Member Info for granto

I bought at 38p and hadn't moved a finger since, sold 40% of my holding today at 108p. I always had a price target of 100p. I'll monitor things moving forward. If it continues the rise i'll take it slice by slice. we do have some strange buying action here over the last few days with some serious money being paid over the odds, either an II or a hedge fund needing a mixer. Could be an insider but I doubt it. worth watching here.

Going on? Heavily indebted Iron ore miner and pellet maker enjoying the recent highs in iron prices reversing its fortunes. TBH 110p looks a about right so I don't see a huge upside from here. But hey who can say in the AIM market

There is little prospect of a takeover. The CEO owns 51% and its his life and passion, highly unlikely he would sell. even then, any buyer would have to understand iron ore and Ukraine - that's a rare mix. add on that most miners are in heavy debt and the prospect of more debt would not appeal to many. The reason the SP is rising is because the penny finally dropped that Ferrexpo is making serious money at the moment and this momentum has carried into the winter months. So it's not a takeover, BUT it could be a DEBT restructure announcement is coming, BUT i doubt that it would come so quickly, that would be more likely for next year sometime if at all.

One mega buyer yesterday took 7million shares on one swoop paying 2p over the ask . Most likely an II.

When to get in or out? Get out you pen paper and calculator . Moving into 2017 to 2019 work out potential profits then value the firm . Assuming it was debt free . What's it worth ? What the EV? Let's say it makes $180m . And it's worth 8 times that. = $1440m less debt plus interest . $900m = value of $550m but by Dec 2017 debt will be $500m , run the figures then . Closer to $800m value expected . So it's a call ? Your call

one of the changes in the pellet market over the last six months is that pellets are now paying EU level premiums in the late 20s. while prices and premiums have weakened a little they still remain strong for this time of year.

£6m in one trade, way above asking price….107p

june 30th 2016 . $45m cash in hand. ( $8m bank facility ) Dec 31st 2016. $45m less repayments than H!, Coupled with increased prices of pellets. Jan 1sr 2017 balance?

The report was excellent and way better than Moodys. There is one massive flaw in S & P report. It stated the q3 profits would be $50m. Surely they meant $50 a month , otherwise it could not tally with their end of year prediction of $350 EBITDA which was the exact figure I gave here last week when Moodys suggested just over $200m earnings. To be fair to S&P this report was decent. But wait. If they are correct, and FXPO does generate $360m EBITDA in 2016, and with the $240m of that coming in H2. where is the shortfall warning coming from for 2017? here is their thinking, lets presume the iron price drops to $45 a t, and lets presume pellets soften to $20 a t. That's $65 a t. and a EBITDA of $15 a ton, thats $15m a tonne profit monthly or $170m a year. so it does add up, if prices in ore drop and premiums soften too. I disagree slightly in that FXPO should carry well over $150m in cash entering Jan 2017. I'll try and get an exact figure for 2017 Jan later here as that $150m is a quick estimate based on current sales. This should ensure payments are met.

I think this is simple, the cost of coking coal continuers to hold its high price, forcing steel mills to buy pellets. add the winter and coal production slows a lot. so pellet prices looking high until March. When production fell in Q3 management here didn't even bother to explain what happened, that struck me as confident because they knew production had rebounded and said nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to hear directors are buying.

congrats to all holders and to the company. Tremendous recovery

The price of iron is made in China not USA . The Chinese premier is at war with pollution . Ferrexpo has the ' green' ingredient .http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N1CL03W

LTH sill suffering here….. always liked this , but good lord ….c'mon.

best of luck with it, that said there is an old saying 'if in doubt, take it out'.

q1 2887 q2 2836 q3 2604 q4 2923 company estimate,

its a risky share, careful there.

you are welcome. I always said this was worth £1 and now we are here.

Ingrid McMahon has issued an explanation as to why Q3 was slightly behind in its production. simply the company was undergoing refurbishments. She told journalists the she expected a ramp up from there in Q4/ she added that $50 will be invested in Capex in 2017 to advance new production streams. depending on iron prices.

Moody's analyst in London issued a report on Ferrexpo yesterday in which Moody's upgrades Ferrexpo . But the report is badly wrong . Moody's estimate that free cash flow this year will be $200m to $240m . That is nonsense . Ferrexpo had free cash flow of$140m in the first half . Since then things have rocketed , pellet prices have shot up from the $70s to the 90s and above $105 a tonne this last week Q3 cash flow had to be above $100m . And Oct looks like $50m . That's $290m already . Let's presume a disaster in Nov and Dec and pellets drop to $70 a tonne. That will still give this $20 X 2 and a FY free cash flow of $330m .... Moody's are way behind the game .

Pellets were changing hands this week for $105 a tonne. It's gone very high. Not since Jan 2015 have 65fe pellets traded for these prices. this is the reason why this is rocketing. Ferrexpo delivers pellets to your door for under $50 a tonne, and its costs are dropping. 9 out of 10 of the world's biggest steel mills are now ordering from Ferrexpo.