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It is all about the Interim results due tomorrow. for amusement i'll predict a few things. 1- unlike previous years I think they will break the production figures to highlight the 'record' production figures for the premium 65fe pellets. this is to hide the fact that total production is less than last years. 2- Sales volumes will be record breaking we have been told. This is a tonnage record and not a Revenue record. Big difference. But a record non-the-less. 3- a mention of strong cash flows. as per the last RNS. 4- some detail on our new lower cost base… also a record, but I doubt he'll refer to it as such. 5. I bet EBITDA will be $150m. as per my $25m a month profit benchmark I use here. 6. a reference to debt reduction, and balance sheet improvements . because of the debt pay down, the bottom line will be weak looking. Cash marginally increased. the market should like it. anyone else have a prediction. ??

Paying of the $420m export finance loan is key point. The other loans could not be restructured while it was outstanding . That said I think the current remaining bond holders won't reschedule unless they are forced to concede it . So it's down to performance. The current ore price is sweet for Ferrexpo . Looks like the storm is behind it. In 2019 this could be debt free and producing $300m a year profit . Put a Market Cap value on that. No doubt a few storms along the way .

I have calculated the actual cost per ton is $50t here. The company clouds these figures , for commercially sensitive reasons I gather. Likewise the Atlantic pellet premium is never fully explained. But from the chart below we know that China is paying $86 for 65o Pellets on Aug 1st. Lets assume the EU is even $5 ,ore. Is that fair ? could we say $91t. If so, and the $50t is accurate. with lower production costs I think it is. C! is $24t. so I'm allowing $26 extra for full cost of delivery. WE could be selling for a cool $41 a t profit this week. We produce 1m tons a month. A clear $41m profit. Not quite but close enough. maybe $36m. That's based on todays sky high figures. Over the year I estimate we should average £25m a month net profit. But this boon could not have arrived at a better time. This explains the recent surge in the price here.

I find this link useful for tracking pellet prices. Has anyone a better suggestion. really worth a look. http://219.238.233.84/uec/priceIndex.do?method=toIndexOre_zonghe_en

I'm looking forward to the report. Sales up, Production at record levels ( of premium pellets only - not if the fe62 pellets are included ). Yet, this is pointing towards a strong turnaround.

Ferrexpi paid back $127m so far this year. As of Dec 31st dec 2015 they owed $868m net debt. So this figure now stands at $741m . It should have a good $40m in cash , the next 4 months to November are repayment free, and this grace period 'breather' should add another $25m a month to the coffers. So come Nov 2016 they should have $115 m to$140m in cash and pay the first Eurobond . With $300m operating net profits - looking very very good

Last year it was reported that Ferrexpi was struggling to restructure its debt due to this $420m July 2016 debt. Now this has been paid, it frees up bond holders to restructure . But, As long as iron stays above $50 they should need no restructure . The positive comments in the RNS about record sales will add strength to this $17.5m a month for the last 24 months hurt . The next few months will give them an extra $60m FCF. To build deposit safety . They need €43m in Nov - so that will be made. By nov 2017 another $170m could be paid back . Be easy to restructure that

You were!

The CFO must be relieved to have that $420m debt off his back. Solid batting to do it without bridging finance . Would have been understandable if he took refinancing to honour this . Did well not to default .

Matt, it's been a while since I tracked the debt here. Yet, this is a debt play I know. The reason was I was finding it hard to track the reschedules , Iknow theCFO stated in an interview with analysts that payments are within our control . Since then things have been pretty good . So ? . The debt needs to be spread more evenly out over several years . But there's no appetite for that at the mo . So the CFO is just going through the regular process of aggressive pay down. Once it's down to an acceptable level - we can negotiate new deals .

Great question . If Russia stop the gas people will freeze in their homes . It's unlikely . I gather Ferrexpo use Oil mostly ? Even if it's rationed industry usually gets priority . Must look into it more .

Pricing not pricking !!

The best month this year was July, so it's a pity to miss out on those figures . Profits will be held by reducing costs on last year, but pricking also reduced . I have a feeling the figures , that is net profit and cash flow could be similar to last year . Helped by smaller Capex too . The real cost of production is now late $40s I estimate . So my guess, and it's a guess , I ran no figures yet, is a cool $25 to €30 a ton profit . So €160m Before deductions . All swallowed by debt repayments . This time next year , provided the winter doesn't bury us - this will be looking very good indeed .

£500,000 on office decorating! We need every dollar we have. I'd rather this was done 24 months from now. As for the interim results. It's pretty predicable - so hopefully no surprises .

The CEO is so embarrassed about losing $175,000,000 in his own bank, he has decided to punish himself by really pulling the purse strings on his office furniture and fittings. http://www.collins-construction.com/news/work-begins-at-ferrexpo/ dream on.

Ferrexpo should have its interim report out next Monday. But, todays rise is all to do with Ore prices. In China today 65fe pellets are selling at $85t imported. . Ferrexpo will be getting more for its atlantic pellets. The breathing space it desperately needed is here. This price boon, if it holds should give these guys an extra $8m a month Net profit. The issue is….the winter is coming.

that last well hardly warranted an RNS. better to have added it to the Sibk result next month.

Holding here since last year, quality projects, but one for the long term

agree totally with the big operators comment at the end of your post.

Here is a really useful link for gauging the price of iron ore pellets at the 65% grade. It is up to date, most are not. BUT, it is China for import sea bound ore. really worth a look. http://219.238.233.84/uec/priceIndex.do?method=toIndexOre_zonghe_en