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with $180m annual to pay off the debt. By mid 2018 the company should have $360m free cash generated from todays date. This of course will be used to extinguished the debt. It will be tight. However, I would doubt the 2019 will be paid on time. However, come the hour Ferrexpo will probably owe $250m mid 2019. But generating $180m free cash flow. The Bondholders'Lenders will see sense and restructure. several options will be on the table, including a rights issues. Hey the company, would be worth close to $2billion debt free so, a rights issue could easily raise $150m for a 10% stake in the company if the **** hits the fan. in 2019 that is. Short terms loans. lots of options really. the CEO could sell 10% of his shares and underwrite a general share release with the cash…so I have no fear, but it will be a little messy. By 2010. this company will be debt free and making $300m a year and have a Mart Cap of $2billion.

let's presume that things get rough., iron or edits the floor and Ferrexpo, despite being a low cost producer finds itself not being able to pay back its debts in time, then what? Well lets apply the worse case senario of $38 a ton and say $15 premium. $53t. at this level, sustained, the company would collapse being barely above break-even and huge debt. Ok, lets apply more realistic bad times, $45t and $18 premium. Under this FERREXPO would make $150m EBITDA. so, in late 2018/19 they would still be face with debts close to $500m what then? It's a bondholder seize of the assets or restructure, usually it's a restructure or debt for equity swap. Private equity raise etc. My guess is ore will have an annual average of $51t and premium of $23t, total $74t over the next two years. giving us $300m EBITDA annually. roughly $180m after tax free CF.

the price rise in ore is the key reason for the rise here, but it is the price rise in the premium being paid for pellets that is booming this. In china the pellet premiums over regular ore has risen from $10 a ton to $30 a ton. Feb to Aug. the gap is widening. while Ferrexpo only sells 14% of its pellets in China. this strengthened market gives Ferrexpo a serious customer and leverage when negotiating with its Atlantic customers in the EU and elsewhere. Ferrexpo is pumping serious profits in this climate ( $45m a month EBITDA). The issue here is debt and how long can this price stay at these levels. world wide ramp up of competitors will increase supply, and a slowdown in demand in China will push prices lower. That's what people are saying. If it drops to say $40 and $20 for premiums. Ferrexpo will be making a poorly $120m a year EBITDA ). so take you interest and repayments out of that and they will be in deep water. Basically forced to restructure at the Bomdholders mercy. It could even face bankruptcy. BUT that really would require the price and premium to fall and stay down. For now it's $$$$$

er, that's six weeks without news? unless they are letting it settle down a little for a week to get an accurate reading.

Fair play Matt. I think the pellet market will prove more stable in both Asia and EU.

Pellet prices in china hit $92t today the highest in 12 months, the premium is the same as the euro zone 30p. It's another day and another dollar, as a bare minimum we are getting the same in the EU market and possibly up to 10 cents more.

I bought here because I thought the banking issue last year might be resolved and if it didn't the 38p price I took was already priced for non recovery of the money. After that I thought the company had decent assets.

jason schenher the top ranked metals forecaster was on Bloomberg saying that he thinks iron ore will be $60 in 2017 and $72 for 2018. He correctly predicted the rebound in Dec so he is well worth listening to. I don't have the link. google it , or on twitter. Morgan Stanley seems so far off the mark in their forecast. The need the market to implode overnight for them to get it right. I do agree with them that the winter price NDJ will be low, but not the $35 they call. My guess is late $40s at its worst, averaging $50. but the longer the current price holds, and we are now into week 7 of H2, better still the pellet price in CHina is at $90. that's a $30 premium on the standard ore.

Morgan Stankey have just stated Iron Ore will crash to an average of $45 a ton for July August sept , and $35 a ton Oct Nov Dec. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-16/iron-ore-seen-at-40-by-morgan-stanley-as-china-pullback-is-nigh . Wait a Minute ! We are half way through JAS and we are at $60.22 this morning . To reach their forecast iron ore will need to halve in value next week and stay there for 6 weeks .

Max, I know Ukraine intimately, and I agree with all you said.

Russia has no interest in the part of Ukraine where Ferrexpo operate . Russia supports the Russian speaking states seeking independence . We are away from these regions .the chance of ourr region being annexed is hugely unlikely as it would not have support locally .

delighted for you, it's a community here, none of us are experts, but we all have something to offer in terms of discussion. we don't always get it right. I had a stinker of a year, so if you followed me this year you would have lost money. mainly because I chase the adventurous stocks, miners and oil stocks. this has helped me recover. I also believed that Afren would recover, had it well researched, took a gamble on it, and it went belly-up. I scrambled out with half my investment which is more than many got, many lost 100% when it got suspended and delisted. I got suckered by central rand gold and the MOUs farces there, again lucky to lose only 66% of my cash in that, had I held, It would have lost 90%. same in Xtract. down 66%. same with ORM, and PTR. …Of course I had winners too but more losers. still, I bailed out of some serious losers in time…. so investing is an interest for me, a hobby if you like.

the price has held up. we should be still over $100 for ours

The greed had set in. People were asking about MMs, manipulation Ertc. This share has DMA , so you can bypass the MMs. This is the way with most shares . Automatic quote systems etc. if you see AT beside a buy or a sell - that's a trade booked bypassing the MMs. It makes things much more stable .

Seems something is wrong

for those glued here…don't blame you after yesterday. the pellet price in china remains the same today, standard ore dropped slightly. one swallow doesn't make a summer, and we need a solid year rather than a solid day. even so, if pellets are selling at $92t in China, where premiums tend to be 10% lower than in EU, we are getting at least $100t in europe today of Ferrexpo pellets. make hay

very interesting trade for £81,000 in shares at 81p…..the share price was 79p at the time….. that's when funny business takes place. trade not revealed until now. so when small time retail traders were panicking and selling, the big guys were secretly buying. above the asking price. bodes well I think.

REPLY IN CAPS I'm with you on this. I can find no explanation for todays staggering rise other than a lot of people are buying in to this as a real turnaround story. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS NEWS IN A SHARE THAT IS HARDLY HIGH PROFILE. THE PRICE RISE AS YOU KOW WAS LARGELY FUELED BY A RECORD PELLET PRICE PAID THAT DAY. THE BUYING AND SELLING ACTION WAS MATCHING EACH OTHER YESTERDAY. SO LOTS OF PEOPLE COMING AND GOING. Although we have had a recent broker target price of 117p I ALWAYS QUESTION THEIR SELF INTEREST WHEN REVEALING THEIR FORECASTS. I TEND ONLY TO GLANCE AT BROKERS TARGETS. - the rest are still incredibly low which suggests that a lot of people had either previously thought this company was a basket case or at the least thought there was too much risk still attached. LOW ORE PRICING, DEBT, AND THE LOST OF $175M IN A PIGGY BANK, ALL SERIOUSLY HURT THIS SHARE. THE REPAYING OF THE DEBT, THE PRICE INCREASE IN ORE, AS AIDED THIS SHARE. ALSO LOWER PRODUCTION COSTS AND A DECENT SET OF MID SUMMER ACCOUNTS. With the next debt payments looking very achievable and with $76 million to pay in the second half (as opposed to the $120 million we were up against in the first half of 2016) THAT'S SPOT ON SIR. - We now have the opportunity to up our amount of retained cash significantly YES INDEED , AND THIS CUSHION IS NEEDED. SOME HEADROOM. (and the current iron ore price will help greatly) AGAIN AGREED. - which should in turn give us some leverage to negotiate more favourable terms on any outstanding loans. IF NEEDED, I DOUBT WE WWILL GET MORE FAVORABLE TERMS OTHER THAN DATE EXTENSIONS AT A HIGHER INTEREST RATE. THIS WE WANT TO AVOID. BUT YES, HAVING THE FIRST LOAN OUT OF THE WAY FREES ASSETS TO RE-SCHEDULE THE LOANS AND BONDS. IF NEEDED. From the recent half year results it states that $158,150,000 of debt has to be paid off in the next year. Well we paid off $120,000,000 in the first 6 months of this year with a less favourable iron ore price so I'm backing us to continue to pay down debt. THAT'S CORRECT. FERREXPO'S DEBT LOOKS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE COMPARED TO 12 MONTHS AGO. Net debt was $753 million as of 30th June so one year from now it has to be down to at least $595 million. WE HAVE QUARTERLY PAYMENTS. On current form I'm betting its achievable and this company will prosper. AGREED….BUT OTHERS SPOTTED THIS TOO AND BAILED IN YESTERDAY Perfectly willing to be picked apart on this....appreciate any input tho. YOU SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPANY. AS GOOD AS ANY ANALYST - THEY TEND TO BE COLLEGE NIT-WITS THAT NEVER RAN A BUSINESS IN THEIR LIVES; I ALWAYS SAY ' EXAMINE THIS AS IF YOU ARE THE EDLEST SON/CAUGHTER OF YOUR FAMILY ENTRUSTED WITH THE FAMILY FORTUNE. RUN THE FIGURES AS IF YOU OWNED THE FIRM. THEN YOU WILL TRULY UNDERSTAND IT. WHEN THE CEO SAYS WE ARE DEALING INCREASINGLY WITH 'MARKET CRISIS RESISTANT CUSTOMERS' …HE MEANS WE ARE DEALING WITH A BETTER

interference with the price is highly unusual these days. The market is structured across several platforms and with DMA any MM trying to drop the price would be instantly caught short. On the BB here people like to blame them for fixing things for their own ends. they would never risk dropping a price like that. I can chat more about the security in the platforms if you like, but in basic language a market is a market. So, lets imagine a trader is selling washing power at a sunday market. and several other traders were also selling them. The price is 90p a box. No trader would would deliberately drop his price to 80p to play games. It is much the same here. If a MM dropped a price un-naturally the other MMs would simply buy them and laugh. Of course were all hear about stop loss traps, and all that. bottom line, its not impossible for a MM to trick the market, but its not easy and its not common. most times they simply protect their asses.

Yesterday ? God knows what sparked it other than ore prices hitting a high. The volume was huge. It happens like that sometimes , strong buyers arrive . Id be happy if we stay steady today .