RE: Solid base?6 May 2016 17:59
Matt
this is a $3billion company if it were in a debt free position. or $2billion on a bad day. So why is the market Cap at £200m or $300m? the answer is simple, as you know the debt is massive here and the terms are short, all under 4 years. Despite this monster making a cool $250m to $300m a year operating, this debt with very high interest rates, is touch and go regarding meeting repayments. Fag Box in the pub? lets assume $250m refit, take away $80 interest each year albeit reducing so that $170m to play with, But these loans average $225m per year,,,so we have a shortfall…. Bondholders are Bas…..ards,,,, but its unlikely they would topple the company over a $50m shortfall. So it's possible dilution and restructured loans,,,ouch. But, some like me, believe this will pull through, and the bondholders will deal. In six short years this company could easily be debt free and making $250 to $300m a year at $50 a tonne. So Matt its a gamble, the company has a chance of bankruptcy too. I would guess there is a 10 to 20% chance of that. Or at least the Bondholders take 40% of it in exchange for more funds…. up to you