Member Info for granto

Ah you beat me to it ..... You put the lonk in first here .

Here is something from WSJ.com that might interest you: Mining company strives to spark dazzling demand for gemstones http://www.wsj.com/articles/mining-company-strives-to-spark-dazzling-demand-for-gemstones-1453285803

I'd like to see the share un-suspended. screw it …i'd have salvage prices for my shares.

Interesting that RS is somewhat upbeat and discussing appeals with lawyers etc. As far as I know, and have read, there is no appeal on the decision and only the size of the award can be appealed. sadly, I place little hope in all that. whatever little money is left will be used for directors salaries etc, ordinary shareholders will not see a cent. as for Vlad, it is disappointing he vanished, but not a surprise, he always kept well back, perhaps he feels a little guilty in that many hear bought partly on foot of his information and strong belief. to that I would say to Vlad, not your fault mate, everyone knew the risks and took their chance. he should post again. if only to give himself and others closure.

it is looking verity bleak here. it could be argued that this is already built into the desperate share price. for my unlearned eye I fear this is on the verge of complete collapse. I sold out in late 2014, didn't have huge amounts in here, more by fluke than wisdom. Normally if I was here I'd stubbornly hold on, but reading those RNSs. It seems like the banks are providing liquidity to keep the ship afloat - this is often to allow a civilized examination by the bondholders and banks…..perhaps the bondholders will offer more cash in exchange for shares. But if that happened the dilution could be 50% to 90% of the current company valued transferred to them in new shares…..sorry to all long tremors, hope this turns for you. but good lord. I'd take a life boat myself and wish those behind me well.

I did a valuation before peeking at the Mart Cap. I totted up a £50m valuation, so at £46m I wasn't far off. good profit margins still, but for how long. an aggressive debt reduction required here in the comping years, this will be about the printing division and some digital, and continued cost cutting. It's all about managing the downturn

best wishes.

my understanding is that the $25m drawdown injection is to form part of the mine building and Ormonde's and Oaktree's annual $1,000,000 annual expenses being taken from this, and subsequent funds. The remaining funds may not necessarily have tone drawn down, and if a ' this is not bankable" flag is raised by Oaktree the lenders will be happy to be excused from 'execution' no pun intended. I think I recall this $25m being of buying the 70% share of the asset but it's to be used a project finance. so, Ormonde can continue to draw salaries from it pending thenext drawdown. it's a case of wait and see. I expect they will continue with the messy local purchases and red tape, and push on with preparation reports etc. come the end of summer a call will have to be made. If the sums don't stack, a postponement will have to happen. Under such a scenario will Oaktree be happy to allow the Ormonde lads keep drawing salaries from the $25m pot. I doubt it, unless a claw- back is signed. it's an amber light here, the question is what will happen? the answer is 'anything'.

on the supply - demand equation things have never been more volatile. While demand can be somewhat predictable , the entire supply aspect is a new beast. The arrival of shale is only half the story. The 3D seismic profiling has made discoveries much easier and assured. all of a sudden we have , a billion barrels here, and billion there.also factor in the drilling has improved too, with Horizontal sidetracks increasing production on new an old wells, and chemical additions, and even advanced electrical pumping. Bottom line is we are discovering more and more oil, and we are extracting it like never before, and yes add in Shale, add in Iran, and then consider Syria and Libya when then settle down. it all points to more and more oil on the market. So, where to invest ? Low cost producers with quality assets and very limited debt. Debt is the death of the modern day Oil company. companies that that own the refineries have added strength. I think we will have lots of casualties , I expect this will be one.

I'm surprised this has not hit the floor today, only down 30%. only for the very brave.

lots to answer there. My understanding is Ormonde are adequately financed to see them through the building of the mine process. you are assuming that only Oaktree don't want to proceed with building the mine. But, what if both Ormonde and Oaktree equally agree and both sides are against building the mine? I think Ormonde would be more willing to proceed and force Oaktree to proceed, hoping for a rise in the price of Tungsten. One scenario is that Oaktree make the 'this is unviable' case. and offer to pay Ormonde's management salaries and expenses while both sides await a rise in the price of Tungsten. this could be $1,000,000 a year for the next 2 to 3 years, and review the project in 2018. This would make sense for Oaktree with only $2-3M at risk. and it makes sense to Ormonde management as they continue to get their salaries paid with zero risk and not performance related. Because if the project did push ahead it would have questionable economics and the company could collapse. As for shareholders, we would have our asset protected for 2-3 years. Of Tungsten prices return, then the original plan kicks into action at that time. so, I do not see your surrender of the asset from Oaktree to Ormonde taking place. But it's possible. It is also possible that the project will simply press ahead and Oaktree and Ormonde are happy to proceed at current ore prices and that will be that.

I think Bernard's commitment to the company is beyond question. I'm sure he'll buy more in time. not sn issue with long term investors here.

worth bearing in mind that low oil prices help miners in terms of mining costs, miner use lots of diesel, and of course it reduces transport costs as well. but this may only factor in $10 per metric tonne. a help but peanuts compared to the fall in Tungsten's price. another help is Tung is sold in dollars and we will be mining in the Euro zone. again it's a help but not a game changer. Can we be profitable at these levels, when the cost of transport is included ? I really can't answer that. However, a bit like the oilies, whoever has the Capex invested years ago and their plants built are at a huge advantage. perhaps the closing mines will reduce supply, and assist the price. I wonder will Oaktree and Ormonde announce a suspension of the project pending a review of the project. we could become a dormant company sitting on a huge but worthless asset until prices change.

the SP would be enough to convince many here that the mine may not go ahead. However the current $175 Per Metric tonne Rotterdam price is still above our $115 PMT mining cost. not exactly a comfortable margin but a margin all the same. Prices are lifting a little in Jan and forecasts are for a lift in prices over the next 2 years, ( heard that before ).

The SP will lift a little ..... With any luck the price will rise

Sadly metal prices have hit the floor just as we finally get our act together or rather the Spanish did. It's a mix of debt and project finance so not a free carry ! Once it's announced that we are 100% going ahead and the figures still add up and point towards profit .

Well done Pops..

It would cost about $1.6billion, to build a mine to produce 10mt per annum. But to have one close to Central Europe is the key here. it is a pity the debt is so high, and the loss of the Ukraine cash came at a desperate time.

this company is an interesting investment discussion. Let's take the negative first. it has crippling debt of around $800m and some of its bond coupons are paying 10% interest. The money lost in the bank in Ukraine, it is 99% finished if not gone already…..so the good news? The good news is this company has transformed its operations over the last year. in 2014 50% of its production was with the standard fe 62% pellets. Now it is producing 65.5% pellets and that is now 95% of all production. as per the RNS. So what ? the so what is Fe 65% pellets are a far superior product and command much higher prices, and are bought but more quality conscious customers. this will boost profits massively. meanwhile costs are hedged against the lower UKraine currency, strong dollar for selling , and lower fuel prices for both production and transport. Transport is a high factor in costs here. The LOM is now 40 years. The company owns its own rail cars too. maybe 2000 of them I think. the plant operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. iron prices for fe 62% are around $42 a MT, but Fe 65% is a lot higher than that, I already predicted Profits before bank repayments etc of around $200m for 2016. most of that will be needed to squeeze the $800m debt. ….in my humble opinion, this is a good long term play, roll on 3 years and debt is down to $500 and the company continues to make $200m a year with $150m in the bank…..nicely placed.

I few pages back here I predicted a 4% increase in production. The firm has done 5.5% . that's an excellent report.