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Everyone values differently . For the basic principals are the enterprise value less the debt. After that I add a few checks in. Let's go... This firm will make $300 based on a $55 ore price . So given its difficult operating environment I apply a 6 times earnings ratio. So $1,800m less the debt of $750m plus mud debt life interest of $100m , leaving a cool $950m value . Add the balance of current assets and liabilities and it's $1billion . No heavy Capex required . Trade improving . Clients improving . So, I value this company at $1billion . As long as it is safely under this valuation this remains a buy.. For me 90p is a sell price . Anyone else care to explain their thinking here ?

I'm no expert, and like us all I mess up from time to time. I lost a small fortune my first year investing in shares. I made it back, but it took 5 years. so yep caution all the way.

Firstly, never borrow to invest. Secondly, the golden rule is average in and average out, ( buy in and out in several chunks often weeks apart ). average up ( adding while the sure rises. and never average down ( that's buying more shares when the price drops ), as for here? It still remains a high risk share. If we have cheap ore this winter it could really hurt us. and it is hard to predict. IF tomorrow has the same Buy V Sell action we should have avery sweet day…..someone filled a £85,000 order at the close…..looks like sellers were hard to find at the price he wanted ( 60p ) and the order took time. here's hoping the order was not fully filled and there is more to follow.

Ok I was right, see the last trade of the day, its a UT trade, bodes well for tomorrow. Brokers sometimes use a UT to hide the fact a share is in hot demand, revealing it only after the market is closed.

The SP here will be determined by the price of Iron ore mostly. But lets assume the price of ore remains where it is for three years. This would allow this firm to pay its debts. and still be making $300m a year. Valuing the company at say $1,800b .This is its max under current ore prices. But few believe ore prices can remain this high. so hence the perceived lower price. So, does this still represent good value at these levels ? yes, but buying in small and slowly would be my suggestion. GLA

why it didn't rocket today? All too often the market makers get the blame. The truth is they rarely interfere in that way, These shares are sold over several platforms making interference very difficult for MM who could get caught. Now back to today…. Today we saw the SP stay at 59p all day despite serious pressure on the price. why? It looks like we had a seller of shares who was holding large volumes and was happy to off load all day at his desired price of 59p. He could have held off and sold slowly and allowed the price to rise. Buy hey if you have a lot to move and you are happy, keep selling is the idea. I think this happened today. Sometimes we can have a sell order being filled and not declared to the market. they are not obliged to declare it until fully filled. and will do so usually at the end of the day. so you can go to the trades of recently sold shares at 5pm and see.

Hi Tomglan, delighted to explain, as once I had the same query myself. The Share Price we see quoted is always a mid price between two prices, the bid and the ask, you can see them on this page, so we always have someone wanting to sell at a price if they can get it, so here now it's 59.50 ….. and we always have someone trying to buy ( if they can get a cheaper price here it is 59.25. eventually someone makes a move up or down, takes the asking price, or accepts the Bid price, and that is what forces the price up and down, assuming enough shares are bought or sold to influence the movement. Now, look above to FXPO Share Price on this page and click it. It will open in a different window, and scroll down. Here you will see the Volume bought and sold for the day. Vol Sales and Vol buys. So today it is 120,000 shares sold, and 1,200,000 bought. in 251 deals. This means that during the day 251 transactions were done. each time someone either accepted the lower price offered ( sell ) or took the higher price ( buy ). So, when we have more people trying to buy or willing to take the higher price this causes the price to rise. edge upwards … If the volume of buyers, beats the volume of sellers by 10 to 1, the price often rockets. It should. it's a market after all. the difference between the two prices is called 'the spread'. see above. Traders like small spreads. so that's how it works…if you want some more on this just ask.

I don't comment much on buys Vs sells, but today this is really amazing. the buys are outgunning the sells by 10 to 1. Normally this level of buying would drive the SP up quite a bit. But we are only up 1% today. There was a 'sea of blue there for a while and chunky buys too. so we clearly have a 59p off loader. It will be interesting to see what happens.

not ideal, but I'm happy with that.

Buys Vs Sells !!!! yet the SP remains the same. wonder if the price will hold under 60p.

I find this link useful for tracking pellet prices. Has anyone a better suggestion. really worth a look. http://219.238.233.84/uec/priceIndex.do?method=toIndexOre_zonghe_en Try Platts for EU prices, but they charge for the information.

If today's ore price stayed the same for the next 12 months, the EBTIDA would be �570m a year. BUT, that's a big IFFFFFF. I think ore prices are sky high and will probably fall.

just about 5% short of a mil a month

In the first half of this year the 65fe pellet premium in China in imported pellets was $11, and that rose to $22 in June. It has been at $28 for the past week in China. The premium in Europe has averaged $12.50 this year over what's paid in China. $17.50 Vs $31. Now China is at $28.50 Vs what in EU ? and this needs to be added to the basic iron ore price $60 this morning. Lets assume the premium in EU is only $10 more, it's $38.50 plus $60. we could be just shy of $100 a ton. Remember our costs are only $50a ton total. A clear operating profit of $50 a ton.

It's a long term investment . I'll sell when we pay the debt back . Assuming we are still making 300nm a year , it's a 3x bagger over 3 years. Rages my thinking

Ferrexpo won its court case to have $9m given to it due to the collapse of the F-C bank. This was appealed with the case due in May - never heard a word - the news is Ferrexpo won the case in Kyiv appeals court - but the compensation commission have ' appealed the appeal ' . So, looks very likely the $9m will be released to Ferrexpo soon . I bet this is where the CFO got his $9m loan from ? I wonder if that was drawn down yet ?

Serious dough .

my initial view is this is an excellent set of results and a comprehensive report that will help investors understand the business better. It is in line with our predictions here, and no doubt more experienced analysts too. A few positives not highlighted too brightly ( but in there ) are 1, the large increase of sales to Western Europe where premiums are at their highest. 2, The Atlantic premium is very strong at $30t to $31t. ( Ferrevpo tends to shy away from revealing to much about this perhaps for commercial sensitivity reasons) but it is a massive positive delicately hidden. 3, no mention o fabulous new offices in London or f the $800,000 spent of decorating them - no surprise in that ). 4, the VAT return of withheld cash was slipped in without fanfare - small ticket item i think not. 5, the North asia market increase in sales - and less reliance in China is another positive. All told this is a solid company, making strong profits, aggressively paying its debt off at breakneck speed, really these eurobonds should be finance over 6 to 8 years instead 3years.

nice estimates. we do know the debt is $127m exactly. I hope you are right with the $85t price. seems high , but hey …who can say 100% what's what

Platts:: for July assessed Atlantic BF estimated provisional contract premiums at $30.50/dmt, and DR premiums at $41.50/dmt. Some latest BF pellet offers, were given in early July as moving up to the mid $30s/dmt level, according to a mill buyer involved in sourcing a range of pellet origins among other grades.