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The CFO must act quickly and issue a Trading Update for the first four months, and include in it, 1, that the Eurobond was paid back in April $170m , 2, the sales figures, 3 costs 4 guideline profit for the four months, 5 a short term projection for the 3 months ahead. ... This should show the company bagged $180m EBITDA in the last 4 months. This is essential to steady the boat and give confidence here.

When I saw the price drop I got a surprise, a mini shock, when I read the RNS I was calm. Yes it relates to a portion of the $100m but I wanted a worse case scenario appraisal. The auditor has already signed off on last year's accounts, this is all to do with the potential money laundering of a maximum of $100m that is being denied by the company. Lets say for a moment this goes to court, the worst case, is pay the tax on the full $100m as if it were drawings, that is about $30m. That's it. The auditor wants no part of the potential case and clearly thinks it cannot back the Board of Directors defence of the matter. They may well be right, The CEO If, and I stress IF is proven guilty of tax evasion or using charity to launder money then in theory he faces jail, but given he'll have a defence he already believes makes him innocent of all charges, I suspect at worst he'll get a huge fine, and a humiliating tongue lashing off the judge, and the money will have to be paid. This is the worse case scenario as I see it. The downside is $30m yet the drop today has knocked several $100m off the Market Cap....a complete oversell. Normally if the Auditor walks, so should you, but this is different, this is not a money decision, it is reputation. The CEO is going to go through some serious personal embarrassment here whether he is innocent or guilty, but the company has not changed bar the $30m potential tax payback and repetitional damage this causes.

In the first remark I will say the auditors resigned because they clearly don't buy the company's story in relation to the charity's links to the company. If they auditor is correct the company will face State proceedings, and maybe certain board directors. This will be resisted and fought in the courts, and such a case will take several years. The biggest downside for the company is a fine and repayment. Given the amount donated is $100m the tax and penalties could hardly amount to much more than $20m to $30m at a push. The biggest fear is the CEO is somehow being linked, and again any fine, if proven all amount to the same $20m to $30m....small money for a man with $700m in liquid financial assets. The biggest damage here is 'credibility'. This will pass, the 6 months H2 results will be strong, and end of year will have EBITDA of $500m to $600m. The CEO won't be resigning as he has the majority share, so the management team will remain. Normally the auditor resigning spells disaster, but not here, as I said, by the time this rolls through the courts Ferrexpo will have bagged another $1billion in earnings, and will be debt free. (net). As I said, if they lose the case, the fine will be $25m or so and the auditor will be wondering why they walked away. I find the CEO a modest man who will be hurt by this and will come through this quietly in time.

The company has said it is not ruling out a return to the money market to change its debt maturity. This could be a altering of existing debt, or borrowing more, with a later date for repaying. As opposed as I am to borrowing more money, this is a good idea to protect against a downturn.

I think Ferrexpo need to issue a trading update. The US $173 million Eurobond was repaid on 4 April 2019 and this was not reported to the market, nor therefore was it explained where the money came from to pay this off. Was there a drawdown of US $200m credit finance, and why was this also not announced at the time? I also think a cash position and trading update would be helpful. The report is in-depth but if you are spending $200m on Capex, please give more detail to the features and immediate benefits of this. It is nice to say goodbye to a 10% Eurobond. The firm is now borrowing at roughly 6% at my calculations, adding an extra $6m to the bottom line in savings.

The Edibta is very healthy here, and this year should be even sweeter, though there are some concerns. The plunging of $200m or $300m into a ramp-up in a single year is an eye-opener, and highly aggressive especially for a firm with such a massive short term debt to service. Such is the bravery of a Billionaire owner, but would he be so brave if everything he owned was riding on this drive. I doubt it. I would prefer some caution and that he tackled the debt, even for a year, and fire on with the expansion once it is dealt with. That said, the first 18 week this year could be stronger than expected and we won't have to wait long to get the results, but a $300m investment in 2019 is full steam ahead stuff.

pretty much in line, a little light on the current situation. $200m to $300m is capital costs this year ? er which is it?

Well there it is. I can see now why the charity issue is important. It is part of a legal responsibility in Ukraine, and if it were to be proven that funds were misused, and then linked to a director like the CEO, then the Govt could insist on Ferrexpo paying up again, and given that $100m has been gifted, this is a very serious matter. The good news is, 1, the report indicates strongly, so far, that the CEO is not linked, or not dangerously linked, and 2, the amounts are less tat ¢100m......still messy stuff to be dealing with.

I am always surprised at the over-reaction, to good and bad news. My own take on this, is that someone or people of senior rank and position is under serious investigation, and for legal reason the Board of Directors have to tread carefully. I would have thought that any donation to a charity would be a matter for the charity, and not ferrexpo's immediate problem per-se. They already said the year end results were delayed but expected to be on target. Perhaps, they want a clean report so think it is worth holding off.

Today's RNS was unexpected. Just how the charity's use or misuse funds affects the bottom line is strange and unexplained. This involves only a few million dollars, a week's profit for this firm, so this drama seems overdone, unless there is unseen reasons for this.

It is an interesting one. To be fair, commissioning is never on time, ever. And in Spain, they did well to get it this close. The Spanish do everything slowly and surely, from waitressing to water pump installation systems.

Ferrexpo's new director Lucio Genovese is chairman of an interesting company, Firestone Diamonds PLC, you can check their incredible performance on this site as it is a listed company. To say it was a painful for investors would be paying it a compliment. I know nothing about his other ventures, but this one hardly inspires joy. Lets hope he brings better fortune here.

This is good news, The contracts Ferrexpo signs FIX the pellet premium for 3 months or six months, ocaassiobally for a year. So the base price changes. So Ferrexpo gets the full benefit of these changes.

Let's crunch this quickly, debt is $420m ( net debt $360m ). They hold $60m in cash and have access to another $200m debt facility, and generating $50m a month in EBIDTA, with three months grace until April 2019. They are on target to hit nearly $700m EBITDA this year. What will this look like in 12 months time, or 5 years time? A quick opinion, They will have cleared lots of debt, be holding much more cash, and have continued to upgrade the plant to ensure a 12m ton a year production run. Soon, this company will be debt free, fully upgraded plant, and pumping $800m a year profit. Allow a free years of that, and you have a company holding a few Billion in cash, no debt, and pumping $800m a year in profits. Solid as a rock then. So in five years I think this will be 5 times the current share price. Now take your home.....will it be the same. Unlikely. So, this is a smart buy. In the short term? I can'y say clearly but it will continually go upwards as debt becomes less and less, it is the emeny of the SP here.

I rarely mention my buying here, buy I have been steadily buying here over the last few days. The iron ore price has rocketed from $68 to €88 a ton in the last four days. This pushes EBITDA from $500m a year to $700m if it sticks of course. Rapid debt repayment and Capex refurbishment, and dividends has held the financial position here down. Soon this debt will be cleared, the output up to 12m tons, fully refurbished plants.

Milking, I have taken the time to read the report. In 2017 the CEO gave the charity $24m to carry out its charity work, that is a state requirement of Ferrexpo. Later Ferrexpo gave the same $24m to the charity who used Ferrexpos money to repay the $24m. Now, I can take a guess here. I think Ferrexpo did not have the $24m in 2017 and was under pressure, and the CEO used his own company to pay the money, and later when Ferrexpo was flush they paid over the $24m and the charity refunded the CEO controlled private firm its original $24m.... I see no dishonesty here. I only see a CEO trying to assist and he gave the company a loan, unofficial perhaps, but done for the right reasons. Have no complaint, what happened in 2018 is a different matter.....this is more serious and the CEO is highly unlikely to have a part of it...... he is not stuck for $9m when he owns $700m is shares here.

Anyone wanting a 'take' on him should watch the company presentations, these videos speak volumes of him. He is remarkably humble, and his interest in charity goes back a long time. As for the bank collapse, lets remember this was hugely humiliating for him, but the collapse of Ferrexpo at that time to 39p a share, wiped his wealth down by hundreds of millions, so the bank collapse was hardly deliberate. He takes his charity seriously, and again, watch the videos on their website. This is a wholesome man. I cannot see greed in him. Humble is the word I would use, and thats rare in it FTSE company. He once had super yacht mind you, but I think he has grown up. I watch his coporate responsibility and charity work, and I like the way he does it, often without fanfare. He is clever but humble clever and that is exactly the type of man I invest in

someone spotted a discrepancy in the charity's bank statement,The CEO blew a fuse, and called in the riot squad accountants and lawyers. The end of year will be produced on time, showing $500m EBITDA. The 'review' is over this charity bank statements. maximum involved is $9.5m, so the discrepancies are less than that. The accountant's comments are intended to be demonstrative and dramatic, and given this money was already off the company books so how it affects things is anyones guess. I suspect it does not unless the company is obliged to make up a shortfall. A few million here or there at most. No big deal compared to €500m EBIDTA and a Billion dollar company.

The selloff today is a great buy-in opportunity. The issue is over to my mind, The Board of Directors has boxed it off. though the accountants have been harsh in their language here, and don't like it. This company is making $10m a week EBIDTA. This issue relates to $9.5m. Yet $135m gets tipped off the share price. That's not right. I have bought in. By this Friday Ferrexpo will have made the $9.5m back in full.

this is not the driver, it is the price of Iron ore, coupled with Oil price drops, and an announcement yesterday that the company is buying 200 rail cars. they have 2200 already, so it is all a signal to the market, Brazil helps, as Samaro could be delayed, or impacted in other ways,