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Ore at $83t in China today . Holy mo! Perfect time for the CFO to hedge - fantastic time to do deals for 12 months . I expect a refinance package to be announced .

Ferrexpo will return a 2016 EBITDA in the region of $400m and given how close we are to January it looks like the start of the year is going to be strong too, also Ferrexpo negotiates its premiums 6 months in advance on the main,, so that's locked down. another $400m year in 2017 would be optimistic but we enter this priced up rather than price down looking for an increase. H1 2017 will be strong, but H2 is anyone's guess.

Stonefish, absolutely delighted for you. 143p is the top price this year, great time of year to cash in too .

Natshap, you have three LSE posts to your name. All three are about Ferrexpo, and all three are negative. Clearly you are selling so I wish you best of luck. I suppose we will never see you posting here again?

Keeping an eye on this from the fringes for the moment. It's gradually finding its feet.

hi Levante, Jack88 is a poster who joined here , made 2 posts and vanished. In any regard, the CEO here apparently may have given a personal guarantee to the bank. and if that stands up, he is personally liable for some $58m US dollars. Given he owns 51% of this company, getting his hands on $50m won't be a strain. Of course by the time all this makes its way through courts, months and years can pass. I don't think this reflects on him, but it does impact on him and by extension the company

Vale stated in the week that they hope to be miming again by next June/July. And Vale and BHP have reached agreement of several matters and are meeting again in two weeks . And Vale's plan to use a former query nearby is now back in plan and has BHP new agreement . And a section of the mining ministry . So? This is unexpected progress , there are still lots of hoops to be jumped through. There is so many side angles here I suspect that any license grants will be challenged . This is not the main license to mine but just to use a quarry . That it itself has only a two year capacity .

This is used in steel making , not in Iron ore pellets. So it's not part of Ferrexpo's costs. However , when Coking coal is expensive steel mills turn to pellets because it helps reduce costs. It's a factor in the price of pellets for sure .

Nobody knows why he sold, maybe he has a better idea for his cash. Normal . He sold at 110p, its 135p today so clearly he sold too lowly .

I suggest you read back here, this company has mossed no debt repayments ,held $40m in cash in June2016, since then the company has made upwards of $30 a month net profit and currently $50m a month free cash flow.

They agreed a max of $750m last week, but I suspect they only need $250m unless they are going for more production . Better leave that FID until 2019 Q2 .

It's rising all the time. If this is re-financed - it will keep rising .

You know the rule- never gamble more than you can afford to lose .

Can't believe how quiet it has become .

It is the process they must go through to raise funds. They currently owe roughly $700m. I think it is likely they are clearing the way, but I can't see a $750m bond release. they could get through this without a bond issue, so really a $240m issue would more than give them comfort spreading it from 2020 to 2024 years. lots of options. I do think a bond issue will settle the minds of the doomsday ratings agencies.

Ukraine media is reporting that Ferrexpo is set to offer a bond placing to the market with a maturity term of up to 10 years and an interest rate of 11%. There is no confirmation that they have someone to buy these bonds but it is likely that they have it lined up in London. There is no guarantee that 'all' the bonds will be offered, and given the scale of it, it certainly made me blink. What is need is the rescheduling of existing bonds over 8 to 10 years, rather than a fresh $750m added to the current debt. Operationally, Ferrexpo does not need the $750m, and any ramp up in production to 16m tonnes annually would place additional strain at a time when the pricing is uncertain.

Can't tally the balance sheet here, neither can the guys in Google finance - grrrrrr

lets have a look……I'll comment in CAPITALS. THIS WAS WRITTEN WHEN IRON ORE WAS $55 A TONNE, IT IS NOW $75 A TONNE. BUT LETS READ THROUGH IT. MY COMMENTS IN CAPS. "The affirmation reflects the company's reliance on the favorable prevailing iron ore prices and pellet premiums to meet its debt maturities in the coming quarters. In our view, a drop in iron ore prices to $45 per tonne from the current price of about $55/tonne, IT IS NOT $55 A TONNE, IT'S NOW IN THE $70s. together with some softness in pellet premiums for two consecutive quarters, THE PREMIUMS ARE SET MOSTLY LONG TERM IN ADVANCE 6 MONTHS. NO SOFTNESS IN SIGHT, would result in Ferrexpo generating insufficient EBITDA to cover its interest expenses and quarterly debt maturities THAT WOULD REQUIRE THE PRICE OF ORE TO DROP FROM THE $70s TO $45t The company would therefore need to tap into its limited cash on the balance sheet. THE CASH IS INCREASING BY $40 A MONTH. . With favorable conditions in the third quarter, we expect the company to generate about $40-50 million of FOCF before facing maturities of $50 million. $40-50M IN Q3…. THAT'S NONSENSE. I MISPRINT I THINK. . "Under our base-case scenario, we project that Ferrexpo's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA will be $340-360 million in 2016, AGREED BUT I THINK HIGHER. falling to about $170-190 million in 2017. SEEMS VERY VERY LOW. The company is likely to outperform our expectations over the short term if prices, especially iron ore, remain at the current level. THEY INCREASED 30% "An iron ore price of $50/tonne for the rest of 2016 GOT THAT WRONG. and $45/tonne in 2017 LETS WAIT AND SEE. . prices, those could be under pressure if the Brazilian pellet producer Samarco resumes its operations in 2017. SAMARCO IS A LEGAL MESS. UNLIKELY TO OPEN IN 2017 . DYOR AND GLA….ALL MY OWN OPINION..GOOD LUCK ….

Ferrexpo's main competitor Samarco in Brazil is ear-marked for a mid summer re-opening. I can't see it happening , and here's why. The company that owns the mine is a stand alone legal entity owned by Vale and BHP. -Bill. The two giants feel morally obliged to pick up the tab for the disaster Last year but they are not legally obliged ( or so they think ) .in any case they have done a deal with the Brazilian govt. this means the two giants will cough up $$6Bill and the mine owner Samarco will cough up $2billion. Total $8billion . The mine can only make $800m a year so it's a pragmatic deal. The problem is it leaves very little on the bone . Firstly , we have several multi $billion lawsuits - I imagine there will be nothing done until these are dealt with. Then there is the licenses . That's another delay. Then there is the $2.2b bond holders and $1.4b bank loan . Unless these are slashed Vale and BHP will have no appetite here. You see I suspect the $6 billion will be a loan to Samarco !!!!! Meaning the BH could be in trouble. Unless serious money $8billion is on the table , the Brazilian Govt will seize the mine. BH get nil. Or the big two put in the $6billion as a 'loan'. Or series of loans. The BH and banks face wipeout or 10% value . A bone. Needless to say this wrangle with many players will Be protracted . We could also see Vale take a 100% share. Meanwhile Ferrexpo gets a clean run of profits .

Excellent bearish market assessment , but still calls $45 for year end 2017. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/iron-ores-trumped-up-gains-are-seen-at-risk-after-prices-doubled-20161111-gsnr8r.html