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The weakening of the local currency is adding another 50c per ton profit. or €6m a year FCF. The drop in oil prices will help in energy costs. about 3 c a ton. so all these little extras are helping. Brazil is also a factor, Saamarco will be delayed in reopening, and last week removes 10m ton from the overall supply, that is not such a big deal, but it is spooking people.

The buy back programme has largely been ignored by the market, and the share price has actually fallen. In these uncertain times the aggressive payback of debt, of holding cash would make more sense than paying off those jumping ship. The same applies to the dividend, it is too high. Such luxuries are for debt free companies. At £22 this is value but if a recession bites they will rue the buyback programme and won't be thanked for it. $7b in debt should be addressed first before buybacks.

Lucan, there is a massive pensions debt. currently €60m. This is the elephant in the room.

This seems extremely low considering the year the company just had. I think the CFO needs to clarify the financial situation with more figures. Net debt improved by $60m in 2018. Capex considered but is not increasing output either in a short term. Disappointing

your assessment is very good.

correction..

No more speculation. Tony O'Reilly says the first vertical well will be $20m, and it will be less for the add ons because the unit is onsite, My own estimate could be €12m for each, and add on $6m for a side track? Thats a grand total of $74m.... but only the first one if official, the rest are my calcs. This Values Barryroe at $90m EV. This is a rough estimate but it is the best one posted here to date...in my ever humble opinion. and we end up with 36% of that, so our slice is worth $36m......not great but this is a fire sale of sorts. I'm taking the warrants into account.... If they strike lucky,,,,this could rocket like NASA, but for now, $36m is my value on the Barryroe deal for PVR...

Thank you all, appreciate that. So it is not a formally announced $250m drilling programme, this is only a make up estimate an analyst has thrown up as a suggestion. Until we know this EXACT figure this share is not 'calculable' bar its base line figures and that's lower than where it is now. Has anyone asked ?

Sell or Buy?
Impossible to advise without your back story. The best stab I can have it it, is give an opinion that the best investors, are long term investors, and edge in slowly, and out slowly. Mining is risky. This could rise to £8 a share in four years and I think it will. So that's nearly four times its value. Or you can buy a house etc but will it go up x 4 in four years....We are not allowed to advise you here, we can only cast an opinion. If in doubt financially, sell. If you are happy to weather the storms, then this can x 4 bag in four years. don't bet the oak and do your own research always.... best of luck and seek expert advice as always

I apologise, can someone please help me. I cannot find where it says the 5 or 5 wells are costing $250m to drill as posters below say, and we surrender 50% for that investment. I have read the RNSs several times. If someone can show me that, I think I'll fill my boots.

It is highly speculative to say of PVR has gotten a good deal here or not. On balance I think they have. $39m in drilling in waters that are uncertain, derisks this for this small Oily, in exchange for 54% (4% in warrants ). The warrants is the crafty part of the deal for the Chinese, because 9% of the company is a nice compensation because any other operation of PVR could turn golden.

I have read more exploration farmout RNSs than I have Sunday newspapers, and this one is utterly confusing. Can someone here assist my understanding of the deal. It mentions a loan, but it does not mention how much the loan is for? I assume, terrible we have to make assumptions, but I assume this is the $19.5 cash advance PVR gets, Now to add to the confusion, they money is for? $9m front loaded project related costs, and then the $10.5m to cover 'future operational costs'. Ok so have PVR just handed over 50% of Barryroe, for $19.5m loan. So, this being the case, they are saying the entire Barryroe fields are worth $39m for 100% share. $19.5m x 2. Ok, so if its a flop the site is worth nothing and PVR have invested nothing, fully carried. But if it is a commercial well. Great PVR has 40% STAKE, reduced by the 10% warrants, so we now have a 36% share. But this drops to 20% while the $19.5m is repaid. ...One question I have is all this really expected to be drilled for $19.5 million? What happens if it costs more? who pays what?, Or is the drilling costs $39m and PVR have already been loaned their $19.3m. that makes more sense but they do not say that clearly. Or is it $19.5m total project finance, half of which must be repaid as a loan. PVR has never had good RNS's and this is another confusing one.

mining can be a strange business, and the unexpected always happens, but, I am a long time investor here, many many years, and finally here it comes. The moment of truth. As a rule of thumb a quality miner can take a 100% mark up on production. This should give wriggle room for all shortcomings and mishaps. This project should have 150% markup. I'm no expert but as long as tungsten remains over $175 the wheels will keep turning here. But $275 per ton, will be needed to make it sweet.

City statement. Do your own research gents. F Inst always issue these BUY_SELL_NEUTRAL recommendations. It is a complete spoof. We all know that they shout buy while selling, this is a game, the best way to play is to do your own research. Never mind the brokers, the ratings agencies are fair, but 6 months behind the game. always. The biggest factor with Ferrexpo is Iron ore prices. The top cats are lazy and track this purely on Price of Iron. Here is a question , remember this was £3 a share, well what has changed since then? Iron ore is higher, debt is lower, plant upgraded more, production slightly up. so what is this a £2? The only downside I can see is that production did not ramp up with the refurbishments, so these appear to be essential maintenance rather than plant enhancement is many ways, also, the cost of the plant life refurbishments has been much slower and much more costly than anticipated. BUT, this is coming to an end, and on the ground things look great, it is a real money maker, but the debt maturities and refurb costs cast a shadow. If you can look past these, into 2020, this firm will be an industry leader with no loans, and pumping $500m profit annually. I think this is now worth £3 a share and as each 6 month report comes out it will get better and better. DYOR

The reason for the price rise is based on one primary factor. Pellet prices are rocketing and are higher today then they have been for years, including times when this SP was £3. also, Samarco, our biggest competitor has revealed they will not restart in 2019. Nobody can undercut Ferrexpo only Samarco. The swedes have had a shutoff interruption, Ferrexpo's own production has been a little lower too, Europe is going well, and the Chinese continue their environment programme. Pellets have been changing hands from $125 to to £145. In a nutshell this will increase Cash Flows by $100m in H2 2018. all variables not considered. the weakness in Sterling is also a small factor helping this. I expect this to keep rising.

It has been a painful drop, but there is no adequate explanation for the slide, other than an overheat to begin with when it hit £3. The cash generation of the company has been impressive, but has been offset by the a long and expensive refurb of the production plants, and it is still ongoing. Also, the output following the upgrades has hardly been impressive, leading me to think these were 'essential' repairs, rather than an expansion plan, and this was something the market was not aware of. All that said, the upgrades have been done, and the company is a good money maker. hassles with trains emerged recently but hardly a major issue. The recent loan raise proves the company is in good shape. The next set of accounts / report with show three things, 1, A massive increase in cash in the 6 months, 2, Production increased 3, more upgrades to the plant etc. and this time next year a massive load term debt will have been paid back.

I posted figures year a long time back, so you'll have to fish them out. It has been a while, I remember being quite detailed. since then the industry has picked up.

Decent result but hardly a dam buster.

The big news recently has been the new $400m credit facility, with a two prong aspect, an increase of $200m to draw down on, and an extension on the pay back period from 3 to 4 years. When the original $200m circa was secured I thought it needed 4 years rather than 3. The refurbishment of the plant has taken linger than expected and cost more than investors expected too. A rate of 4.5% over Libor is cheap money as miners can expect to pay double that. What this means is that Ferrexpo can proceed with the return and expansions plans without applying cautionary brakes. This summer's figures were a little frustrating as debt repayments, interest, and refurbishment and upgrades mask a performance of a company that is an excellent producer. Debt can be the death of many a profitable company, and to my mind Debt repayment should take priority over juicy dividends. The CEO who lost most of Ferrexpo's cash in his own bank might be advised to proceed with caution as in mining anything can happen, and debt can bury you. All told I think this is a cracking company and the CEO and CFO have batted brilliantly through the storms in recent years. One final note, I don't like multi bank loans, because if trouble strikes negotiations become very difficult, but hey that's not a factor, yet.

I am still in this one. I don’t sweat the small stuff. Mining atarts can get delayed. It looks very professional . -