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10202t for 11 months. Presume 900t for Dec. 11,100 for the year . That's 1.5% behind target . Price of ore holding despite constant doomsday PR. Ferrexpo has two winning tickets looming 1: an announcement that they are going to pump production up to 16,000t a year with a new production unit . -$50m will begin this expansion , this could be announced in 2017 according to the PRO 2: refinancing - this should be Announced in early to mid 2017. I think $150m would be good but I suspect a big raise like $400m plus. The priority remains debt management . It's desperately short term .

my grandkids will be enjoying my investment at this rate, at least the legals are done and dusted… nearly rolled in 2017!!!! and as for the 9 month delay, not 6 months, this too is a little disappointing. perhaps, the prudent decision, but still disappointing. I though the SP would have dropped… Summer 2018 World Cup here I come.

your figures are correct. that's a little disappointing. Let's hope December is better.

Thanks for the link. there is something string about these figures, I think a recall an issue with this site before, I have check back the previous months and the figures are also very strange there too. clearly 881,000 would be a very poor result for November.

did you ever hear brokers talking about the fundamentals, 'the fundamentals'. Every stock brokers in the world has the member of staff that hasn't a clue what they are talking about, usually the young pretty ones, or daddy's boys. Once you hear the word 'fundamentals' you know they haven't a damn notion about the share. what are the fundamentals ? Gearing Ratios ? EBITDA ? ENTERPRISE values? Load of nonsense…. get to the chase, what are they making, what do they owe, and how much cash have they, and lastly are things getting better or worse here? where's the competitive threat coming from? watch as Miss Fundamentals legs it for the coffee and biscuits.

881,000 ton in November.?????? If this is true, and we have no reason to believe or disbelieve, this is behind expectations. Ingrid McMahon predicted only 12 weeks ago that Q3 would be 970,000 ton a month. she also said the plants were flat out. even when Ferrexpo was under plant repairs it can produce 925,000t monthly. I sincerely hope your information is wrong Maxim. as for your EBIDTA figure of $52.4m - that figure is possible, but hardly on you production figures of 881,000t for the month. maybe you can explain more. ?

we will ONLY have production figures for q4 in Jan. FY accounts not due until March. speaking of production figures, I am quite hopeful, I know the order book was full so no let up there, the weather has been quite mild in central europe this year, that helps at all stages, the overhaul of plant in q3 dipped figures, but that should help improve things in q4. I won't be surprised if production is slightly ahead of target….

MMs are unable to manipulate this.

Trackers, yes, but many average in slowly, and some already started adding a few weeks back knowing this was coming. But, it is definitely a help, a FTSE 100 listing would really light the fuse.

saw that, its an uncrossed trade . That's one of the recent buyers offloading for a profit I guess. They don't have to declare the sale to the market until they are finished selling so they have sold their lot. the SP did well considering the aggressive seller.

I would humbly suggest your figures may be too high. Here are my calculations 11 months EBITDA $342m 12 months EBITDA to dec 31st at $390m. ( a swing between $385m and $395m depending on unknown expenditure during upgrades in early autumn. My figures are still ahead of market analysts predictions who estimate between $340m and $360m. the best part of this is Ferrexpo will accumulate a tidy cash chest over H2 with a break from debt repayments. Market Conditions. The expected increase in Iron Ore production will cause pain, even is demand from steel mills remains firm, The chinese environmental policies favor the pellet using large mills, so that's a help, and coking coal is impossible to call past the next three months. Samarco will not be seen in production until late summer at the earliest and my own guess is 2018 is more likely, giving Ferrexpo breathing space. Outlook: Lets presume the price of ore hits $52t in Q2,3,4 2017, and let's presume that Q1 will be $62t. so, average $54.5 a ton for the year. that's very similar and in line with H1 of 2016 so i'm using and assuming the same pellet premium for that period in 2016 will be the same in 2017 of $29t. = $83.5 a ton in 2017. That will produce a EBITDA comfortably in excess of $160m per half year. Or $320m for FY 2017. but more likely close to $340m. Remember that's assuming or presuming that ore hits $54.5t on average. Samarco The meeting between VALE and BHP took place yesterday about Samarco…no news came from it. that's good news for Ferrexpo.

would you be so kind to explain how you come to this figure of $391m EBITDA,

Lemming, like me you watch this and comment often, you are holding some serious money and have done well. Just be careful mate, nothing wrong with Ferrexpo but this is mining and the risks are high. Would you not lock some profit in? Sell half to protect any downside ?

China steel doing fine so far, but Vale bringing on new ore in Jan.

When to sell ? For me it's after the annual figures get released in March , I'm hoping the iron market holds solid until then . The Chinese desire for high quality iron ore and pellets should become a fixture . They are becoming ' anti smog'. The best product for that is high fe pellets . So China is becoming a decent market rather than Ferrexpo'/s overflow. But shares rise and fall . 3 more months !!!!

Overhang shares. The shareholder didn't get his full placing away at 110p, so it's possible he will try to offload at these prices .the other option is he only wanted to sell 50% of his holding and is happy with the performance of the SP in recent weeks. I think if he does sell via private placing , the shock to the market will not be as sharp as before . He already indicated his attitude to the share , and the last time he proved himself a foolish seller when the SP rose 1.10p to 153 p within weeks. His sale spooked traders, sentiment has changed with the price of ore.

the price of ore has proven it can swing sharply, but lets prepare, this can and will swing against us too. For me, I will sit tight until mid march. that's my plan.

volcano, thanks for that correction regarding AIM, It is indeed the all share index, the entry into FTSE 250 will drag in ' tracker and basket funds that are obliged to have all FTSE 250 companies on their books. I think some add, before, when , and after, so we won't see a huge spike on Dec 19th, but overall, this promotion is good for that reason, and also Ferrexpo will get move coverage in the press etc.

Ferrexpo has already being promoted to the FTSE 250, as of two weeks ago, however the transfer takes place on Dec 19th. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/30/travis-perkins-polymetal-leave-ftse-100-reshuffle/

Ferrexpo to be admitted on Dec 19th. Goodbye AIM. Hello institutional investors .