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My opinions. This is being intentionally held here for the purpose of a takeover at a value that appeals to enough investors as to get a yes vote, ive seen some rather well timed offloading keeping this one below its lipstick and smart dress trigger point and a lack of any promotion on some important events. VSI will say yes if they get the manufacturing rights, the new money will say yes if they make a decent multiple of the placing price of 5p. This has been the intended outcome for a while and based on the fact that its all about to kick off in DMS and smarteye are working off wallpaper tables we are clearly the leader and very attractive but we have made ourselves unattractive to many due to our diversity. SEE want specific parents that suit the existing company culture (easy going BBQ, beer on the lawn on friday's) so pay attention to any existing relationships or comments you have got about "we are working well with them" relationships are far more important that size........Always talking to diverse T1/T2 is echoing about the trees. So where does it leave nelly? She is muttering patience by Gary Barlow each day as we walk in the jungle and telling me it will be ok whist we plan our next AIM adventure, but she will always remember that phrase "you have to trust us" because now is the time you will forever be judged on that comment and elephants never forget. Anyone out there who is close to anyone in the financial world might want to do some drinking with them and ask them in the toilet "whats going on" im sure by now the ball is rolling, isnt that the way it works anyway?
Split it up it’s worth far more than as a while but that won’t happen despite being suggested previously and just keep a research team in Canberra. The cat deal appears to have caused some issues in that area
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A8, in order to meet the requirements of many OEMs SEE need to have cash to be able to fund the 20+ engineers required for each OEM, i know this from someone who works in Auto as its the norm. We needed that money to win BMW IMHO. We raised the cash using lots of news including Merc Emirates etc which some were aware of last year hence the Sausages and some were aware of BMW hence the second serving of Sausages via Gillingham (well done lewbo) all my notes do point to a takeover but not at a silly level maybe 17-25p area. There is no doubt that VSI were keen to support the placing (including associates) and that a lot of the new money was with cenkos at 5p mostly to 2 large investors who no doubt will be close to Cenkos (see cenkos name on RNS located in Edinburgh) why didnt the old money buy more in the placing, maybe they can see this is worth more. A rise to a silly level is the last thing anyone wants now so this IMHO has been held back to a level where the price might meet the required multiple of those who hold decent volumes. Any unexplained rise now would require a statement just like the BMW one which i think said we havent done the deal but IMHO we have. We are poised to become the worlds leading supplier of DMS and everyone seems to know that however we seem to be quiet at the moment news wise. Limiting investment to EU only keeps out people like intel perhaps who i understand really like SEE and could have been there at the Fovio spin off, we have evidence of SEE not wanting to be dominated by anyone, ken does it his way. We IMO are fighting off a takeover from anyone that wants to change the plan including what we do with Xilinx and i think we have done this before (hence why HH bought all those shares) Why did SEE not do anything about those HH shares and why did i find out that little was being done to place them with anyone, what is the purpose of Odey buying 5% then going to 4.99%. VSI would IMHO block any deal that didnt reward them, losing manufacturing rights requires a bit premium, retaining them does not. This is about staff and stakeholders not small PI like us, oddly i was conducting some shareholder research and found out that SEE might be surprised how many some PI do hold but not enough to stop anything. Fleet launch has always had issues changing their minds, so this screams out to me this needs to be sold to a diverse organisation that can assist the BOD, Ken is a nice fellow i assume and might as you say be doing his best for shareholders but keep on open mind on things whatever you hear, ken is ruthless if challenged, it was last year i recall that you mentioned that you had spoken to ken and he said all was well with the takeover of HH, in a few months they ditched all but 6m shares. Mike didnt fit in maybe it was him that was keen on promoting this to the world and not considering staff and stakeholders, however Mike is still keen to follow SEE so i assume he has an interest in them still? I am waiting and holding
I would rather she told us why we cannot find all those shares listed anywhere that went in the placing, why manufacturing was delayed, and exactly why Cenkos were appointed recently, alternatively we can work on a theory (we have one) and present it to the jury to ponder. We can trump you know and its far louder than a squawk. Apologies i didnt finish my sentence the other day i was counting up the number of things that have not been communicated here and ran out of fingers. I was also reading in detail the history running up to the Stadium Group TT electronics RNS including a CEO sale about the time talks commenced which did the trick in halting any rise, almost reads like Stadium wanted TT to buy them and wanted to keep it dull. My opinions of course
Remember it was cenkos who got the money and think about the elephant in the room. More to come on that I guess but it w
The elephant in the room.....as each day passes and SEE seem to be keen to hold back news on BMW and Subaru and conveniently delay guardian 2, Nelly wonders if the plan is to let this go to someone at a reasonable price on the quiet who allows VSI to maintain its rights to manufacturing, maintains the plan and those 300m missing shares are safely with someone who will vote yes along with other parties introduced by cenkos recently and itts approved. I said to nelly surely they wouldn’t do that would they? she looked at me flapping her ears and said “I hope not GB you know this is worth a lot more than some are letting on but maintaining the family and having a supportive easygoing parent is very attractive to some and this silence, lack of a new CEO and current low price smells a bit sushi don’t you think? let’s see what happens next, they have plenty of cash so what are cenkos for, are they doing an Incadia or will see go it alone for a bit and strut their stuff and go for the dividend 2025 or the 50p+, currently they seem to be sat in a corner in the dark not wanting to be seen. Nelly then winked at me let out a loud fart and danced back into the jungle muttering sausages, sushi, strategic value, diverse t1’/t2’s as abba’s winner takes it all echoed in the coconut trees.
EPS about 3p debt reducing, outlook good target 24p - 35p 12-24 months. Very Impressed indeed has to re-rate in 2018 surely?
Worth keeping an eye on developments here. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/niger-delta-avengers-say-they-will-attack-nigeria-s-oil-sector-within-days-9869814
They also have about $18m of cash taken that could not be recognised as revenue in the last set of figures as the 500k odd barrels had not been discharged to an offtake vessel, therefore the title had not transferred to the buyer and wasnt recognised as revenue.
It appears now that the liars at Hunter Hall have finally gone and their holding has been moved to another II at 17p. This might be a good time to take a position here.
at first glance yes but debt has gone up �50m to �308m. So i suggest that with a market cap of �82m they should ditch the dividend and pay the debt off slowly or ramp the company and then do a placing for �308m and clear it. I am unsure how the market will react in the coming days. Lots of potential and worth more but the market decides.
I work on what its going to be worth in 12-24 months myself as opposed to what its worth now and seek the opinions of those who are in touch with the company like brokers which i have access to. I also calculate my own figures based on $52, however $55-60 seems more likely going forward. Consensus estimates from 4 brokers for ELA 2017 is $35m 2018 $125m Consensus estimates from 3 brokers for Lek 2017 is $25m 2018 $42m 5200bopd at netback of $30 gives around a net profit of �21m according to my calculations allowing for costs and then there is the additional production starting October. So i have this on a discounted PE of 6-7 giving approximately 65-88p on current production as it stands, back of fag packet stuff. The brokers have factored in the additional production for 8000bopd so i would anticipate this being nearer the broker figures 120p in 6-12 months. In the end it will be all down to events and charts also. They said this.... During our shipping operations, total production volumes of 515,223 barrels were delivered to the FPSO.�However, as the barrels had not been discharged to an offtake vessel, the title had not transferred to the crude buyer and therefore we have not recognised this in revenue.� The difference has now been recognised as revenue post Period end and will be shown in the Full Year 2017 accounts following delivery to the offtake vessel in H2 2017. Therefore as mentioned H2 will be significantly better along with FY17
if you read the rns and broker report you would have seen the mention about a large sum of money not being recognized as revenue in H1 despite it being sold in H1. This makes H2 and FY 17 exceptional when you add in the 5200bopd with net of $30-34pb. This is worth over 80p even considering a 30% risk discount on the pricing. Also have a google about militants becoming protectors of the pipeline.
Not sure, the ruble is rising and this is offsetting gains they make on Gold to an extent. HGM results confirmed this recently. The issue here is the broker CFEP is poor and has based the projections on the ruble 12 months ago. Costs are therefore now higher, its a plod along 35p to 50p with a divvy in November of 6-10% type of thing. I see no evidence that they have done anything to engage with investors as they mentioned 2 months ago. 85% of shares are in the hands of the BOD and their Investment company. It seems to be a nice little earner for them. Ive done well out of it but its not a hold and keep share.
The Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators are holding this back with their talk about action on the 10th September so i cannot see it rising to 60p this week. Might have to wait a few weeks.
consensus FEPS is now 4.2p and debt is high some 2x cap so reasonable value on this would be about 25-30p IMO. The low rating is due to the debt the coal price and the fact that one director owns a large chunk, maybe he owns too much. Might have a flutter at 25p ish but i dont expect much excitement for 12 months.
Patience always wins in the end. 8100 bopd with netback of $30.3pb. So around $80m pa. Comfortably undervalued
Forcados has mechanical issues apparently and hasnt been online for a few days, maybe that?
17500 bopd Q2 $50pb oil pipeline netback to ELA $30.3pb 20.25% ownership of production (its 45% until loan repaid back to them) gives them $107k a day or $39m pa Resistance maybe at 70p with top slicing from placing at 35p possible and again near £1 also due to reasons below 130pish seems realistic next 1-2 years and with anticipated increases in production and a relatively calmer situation but even if they revert back to shipping at $24.6 on 17.5k its still $87k a day or $31m pa again giving about £1. £1 to £130p cash offer accepted.