focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Nick of time Mr O, so this is a company generating $6m in profit and paying out most of that as a dividend with no real signs of increased production unless there are plans ahead. The mine has 10 years left in it. The business has stated that it will increase efforts to raise it awareness but starting with prompt reporting and actually giving a s*** about PI might help your cause. Hardly the most exciting share to own but it makes money. How can you have a GM and have to adjourn it about some figures but those were available months ago. Wealthy directors with too much money it seems. Cantor Fitzgerald now go on my list of useless brokers who dont have a clue whats going on We emphasise our commitment to deliver returns for shareholders. We are confident that we have an attractive investment case and are re-doubling our efforts to communicate with the investment community. As a low-yield investment environment persists, we believe that the Company's commitment to an attractive and stable dividend pay-out policy should increase interest in the Company's shares and the Company more widely. So what are you doing Charles E Ryan, i suggest you ditch the broker first.
Are late Simon Olsen. you have 2 days. On paper this looks great but the lack of effort to promote your company is poor.
Following completion of the successful placing we reinstate coverage of Eland with a Buy recommendation and a revised 120p per share Target Price (from 130p). The FY16 results revealed the near term working capital challenges the company faced, albeit that many are of a technical nature. Completion of the placing ensures the planned work programme can be kept on track. We expect that to see production hit 17.5kbd gross around the end of 3Q17 and around 25kbd by the end of the year. Delivery of this step change in production should both transform Eland’s financial position as well drive a sharp reduction in the discount to our target price as confidence in the investment thesis builds.
380m was the loan made by Westport a jersey based company 100% owned by ELA that has first rights to the cashflow from the wells until the debt plus 12% interest (from memory) is paid off hence why ELA are getting 45% initially of all production, after that they share the 45% with starcrest a JP in elcrest and then get 20.25% after debt is paid off. Eland are set to make a big loss this year (well elcrest will so shared with starcrest) but big gains down the line so you have to work out do you look back or forward. If results come out and they are poor as expected then perhaps people will sell and i shall buy more.
I honestly wouldnt rely on anyone other than yourself to explain the RNS or take any notice of anyone who posts anything on a BB or who gives a tip or an opinion unless they happen to be Buddha but even he will say do not believe him unless you can prove it yourself. Ive compiled a summary of the events and will post it this weekend if i can get away from the temple but believe non of it unless it matches your own findings. https://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/london/first-crude-oil-exports-since-october-leave-nigerias-26746547
Very decent volume indeed, a dip by around 3% to 60-61p would seem logical irrespective of oil prices, at 60-61p i anticipate an RNS re forcados and we move to 70p. Plenty of logic buying at 62-63p if you need to buy in volumes and just want to get in but might be a chance to chip away at smaller 10-20k buys a touch below this. opinions of course
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/05/30/shell-commences-skeletal-loading-of-crude-oil-from-trans-forcados-pipeline/ So Forcados is officially still closed according to Shell but they are happily shipping oil out of it and more tankers are on the way and Eland have resumed pre existing arrangements. As with most things, you get told what they want you to hear, when it suits them.
and they did it without mentioning the banned words "Forcados Pipeline & Open"..........seems they have been holding off production increases for the pipe......my guess is an RNS within the next 2-4 weeks confirming production rising to 11500 bopd, net to eland $28pb probably after the second vessel has departed, clearly things seem to have returned to some normality in Nigeria but sadly terrorism is everywhere now, so we have a 40% increase in production and a 100% increase in net to eland now they have moved back to "pre-existing" arrangements. oil should remain 50-55 but the trend is indicating that its likely to move towards $60 towards the end of the year, that seems to be confirmed by people in suits with rulers and crayons. Interesting pantomime between the US and the Cartel, i thought i finished watching these when i was a teenager. The plan here was to get this to 53p last 2 weeks before this restart but there were too many hidden buyers near 55-56p popping in.
Looking at my notes based on what the CEO said at the CM day they were making $12pb @ $50 via the ships and via the pipeline its $27pb @ $50. Add the anticipated growth in production to 17500bopd this year then this should be something to provide a catalyst generating some $400k per day of profit it seems. Even if oil pulls back there is plenty of room for substantial profits still. Probably will take a week or so to become apparent to the market so i shall be adding this week. Just my opinions of course based on what has been said.
dont think so MB just taking a different channel now after traders got spooked and it dipped below 50.5 my opinion is that 48 to 50.5 is it for a few days. Big long candle thingy with green top but will know better later today.
Panmure update after cap markets day. NAV 130p Target 130p EPS 2017 26c 2018 48.5c, Opuama 1 producing next few weeks and OP 7 Q3 Fairly decent bounce off 2 supports for oil the last few days so i personally dont see oil going much lower than 50.5. 75-80p is where this should be now with my eyes set on 2018-19 nearer £4-5. Oil traders agree?
MB you thought this was going to 52p last week and the week before it was going to 65p, i see that as shockingly bad predictions to be honest. I dont see 8000bopd at $10 increasing to 17500bopd as shocking. Who cares if oil is $45 other than traders , as i said if people want to give us their shares at below 54p then we will be happy to have them and keep them for a bit.
depends on who is interested in this and what their target price is and how much money they have to spend. The fundamentals are that this company is making oil at $10 and selling it for over $50 and took $8m in a few months and another $8m is due soon, the delta is currently peaceful (nearly 4 months) , Forcados will open in a few months, the NAV is about £1, so If people want to give back their shares at 54p and below because of some technicals and a retrace in Oil and forget fundamentals then thanks. Buying at any price below 60p will IMO see a 100% gain in about 12 months but people love to buy and highlight potential when the price is rising. I never disclose my current position or post positives or negatives based on it. Highlighting the overbought nature of it at 62p would have been a bit of a deramp or whatever you want to call it. Shares do their thing regardless of their overvalued or undervalued status and traders generally talk prices and movement. Great company this is but my opinions mean nothing really.
you can subscribe to full broker notes and research on research tree, its an essential tool IMHO if you want to verify your findings, the report is 19 pages long today on ELA. The risk is the area they operate in but as stated this is being managed by the government via dialogue and by alternative delivery.
to cut my research time a little and direct me could you help on these areas please 1 Competition and how this fits with DB is it just smiths? 2 margins on the equipment 3 is this just revenue on sales or is there any monitoring such as analysis of security video etc 4 Value of IP 5 does is scan for contrabands also not just weapons im impressed with the list of shareholders with 81% in safe hands so only 31m shares knocking about, impressed with the 100% success scanning 1000 people an hour 5x faster than conventional methods but want to understand terahertz and if you can get around it with scanning, reminds me of the scene in total recall "two weeks" i assume conventional methods are the smiths eqo machines which i calculate do about 180 people an hour so 5x this is where they are which is great and could indicate a takeover target for the ip maybe in light of increased threats. unsure about cash position looks challenging so another placing possibly but thats expected i suppose but II will be happy to buy more i guess in light of the issues we face.
who is the person on this bb who has researched this and its competitors, as i have some questions. many thanks
MB apologies, forcados still remains closed article came up in last 7 days news search but dated last year so its June. Still a risk here but as they have alternative methods and took $8m with another $8m due then it doesnt really matter to me personally these small outbreaks of terrorism. We are all (including markets) becoming desensitised to them anyway.
Open now http://venturesafrica.com/shell-reopens-forcados-export-terminal/