Member Info for granto

March 22nd . $252m in cash Debt reduced by another $48m in Feb. Premium plus pellets in demand Pellet premiums strong Gross margins widened A statement on restructuring debt.

£1.69p ... nothing wrong with that.

I think you should have waited for the results…

I keep an eye on it here.

Nice profit

Will the sun ever rise here ....

Not sure Maksym, there is nothing in the market to cause this, that I know of, could be internal, or simply a seller off loading. I'm looking forward to Match 22nd,

Nothing out there I can see, just seems like a selling day.

The conformed results from last year are already pretty much a given and known. What may surprise the market, I hope, is the 'Post 31st Dec' report. In this post report I expect to hear two major things. 1, that Ferrexpo has generated $60m EBITDA in Jan, $70m in Feb, and $50m for the first 3 weeks in March. That's $180m cash generated. It may be weaker due to production but i'd factor $10m for that. $170m EBITDA. Knock off $42m paid of the debt in Feb 2017. and we are looking at an extra $128m cashed up and bagged for the first 11 weeks of this year. Even allowing for a few nasty surprises I expect we will have an additional $100m in cash. That's roughly $250m in total. ( and remember $42.5m wiped off the debt too. with 6 month contracts the Q2 and Q3 should produce $300m EBIDTA. Q4 is too early to estimate. we should be able to forecast entering Q4 with a further $85m paid off our loans and be sitting on at least $400m in cash. At that stage the market is anyones guess. Lets assume the worse and ore drops to $60 a ton. and premiums a horrific $20 a ton = $80 a ton. That will give us a $30m a ton margin, or roughly $27m a month EBITDA. the Q4 loan will bite another $42.5m of our cash. But we will wrap up the year with $440m in cash. $170m debt paid back in the year. and still making $27m a month clear. This will be more than enough to see us through 2018. debt repayments for 2018 are $350m ( going on my memory here on that figure ), our cash alone will see us through those debts, My estimate is Ferrexpo will finish 2018 with $250m in cash. Meaning 2019 will be a cruise. 2020 will see it debt free and pumping $300m a year profits and maybe a lot more depending on the ore market.

We may continue to see a softening of price here, But with ore at $92 and premiums at $30 we are generating around $70 a ton profit. at 1m ton a month, that's $70m a month EBITDA. I expect a very robust set of figures to update later this month. meanwhile; the promised bear collapse has not happened. Later this year ? I doubt that. Some predict a 30% drop to $65 a ton. I think that the quality ore will hold better than that. Plus [pellet premiums will be sustained. As the dirty low cost shell mills get closed, the pellet using mills that buy pellets will take the slack of the closed mills, and get busier. So the demand for pellets will be sustained.

News leaking from Brazil point to Samarco possibly opening in Q3 this year. It seems the legals are making progress and licenses could be in place by mid summer and a re-oprning in Q3. even if this did happen, i would make several points, 1, it would take a few months before the product would reach the market so its Q4 before the market gets disrupted. 2, Ferrexpo has long term contracts, so its customers cannot switch supplier regardless of new supply. 3, Samarco will only be able to produce to 60% capacity and all proceeds will go towards cleaning up the company and the environment. but its actual cost of production will be higher due to weaker economies of scale. 60% capacity, and I imagine they will be more expensive then Ferrexpo this time around. so i don;t see undercutting, Ferrexpo will control the price premium. 4, samarco is not a guaranteed supplier so customers will be cautious to give them contracts ……all of this is IF it reopens. I suspect there may be more snags and delays before the wheels get moving. …and lastly, even if they do get up and running. Ferrexpo will have the entire of 2017 to itself. By which time, some serious money will have been made.

Report says it's no Impact - focus on high grades .

For a split second I thought we were on the same street -that was a bit freaky - anyhow hope he keeps buying

His address is similar to mine ( mr Duming ) , nearly neighbours

No idea Kev, I'm a bit if a stubborn Irish mule , I have stuck it out and will keep at it. Hopefully it's good news

ditto

so sad to hear this, Colin was a gent, and a passionate investor, especially on Richland Resources. He will be missed by us all. RIP

it's always quiet here, come back in March

your idea is the best of all, a legally binding credit line for $100m , the CEO is probably correct in thinking Ferrexpo can sail through without loans and won't need it, but it is a huge debt burden to be paid over such a short timeline of 2017/8/9. A debt of this magnitude would ideally be spread over 7 to 10 years.

Ferrexpo has every base covered , next months report and investor presentation is going to be something else . The demand in the EU for pellets is up 10% on last year. Ferrexpo can just about cope with production . 25% of production is the super premium plus pellets , the maturity dates on the bonds are bottle necked in 2018/2019. I might be cheaper to issue a third $100m security blanket 2021 bond than reschedule but the CEO says 'No more borrowing '. I think he should take $100m , if trouble hits, he'll have 2020 as a free year to repay any overdue 2018-9 bonds .