focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Khun, that would be cross bb promotion so i wont mention names but what is very interesting is that the Forcados terminal in Nigeria was re-opened in the last 5 days so i see this as the top of the 3 i have selected now. Talks between the governments and militants are progressing as opposed to the "crush them" direction they took and i see considerable value in this but appreciate that it will fall and rise with spot prices which are irrelevant if you churn out this much cash anyway.
i estimate about 3x current price so near 40p is fair value. In at 14p out 40-45p
Broker is reviewing the figures further but there could be an upgrade from the target price of 95p-£1, the report is available via research tree or from the broker if you are a client. I ignore broker targets anyway and calculate my own if they agree (they do) then im happy. Im only in Oil as i have some contacts in the industry who said the whole sector was recovering, its not my area of knowledge but there are 3 companies that look very good to me in this sector and this is one of them.
there is a new broker note out from Panmure which is worth reading indicating significant upside here as if you didnt know, the 150p area seems a sensible target this year and a few years nearer £3.8-4 on a modest pe of 10
good read and some quick maths generating about $3.5m a month off an average of 5500 bopd at $52, with 50000 possible. Seems exceptional, seems they can ship ok also. Very good RNS glad i recommended this to a few people well undervalued
very interested in this and wish to add more but whats the ownership % of Opuama and does anyone have the costs per barrel for production. Nigeria generally is around $31 i believe. in addition if all wells are brought online (currently just opuama 10k pd) what is the capacity?
Own revised estimate of 2016 EOY profits due June considering FX & gold prices..... $12m net, giving EPS at current fx rates of 10.9p again giving the 120p area as a reasonable target. PE 10-12. Mine depth now 100+m should produce gold grades above current 7.5 g/t. cost of sales IMO around $740oz Broker target compiled July 2016 is giving $16m eps 12p. I think that is now a touch high lets see who is right. looks like they will probably pay out about 50% of profits in yearly special dividend like 2016. Decent growth last 12 months 170% and 10% divvy. If gold continues its slow climb could have 3x current price from here 2018 and if broker has more accurate figures then projected profit by them for 2017 is $29m giving an EPS of 20.9p target price £2.
im waiting for 45p, really impressed me this one it made it onto my "Love" list
2017 should see the extension of mining licence being given, giving a mine life of about 15 years @ 40k oz of gold. Those director buys are far too high to indicate otherwise. Ruble gone down against the dollar another 15% since last half yearly report, book value around 60p, new target on confirmation of extension 120p. adding near & below 40p. Long term hold.
call full year at current exchange rates about £10m net profit, they are increasing their cash position by $1m a month have $18m in the bank and its worth £54m. Production is flat at 38k oz pa so keep a modest PER. All this talk about returning $89m as profits. Plus all the buys recently from directors. take it back to 43-45 and i will have some more for sure. target 70+p now. Give it a few days and gold will be on the rise again.
It is therefore proposed that the amount currently standing to the credit of TSG's share premium account, representing the accumulated difference between the price at which ordinary shares have been issued and their nominal value, (such amount being, as at 2 September 2016, US$89,520,424) be cancelled and, subject to the approval of the Court, that the resulting sum of US$89,520,424 be credited to the distributable profits of the Company. good lets have some of that then.....
so we have UFG asset management buying a chunk recently and now 2 NED of TSG buying....... one of whom happens to be the Chairman of UFG. So why did Charles put a million quid of his own money into it i wonder and not just get UFG to buy the lot, is this grossly undervalued?
2 decent buys from Charles Ryan 5m shares and Robert Sasson 500k.
i shall have a few, looks a very good technical buy IMHO at this level seems to be ready for a rise.
of 74p, drop yesterday first thing seemed manufactured on opening, figures and production update seemed ok to me.
http://www.***************************/trans-siberian-gold-plc-46-2-potential-upside-indicated-cantor-fitzgerald/412702210 getting it now it seems....
Russian Ruble has devalued by approximately 15% further 2015-16 and in downtrend, the half yearly updates are specific to mention that the biggest reason for cost reduction is the declining ruble, therefore it could be assumed that costs will be down by a further 15% in 2016 due to the currency and Gold on that period is up about 5%, so figures revised $1015 costs less 15% (currency) $862 giving $387 an oz profit on $1250 gold 40000oz X $387 = $15.4m or £10m, PE 10 = £100m call it £75m 1 year target 65p a share.
The 2014 results state.... Total costs on the same basis, after depreciation of all capital expenditure (including $30.5 million post start up) and including all pre-start up mining and other operating expenditure, are forecast at $1,015/oz., giving a $185/oz. margin at a gold price of $1,200/oz. So if production stays flat in 2016 at 40000oz gold then we have this 40000oz x $185 ($1200 2015 average gold price) its $7.4m 40000oz x $235 ($1250 2016 ave gold price) its $9.4m That's just gold not including silver sales. So it should be worth about £60+m currently or about 40% more than where it is. Just my opinion rarely does the market agree with me immediately though.
A production update is due this month for Q1 but looking at this closer we have a gold miner producing 37-40k oz of gold pa with a 7.39 g/t and 48-50k oz of silver pa. Cost of Sales was $712 and cash costs $489 which reduced by 40% in 2015 so demonstrates these guys can run a mine. It's trading on a forward PE of 3 as analysts forecast EPS 9p, which is the same as Centamin. Its got $7 in cash and paying off its debt. TNAV is 30% less than its current price. At a PE of 12 this is clearly worth at least double this. Very odd indeed, we shall await the word to spread. Quite literally a gold mine IMHO.
35p area does seem very interesting, gold has ended its little retrace it seems.