor rating is bad. anyhow things will change.

One of the rating monitors of Ferrexpo, Moody's really need to explain themselves in relation to their report on Oct 2nd. Here is their market ratings report. https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Ferrexpos-Caa3-rating-and-changes-outlook-to-stable--PR_354894 scroll down to the part where Moody's estimate FY 2016 free cash flow to be $220m to $240m. Ferrexpo had already released their H! 2016 report at that time in which that stated that Free Cash Flow was $142m for the first half of the year. even if things had merely remained the same in H2 the Free Cash flow would have been $284m for the entire year. But Moody's estimated it at $220m to $240m Given that the price of Iron ore lifted during the second half of 2016 how the heck did Moody's come up with their estimate. so what is a realistic figure.? even if you give an extra $10 per ton as a guide. Ferrexpo would have $60 extra free cash flow in price increases alone. so H1 = $142m, plus H2 = $142m, plus $60m. = $342m This tallies with Standard and Poors EBIDTA estimate of $340m to $360m. Not quite the same as FCF but similar enough to compare. Since then things have improved even more. Moodys will have to re-rate when the FY results come out.

what a differevce a year makes. Best deal Possible under the circumstance . Quality partners but 66% hand over hurts . The debt finance will be a even split but their seems to be protections within the desk .

$70 broken in China today, tomorrow this rises again .

I bought more today at 101p

Agreed. Be great if they issued a trading update .

I have a price of £1.25 and that looks about right for me, but that will rise as times passes and prices holds.

H2, production figures in early Jan, and full results early in March . It's a wait and a lot can happen in 4 months . This report came after my post. http://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-went-berserk-again-on-monday-closing-at-the-second-highest-level-in-nearly-2-years-2016-11

The cost of 65fe pellets was at $98 this afternoon. the pellet premium hit $32.50.and the standard spot price was $. 65.50. I can't remember this hitting this level in along while. Remember in april when ore hot late $60s and it was the highest of the year. Yeah well premiums that day were $20. and this is November. Ferrexpo is having it's cake. at this rate EBIDTA is running at $49m a month. apparent the premium has been above $30 in China for nearly 2 months . hard to get info but finally got filled in today. I think the H2 for Ferrexpo is going to blow the analysts out of the sky.

The US elections will have an effect on all markets with most preferring a Clinton win. But I think a lot is factored in. So if trump wins expect a little wobble. As for Forrexpo, firstly we don't export to the USA so their can be no trade taxes on imports. So, I wouldn't fret. In general I think the market continues to underrate Ferrexpo and this will continue until March 2017 when they announce 2016 EOY figures. I predict EBITDA to be ahead of market expectations.

Yes, several releases, if good news comes before lunchtime GMT this will Lift .

When reading latest news on iron ore prices I'm always amazed at the different outlooks . ' iron ore set to collapse V Iron ore surges .... All on the same day in different papers. Now I tend to ignore predictions and follow the price itself . Yesterday was very strong in China. Coking up nearly 3%. As for Ferrexpo I see huge buyers and sellers yesterday , one trade was for £1 million . So it's not normal. The big steel mills inChina are making money again so I expect policy to continue . This afternoon trade figures I. China come out - I wouldn't buy or sell white noon here today .

Well Vale said it got $82.50 for its pellets in Q3. Maybe that helps you with your sums.

When the 110p price was negotiated the share price was around 110p so there was no 'drop your pants' painful discount to actual share price . What happened after was theSP raced ahead of the deal. So we have four price values 1: what the market traded at 127p yesterday 2, what JP Morgan value the share at . 110p . And 3 , what our second biggest SH valued his shares at 110p and today's traders 107p . Don't be shocked if the CEO does the same here. I think he should . Let's say the CEO sells 90m shares in a placing . He would generate £100m cash. This money could be used if the company nerda to do a real placing to raise urgent cash . So watch this space the CEO could be next and he'd be right to hedge his bets . I still value this at 125p

The actual deal with JPM is a little complex in itself.

So, JP Morgan gather up the boys club and the boys agree to offer 110p a share, please note that the offering was NOT fully taken up. It nearly was. so canny II investors will stop that. These new stakeholders will want a little discount on the value deemed in exchange for such a large investment . So in my humble opinion anything under 110p is in safe buying zone. I think those heavy weights in the shell business should buy here as a hedge against coking coal and pellet price increases. Ferrexpo is now the world's price setter for pellets being the lowest cost producer. I think Samarco will not reopen for a long time and even if it does production will be capped to watch the environmental side of things. so that is it. Todays placing does not change the fundamental value here, it merely changes the investors. long term its better not to have a 24% shareholder. NOTE THE CEO did not sell any of his, I actually think he should reduce to the 40% mark, and go to cash with 11% stake. This could be used as a cash injection should the market sour and the company needs to raise money over the next two years. And hey if the market raises, he still has the rise on the 40%.

The RNS caused confusion. It's a 'secondary placing', but not an normal 'secondary placing'. A normal one means the issue of new shares and that dilutes the existing shareholders. When the company sells its own shares, or a major shareholder sells its own existing shares ( because they have too many to place on the open market ) this is also called a 'secondary placing'. The reason is because in an IPO situation some companies deliberately hold back shares from the first IIPO fully intending to place them on the market later, and as such its deemed a secondary placing. The market does;t like it because it increases the free float of shares, and its deemed a slight lack of confidence. So this is not dilutive. However, this is a prominent shareholder reducing stock and the market ask 'why'?

I bought back a chunk at 104p, I'm back up to 50% of my original holding. To me this is just a share holder selling half his shares and that's allowed. Ok it increases the free float but it also adds more II investors to the share list. I still value the share at 125p, It's a buy at this price. GLA/DYOR.

Agree Matt.

Shape reaction to a secondary placing , one that does no dilute shareholders . I'd welcome a more balanced II shareholder list. But why the drop ? 1: the fact a director and major shareholder has sold has spooked the market 2 trouble at the mill? Who knows, I would say the placing was agreed when the SP was below 110p so it's not a distressed sale. I knew this would shake the market but not below 110p - that's what the II paid. I always say if you can buy below the placing pirice you are on a winner . Strange days