samarco - no time soon.20 Feb 2018 12:51
Ferrexpo's biggest and most efficient competition - Samarco, will no be reopening any time soon following BHP's report today. here is a snippet. ""Restart of Samarco's operations remains a focus but is subject to separate negotiations with relevant parties and will occur only if it is safe, economically viable and has the support of the community. Resuming operations requires the granting of licences by state and federal authorities, community hearings and an appropriate restructure of Samarco's debt"". There are clearly lots of hurdles, the community won't be an issue, licenses will come once proper compensation has been made, and that's complicated, and even if these are all settled up, the issue of debt remains. somehow, I feel that VALE and BHP will lose this asset, likely seized by another power, bondholders or a government agency, and will eventually reopen as a state owned asset, with profits pumped into that region, for its benefit. This legal wrangle will take years. BHP are questioning the viability of the whole project unless everyone plays ball. The govt will put themselves in a position of control, the asset is with zero to the bondholders without licenses, and these won't be given unless compensation has been secured, therein lies the issue. meanwhile Ferrexpo controls the low cost base end of the pellet market.