Member Info for Goldenbadger1

I think most are wise enough to know that the legal oversight of markets by the regulators , will do Absolutely nothing for a Retail investor . Accepting this fact is critical when balancing risk .

By the way , where PMO went wrong was a very poor hedging strategy in a high risk position pre - Catcher . Durant failed here and we paid the price .

ARCM knew the regulator was a 'Paper Tiger ' and acted accordingly agreed .

I laugh when statements like 'the markets are well regulated' are made , what a Joke .

PMO was hobbled and set up for a cheap takeover by undisclosed Asian shorters for years . When they were found guilty they got a small financial slap on the wrist for non disclosure .

Meanwhile they made stupendous profits at the expense of regular shareholders .

Again this is not a well regulated system it is a 'Shark Tank '

The Regulators are a joke in my opinion .

UK Budget Oct 30th

US Election Nov 5th

HBR Update Nov 7th

Israel response to Iran

Confident that post November by year end £3.60 share price .

Why ?

UK investment will be more Tax efficient as previous capex expenditure starts to be offset .

US Elections will reduce need for manipulation of Oil price .

With this highly complex global transaction completed, the Accountants in HBR will demonstrate the Tax , Share and structural benefits of the new business on the bottom line .

This Company is on the right track and by March 2025 a clearer picture will emerge .

Barring any Black Swan events .

Quietly Confident .

Using Hess as a model for Share value .

Drive the Total Shares in issue down asap to minimise Manipulation take the Oxygen out .

Critical KPI for next 3 years Profit after Tax .

Asia is the place i believe .

Oct 31st Budget will determine any further UK Development Capex for HBR .

Should increase in WT take place, HBR could start to seriously pursue US listing .

Looking at BOA, are they tasked by HBR to purchase shares under a stated value for a commission ?

Could these cheap shares be part of a Deal that swaps 252m Letter one non voting shares for Voting shares ?

On conclusion of the swap, Letter Ones present shares are cancelled achieving the same objective as previously speculated , only at a much lower cost to HBR .

a DEAL on a £2.80 average v £3.60 if BASF were to be paid out .

Just a Thought .

NSS my reasoning is as follows :

BASF benefits by receiving ( 252m x £3.60 ) £907m for share sale to speed up exit and allow transition to start new ventures . Beginning of Disinvestment in O&G that they require .

Letter One presently have 252m Shares that are non-voting these could then become full ordinary shares . HBR would transact a swap although unsure of Tax benefits/ liabilities .

Benefit to Harbour shareholders is reduction in shares to 1440 b ordinary only, from 1690 b .

Dividend for 2025 could be $455m as promised with the Divi being 32 cents a 20% increase .

In a very flat range presently and low finance rates , Strategy would be Asia development and Share Buyback .

Over the next 3 years i would expect BASF gone and 1.0b shares by end 2027 . AIMHO

HBR have a great opportunity to offer BASF at a premium of +25% £3.60 per share for 252m shares then cancel them .

At these prices use it to our Advantage .

The value of £12.19 is correct , if we lived in the world according to potential and fundamentals, not in the new cyberworld of manipulation and banking products designed to support the aforementioned .

Nothing was learnt from 2008 from a risk management point of view .

HBR will transform when least expected, probably on a US listing .

Talos and Mexican Govt will not agree on Development as Bad relationship .

HBR are 3rd wheel and even with Slim agreement will be very difficult . Talos have dug heels in to prevent hostile takeover .

Talos positioning for a Deal not a Fire sale .

With poison pill strategy Zama off the table for 12 months .

Opportunity in Asia over next 18 months to start significant production .

Argentina and Egypt are prime development opportunities with new governments

The above are also less risky presently than any deal involving Pemex .

The following Energy companies are producing presently similar to New Hbr .

Woodside

Hess

Harbour .

On EBITDAX The following

Woodside $9.3 b

Hess $6.6b

Harbour $6.9b

Profit after Tax :

Woodside $1.66b

Hess $1.70b

Harbour $570m

Shareholders :

Woodside 1.9b

Hess 308m

Harbour 1.69b

Shareprice

Woodside £13

Hess £100 Listed in USA ( $130 )

Harbour £3

All on 500k Production . Or am i missing something apart from Tax position and number of shares ?

To get an idea of US based energy company valuations v HBR then have a look at Hess which has a very similar profile to the new HBR .

UK future pending, 31st October Labour decision, if not favourable zero capex except maintenance in UK.

HBR Holding approx 20 years of O&G , 2025, 2026, 2027 ALL Capex to be utilised into Development of Identified profitable production , zero into Exploration . We have sufficient 2P AND 2C presently .

2025 Buy out 250m BASF shares at these low prices +- $1.0b , clean up Letter One position . April 25 total shares in issue 1440 m .

2025 also reduce Debt by $1.5b to $3.0b . $500m will be saved on G& Admin alone .

As with Premier rationalise supplier base achieving Economy of scale savings, probably only bankable 2026 .

If Trump wins, oil price pressure downwards will be exerted , expand hedges to 160k boepd 30% of production . If possible in next 4 months .

Reducing the net boe cost from $50 to $40 will require savings of $1.8b , which with consolidation at least $1.0b is feasible .

While the above is happening the share price in 2025 will be around £4 with 7% divi .

After 2025 this share i am confident will be a multi-bagger . Why ? we will list Stateside .

Zero Debt , 1,0 b shares and $40 boe net cost on 500k production by 31/12/2027 should be the Goal .

We have a Great Team and barring a myriad of potential obstacles they will deliver .

Stay Strong and Stay Long .

HBR and WDEA Combined

Oil Production 68mboe

Gas Production 115m boe

Total 183m boe .

Gas 63%

Oil 37%

Revenue for 2024 estimated $10, 705 m

Capex for 2024 $2.0 b

Development

Norway : Maria Phase 2 start up 2025

Dvalin North start up 2026

Adriana reserves increase +35m boe

Cuvette Gas reserves increase + 28m boe

13 new licences received .

Argentina Fenix Gas start up Q4 2024 .

The Uni-party has made the most serious mistake for the Economy of the UK and is about to bury it's Oil and Gas independence . Unbelievable stupidity i wonder how the unions will square this in Aberdeen .

All the UNI-PARTY needs to do is copy Norway with a 20 year policy to bring certainty .

IMHO

Share price will be managed to transition Letter One into Ordinary shares at most Tax Advantaged price . Q3 completion and letter One 6 month lock up , opens up new Tax options for converting their 251m shares into Ordinary Shares .

I would see BASF reducing by 251m shares end Q1 2025 , allowing Letter One in . The cost , tax , financial games that will benefit our company are unfortunately above my pay grade .

Also i see we have a $1.0 B loan maturing around the same time , so over to our experts .

Confident in HBR ....... believe BOA are part of strategy to exit BASF timeously and cost effectively .

The most difficult agreements for the Deal are now in play , with the Argentina and Vietnam possibly the easiest .

Mexico gets a new president in October and with Pemex $100b in Debt its going to get interesting .

Indonesia also swear in new president in October so again an interesting negotiation .

Basically they will be looking for something in return and hopefully Slim has paved the way in Mexico as this deal needs to conclude October .

Agree with Steve if remain on Ftse end of 2025 :

Debt $2-2.5b

Dividend $500m

Shares in issue 1440m

Share price £4 minimum

Would expect a £1 rise p.a in share price thereafter .....

Talos / interesting comparison :

Revenue $1.6b

Debt $1.47b

No Dividend

Shares 180m

Production 95K

Share Price $12

Harbour Revenue $3.7m

Debt 0

Shares 764m

Production ly 200k

Share price $3 .

Dividend paid = 7% .

Demonstrates why in the USA this HBR share pre deal worth at least $12

Have been in here since Premier disaster .

Believe deal will conclude October , with Mexico probably going to be most challenging on sign off .

The above will give a good read on Mexican trust and Slim's influence . The interesting part will be studying the detail of the Mexican deal we will have on deal completion ( 10k } production .

On completion the new Harbour needs to be driven by Tax , Legal experts and accountants . HBR will have all the reserves required for the next 10 years , the question is how to maximise profitability and minimise legislative risk .

Can the new HBR get concrete legally binding agreements with Indonesia and Mexico that are profitable ?

Unfortunately the UK has set a very poor example .

On the positive , expect UK Capex to dive to $400m 2025 which is fine , as we should start receiving Tax credits on previous 5 year Capex expenditure .

July 2025 believe is next critical date , with share consolidation to 1.440 ordinary shares , BASF reducing by 251 m and letter one taking them up .

A Long wait and if we don't see significant share value then take listing to USA .