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What an interesting set of results, production and sales all in line with expectations, But the C1 S$41.60 per tonne buried the share today, that was a savage increase. So is there any silver lining for H2 ? Yes, production should be up, and sales up when the 300,000 tons in stores sold, adding another $30m to H2 figures, H2 will also have less interest payments, a saving of $10m, lets add 5% extra production translated into profit say another $10m, all adding an extra total of $50m, and I estimate extra cash flow due to hardly any debt repayments, of say $75m additional cash flow. So we should have an additional total of $125m cash to add to todays cash, FERREXPO should wrap the year with $200m in cash, and another $40m coax poured into the production line upgrade, With debt repayments due in 2019, its leaving things a little tight, and the CFO is right to draw some of that $70m down. He should tap another $25m out of it before Christmas, Once the 2019 debt is paid off the pressure will be off. The whole dividend policy needs to looked at and is either Vanity or a CEO looking to cash in chips. I'd pay no dividend in H@ and promise to look at it in H2 2019. It is needless cost to a company in the middle of a massive debt repayment period. steady as it goes here.....CFO playing a stormer, CEO doing fine, but a little too pushy

It doesn't really matter if they are, or are not here. Nice to have institutional investors to keep an eye on things but it is not essential, and small changes mean little. Ferrexpo will some issue figures for Q1 and H1, and while last year was excellent a lot of cash was ploughed into opex and the figures were not as shiny as they could have been. Things are going nicely here, Iron prices are respectable, pellets continue to attract a premium, the aggressive payback of debt continues. Samarco remains shut, sadly but its a mercy to Ferrexpo as its main low cost competitor. the hard days are over here, the next report released I hope gives an uplift with debts down, capex in, production up, cash position improved,

£300,000 secured against a £1,000,000 mine, at 7% interest, with a prospect of recovery . Not as sloppy as it looks

yes, but this mine is not a producer of such stones,

It is nearly there, I'm surprised this has not lifted. that is mining

Hello Relephant, I hope you are keeping well, and nice to see you keeping an eye here. I think you are hard on yourself, you researched hard, and settled for the win, that did not come on this one. I was lucky to know Bernard Oliver personally and liked him, he was very open and honest, and bench marked against other CEOs he was a very good man. I bought in for the Tanzanite and got dragged into the plan B sapphires. Bernard had a plan, though he found the demand for Sapphire was not a strong as the Tanzanite, and costs were higher in Oz, not to mention corporate expenses of a small m-cap in start up. He needed, high production levels, or some really big stone finds, neither of these happened. everyone took their chance. When a company gets to this level, the directors and executives eat first, and the shareholders are further down the food chain, and sadly there is not much here to eat. Now, maybe just maybe, they hit lucky. No regrets from me, I met you and Colin here, and I have fond memories of those times. Merger with GF is the best option here, but I can't see it.

good article in the Phoenix up until the last line about Pat Plunkett buying the �100,000 worth of share when he joined up. This was in all likelihood a 'hello' handshake from you know who, it is extremely common, I would have thought the Phoenix would have known that. But it's a very good article.

No obvious reason . Premiums are sky high .

impossible to say, it is a massive draw back, maybe it was deemed top heavy, certainly there is no change in the company other than small tweaks in production. I don't expect a move upwards until the next set of results, and that with an announcement of increased production, strong financial earnings, and more debt reduced.

Still no progress. Looks like 2019 at this stage

The sharp fall may partly to be with no increase ahown in production despite huge capex in maintenance last year, and new its continuing in Q2. But, they also say F18 will be up om F17.

selling from the CEO is my uninformed guess, i am not spooked. If it is him,,

They are pumping a generous dividend saying it is a mark of their confidence, I personally think it is a way of the CEO generating some serious cash release for himself. From a business perspective the priority should be Debt, expansion, first and then when these are both advanced to a better position, and the market remains strong, the reinstatement of dividends, if dividends have to be done they should be half what was declared. But, credit where it is due, the CFO has done a fine job here. Mining is a volatile business and debt is the miners worst enemy.

I openly confess i am somewhat out of touch with PVR, but i know Chinese companies like this very well, they love shopping but hate spending . I hope they get the deal, and i hope TOR gets the luck his family deserve after the AIB hammer blow.

A decent stab at the figures. Align wantt to know why the SP did not lift? The answet is that the new partners have yet to be proven, if that $60m or $100m was ringi fenced, then PVR 50% would alao be worth $60-100m . Just for BR. Ads on the value of the rest of the portfolio ? A wild guess here $30m ? And PVR is now values at $100m less the loan repayments $60m .... leaves about $50m value here, but to be fair there are so many elements it seems impossible to put a figure on it. No wonder the markets confused . But frankly , until i see the $100m i won’t have peace of mind and no figures matter until then

What wouldI I do ? I’d work on the basis that either way i’m $20m saved if its uncommercial on well 1 and they can’t advance . AND 2, if it is commercial They will proceed to well 2 and 3, costing up to $40m to $70m more with tests etc. An eventual 50% cpuld be sweet ......... bottom line ? $20m is $20m take the deal

I think TOR is very honest in his SBP interview about still needing to be ‘ getting the deal done’ . It’s not a done deal . DAVY admit it has a 75% chance of happening. These Chinese middlemen, are the industry Venture Capitalists, that thr consortium are shielded behind. It is a non recourse loan - that’s good - i thought it was linked to other portfolio assets. It’s an MOU not a farmout yet, as TOR said, hopefully later this year. It is a good deal for the chinese, lets face it they can vanish after the first well ,$20m , blame the consortium. $20m for a ‘sale of return ‘ stab at BR, it it comes up trumps the chinese have spent $20m on a winning ticket, if its a duster dud —— scram lads back to China, forget wells 2 and 3. The representative are only a middleman remember , a face. Who ate the ‘consortium’? Still, hats off to TOR, he got a deal on the table. My conclusion 1, it has a 50% chance of going ahead MOUs fall apart alot especially with Chinese middlemen 2, if it goes ahead unless well 1 gushes well 2 and 3 will never happen - so its a $20m stake in BR for 50% and 80% of first production. 3, if a Major promised three wells it would happen guaranteed - this is different , . Remember the old auctioneers adverts ‘ Principals ONLY’, it meant no middlemen please . So, its a good deal - if signed with a Major oil co, but it’s a poor deal signed with an ‘agent compant ‘ for a consortium unamed .

3 wells my bottom, if the first well is a dud the Chinese could vanish. So for €25m they finance well 1, if its sweet great - if not it has only cost them €25m . Worth the gamble of a 50% and 80% of first production, those rights will be sold on in the event of success . The entire €75m would need to be ringfenced - good luck there .

When I heard it was a Chinese ( Hong Kong ) company I was concerned, and imagined in my mind what we were dealing with - a company shadowed behind the red curtain, that lashed a load of provisos into the deal and the word 'warrants' was in there. The company and the deal is exactly what I had envisaged. It's not all good or bad, the Chinese have negotiated well, and represent a consortium, whoever they might be. The good side is this is a full carry, though no figures have been released, I'd imagine $40-$60million as a very wild estimate, and if the project is a flop, they get their 'loan' secured on the other assets in the portfolio. Though called a loan, it is not far off venture capital equity into the company, because it Barryroe is not commercial, then they have a lien of sorts ? am I right ? on the other assets ? crush the figures on that. again oh so rough, their $50 million pushed the market valuation here of the PROJECT to $120m, but given these Chinese get 50% of the take its $60m value to us less, the 80% siphon at that start, and I call it $50m, and given the lien on the other r portfolio asst profits, it totally devalues them. BUT here is my BUT, IF, Barryroe comes good, everyones a winner, and those pesky warrants are not too severe in volume. I haven't had time to really look into this as I only keep a small stake here. It really comes down to how confident you are and Tony is that BR will be commercial. Now here is my final prediction - THE DEAL WILL NEVER GO THROUGH> the Chinese are notorious tyre kickers.

The results were broadly as expected so the fall back in price seems unexplained. The few little surprises were 1, the special dividend that seemed adventurous given the large two-year bond repayments we are facing into, I really think that dividends should have waited until debts were within sight of their finishing maturity line. 2, maintenance works and costs ongoing - we have learned that the maintenance works are only 50% complete, and already $100m has been spent. What hurts here is that production has not increased in line with it, but rather just sustained, though they promise a small lift on H2 2018 over H2 2017. There is little by way of expansion, though some probing of other mining potential areas is underway. The ramp-up is hardly hyped so perhaps they wish to clear the debt before launching into this, and that's prudent, EBITDA was strong as were all major fundamentals. as things are progressing I would have liked to here more 'post period comments', other than that they expect premiums to be higher in 2018 over 2017. to surmise, Production will be up in 2018, and premiums will also be up, so combined we can expect a minimum of 10% increase in EBITDA and likely 20%. That's my humble take on it.