Member Info for granto

Normal play. Shares down 5% , that's a tidal swing..

It should make $100m Ebidta for Jan Feb, and will retire another €43m in Feb. that will help the debt ratios . With the bonds looking strong here a refinance is on the cards- makes sense .

The debt payment schedule is set rigid so they have no choice in this matter. Whatever happens the price of Ore in 2017, Ferrexpo wil have made $50m in January alone . The investors meeting in March will be a pleasant surprise - there could be another $100m in cash since Dec 31st. There is a large repayment around then too- but hey the Bondholders will be smiling

overdue, and in this game - that's either bad new or no news ( which is also bad news ).

Mine Minister said Samarco could be reopen in 2 months , owners didn't comment . Reality check ? The reality is even if the minister wants this and licenses are to be given , it will take months to get going. With crews etc. deep down do the big two really want this ? Answer ? Yes, but as it is now a charity project to them - it will be on their terms and their pace, I bet the grade of pellets will be low and the market place sales slow, this will never be pushed along

if in doubt ,sell . that's the oldest rule

Maksym, you are presuming $52m a month earnings. Iron ore would have to stay above $70 ALL year. That goes against all predictions from the experts - yes they called it wrong in 2016 but we are facing serious new production levels. I hope you are right

with ore at $83 today it is a surprise to see this slide continue. I mentioned here last week I suspect that it is one of the recent 'placing' participants taking advantage of the spike up to lock in profits. Or we could have another 'placing' underway behind the scenes. either way this will pass, the company will generate excellent results for Jan 2017, a record month of recent years, remember ore is at $83 and the CFO already reveal that premiums were up on last year. so lets say that is $33. total $116 a ton. EBIDTA for Jan easily over $50m. lets assume Feb does the same. Ferrexpo will hits its March meeting, with excellent end of year accounts, BUT with another $100m bagged and lodged in two short months. It's this total CASH of $245m that is going to totally take the market by surprise. roll on to the summer accounts. and this is going to look like a money making machine. But hey be warned mining is mining, anything can happen.

And more pellets.

The last placingwas good in a sense that it brought in a basket of investors making the company more stable long term . The CEO should do the same reducing his share to 30% but not until later this year and even then. Sell only 10% at first . This would give him the cash to support any placing if needed in the future and would also diversify his investment . If Ferrexpo gets into trouble again he'd have $100m in cash to buy cheap placing shares , if Ferrexpo booms he'd still have 40% of the company anyway . Plus the $100m So, I think our major shareholders should divest themselves here.

today's RNS should have added a minimum of 10% to 15% to the price here. Watching the price slide in recent days I suspect we have a seller and it's someone talking profits from the placing. a hunch.

Buried in the bottom of the RNS is a little nugget easily overlooked. It's a new product development as far as I am aware. 1Ferrexpo premium pellets plus (FPP+) contain 65% Fe with enhanced basicity and low temperature disintegration properties compared to FPP pellets. This is interesting and will have high demand should they choose to export more there. I'd like to hear more.

link does not work

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Ferrexpos-Caa3-rating-and-changes-outlook-to-stable--PR_354894

an excellent performance. The market has reacted slowly, but give the II time to peruse, So much for the ratings agency that predicted Ferrexpo may not be able to pay its debts in 2017. $145m

You are right.

I agree. It would help given the crazy year it was. Yet, I'd be surprised they are a pretty straight bat .

11.2m tons. 95% of production 65fe. tomorrow or friday we should know.

I bet the production report will be here 7am tomorrow.

I must admit I was getting very concerned for RR and the placing albeit at a low price, did prove that the company does have an Enterprise Value, or at least a director(s) who are close to the action are willing to put £1,000,000 extra on the line. decent prospect now for 2017