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Ferrexpo has gone to the market, with BNP Par for a syndicated $500 dollar loan. pre export finance. It's $350m with another option for a extra $150m. Closing date for banks wanting a slice is this week. Personally, I think it is too much to borrow, it is also over a four year period to maturity. The company has $250m cash on its books today, and is generating $45m a month EBITDA. This money is to be used to retire debt next year. How the market will react will be interesting, but it seems they already know the deal . hence the rise.

Hi folks, Just for fun I'll try and do some figures, not today mind you. However, before I start crunching the figures I can say that the pellet premium has been very erratic depending on the region. China's pellet premium dropped to a lowly $15 a ton, that's incredibly low, yet for a period in the EU it hit $45 a ton. wow. so its going to take a little teasing out. Pre agreed rates and premiums will have helped, slightly lower production. Capital expenditure up due to repairs etc. EU production figures up and steel strong. As a very rough estimate we could be looking at $42m a month net earnings or an EBITDA of around €250m for the six months. On target for $500m EBITDA for the year. so with this free cash of $250m lets knock off the $130m paid of the debt. in those 3 quarterly instalments. add on usually capital and slowdowns in production and I think there could be an increase in cash of $100m during the period. This cash boost coupled with the reduction in debt will boost the companies ratings but more practically this cash will be critical to the company next year when the bonds need to be repaid in H1. Speaking of those bonds, I am surprised that the company has not restructured its loans and debts but on the other hand it shows they are confident.

this time last year I did a value chart here and came up with the reasons why this was completely undervalued. I have sold some here but kept the bulk of my shares. The question is, should I do my 'sum of the parts' again. And try and place a value on this. I have held off awaiting the 6 month report. that I expect to be excellent. Anyone fancy playing out guess the figures game. If I may say so we ( and ) ) called it perfectly last time. so what will the 6 months H1 profit be ? EBIDTA ? Cash at Bank?

have no regrets , nobody gets out at the top,

i'm quietly enjoying this, nothing new to write or report really

Tungder, This mine is fully funded, not need for the dramatics.

cont…….permits, they will not ramp it up fully, my guess is this won't start until mid 2018 at the earliest. and then it will be a trickle.

I can't say exactly why, Iron ore is taking a pounding yet this rises. Clearly the war on smog continues in China and the pellets play a role in that. So premiums may be holding up. Ferrexpo paid yet another $47.5m off its debt in April so the balance sheet and debt ratios will look a bit better in the next accounts. The debt profile id weighted too heavily in the short term here, I think the CFO should raise a 'cushion $100m' with a repayment due in 2020/2021 to ensure smooth passage in 2018 and more so 2019, allowing a breather space between the two of 6 months. The recent rises here reflect a growing confidence in the share. As for Samarco, given the fact that the bondholders, banks, and lawyers, and environmental groups, will get the bulk of any money made from Samarco. there is little real incentive for the owners to restart it quickly, they will merely be adding to an oversupplied market, so it suits VALE etc to play this along, issuing positive press releases about the reopening, but never really pushing it along, remember it was supposed to be open in Dec 2016, lets assume Brazilian courts issue all the permits. a

delays things there, leaves the market to Ferrexpo for at least the last six months

translate google. ============= Ferrexpo will continue to invest in the processing of ore, increasing the output of concentrate and pellets Ferrexpo, a mining company with key assets in Ukraine, intends to focus on investing in the company's processing facilities in the near future, in particular to increase the production of iron ore concentrate and pellets, Ingrid McMahon, the investor and communications manager of Ingrid McMahon, said on Monday. According to her, the company intends to increase the output of concentrate, which will make it possible to increase the production of pellets from the current 11.2 million tons to 12 million tons. This project is planned to invest about $ 50 million during 2017-2018 with the completion of its implementation in 2018, possibly in 2019, clarified I. MackMehon. She added that in the future it is planned to increase pellets output up to 20 million tons - an order for engineering was made under this project. To achieve such a volume of pellets produced, an annual investment of $ 150 million is required for 5 years. In addition, $ 50 million of investment must also be invested annually to maintain existing capacity. "Thus, an investment of $ 200 million is required every year for 5 years," noted I.MakMehon, noting that the company's management is interested in stable growth of production and investments, mainly relying on its own sources of financing, although it also expects to attract pre-export Lending to international financial institutions at low interest rates. Answering a question from the Interfax-Ukraine agency about the possibility of conducting a second restructuring of Eurobonds in 2017 for $ 346 million with repayment in 2018-19., Which the company had previously stated, the manager replied in the negative: "Such negotiations with holders of Eurobonds are not held." During the briefing, I. McMahon noted that 2016 was very successful for the company: record volumes of high-quality 65% ​​pellets were produced, Ferrexpo increased market share with premium customers in key markets. In addition, there was a decrease in the cost of production to a 10-year low. The company also continued to repay the debt in full and on time, reducing net debt by $ 279 million to $ 589 million. At the same time, capital projects slowed down in 2016, the balance of cash increased by $ 110 million - to $ 145 million. As reported, Ferrexpo in 2016 reduced the production of commodity pellets from its own raw materials by 1.7% compared to 2015 - up to 11 million 71.40 thousand tons, from outside - by 68%, to 129.20 thousand tons. In general, this led to a decrease in total pellets production for the year by 4% compared to 2015 - up to 11 million 200,6 thousand tons (in 2015 - 11 million 661,60 thousand tons). In 2016, the total output of pellets with 65% iron content amounted to 10.535 million tonnes (an increase of 1.6%), from 62% to 665.6 thousand tonnes (a d

Simon, the issue is the facts and figures are not in the RNSs. It's a mystery company at the moment .

In layman's terms it's like having ticket that pays a dividend annually. Unlike a share it is backed by the assets of the company, so bondholders have more protection than shareholders. If the bond, is trading above 100%, it is extremely strong. that's a very rough way to explain it.

an 8% drops seems overdone, funny how a few weeks can change things, from we are not re-scheduling loans and paying two dividends, to gee whizz the price of ore had dropped 20% in a fortnight. As I said before Ferrexpo locks in its contracts annually, 3 monthly, so our pricing is from Jan 1st and April 1st, which means the H2 profits are pretty much bankable and that's $300m EBITDA. when that gets announced in August, this will rebound. GLA

what does that mean? This share tracks Iron ore, regardless of what is happening within the company, mostly, Iron is getting a pounding, so that's it folks. Even at this rate ferrexpo should be still making $45m a month EBITDA. Better news is that contracts are agreed last week of march and first week of April, so at least this current fall is protected. The dividend looks premature now. They should have waited until 2018

Ferrexpo will stay like this until August and the H1 report.

The critical well to ensure viability was and now is S 375 . What the heck were they doing drilling a step out wild cat S-374 well when S 375 would be required in the event of a non commercial S374. They got this backways. This devalues the company by 10% for the delay to 2018. A further devalue in that they could delay again if S-375 is a duster. Clearly 375 should have been done first !

seems unlikely that a barrier is holding this back, its just normal trade to my eyes.

the upside, is this company can and will clear its debts barring an absolute crash in iron. and once it is debt free the company will be worth several billion

most of us here love the Ferrexpo story, It's only black spot is a huge debt pile. needing to be paid over a very short time period. The CFO said the debt should be repaid at $10m a month. That's about right, but its double that. 2018 will be a draining year with massive repayments.

Brokers are prone to ****ging off shares that a separate arm of the company are buying like hungry fish. Some of the brokers targets are so far off the mark one wonders when they were last looked at. DB have actually given it a high rating so each takes their own view. My advice is to examine it as if it were your own company.