Member Info for Goldenbadger1

My gut feel is a Deal with Talos should be an outright purchase for this to be viable to HBR shareholders , i would be buying Talos at a max of $2.0 b .

Talos have Debt of $1.0b and i believe at these oil prices , are struggling to finance Development , hence selling a share in Zama .

If HBR can apply the same tactics used to Buy PMO for nothing , then fine , a dual listing is also beneficial .

All while the UK wakes up to requiring self sufficiency in O&G , PRIOR to hopefully getting Rolls Royce mini reactors up and running .

Government sitting in Limbo on this aswell .

The UK needs self sufficiency in Reliable Energy , Food , Medicine , Water and Security .

We live in uncertain Times .

Hurricane should have around $140m in the bank with possible $150m + after April . End of year who knows .
Brent for 2023 is unpredictable , as it was at the time of the previous scam. ' With little prospect of paying off the Debt'
As stated i will vote NO and go with CA's plan that was unfortunately withdrawn .
This Disgraceful BOD should not Win !

At this point happy to add my Shares to a no vote .
Timing of BOD to release offer planned , on a very Negative day .
BOD remaining at the Trough .
Usual Smoke and mirrors , jam tomorrow deal .
CA seem surprisingly supportive WHY ?
Prefer 3.1p Capital return now . BOD removed and bring in the Cowboys .
The offer is abstract for a reason ........ it's a shocker .
No No No

Why would any sane O&G company invest in the North Sea ?
Just too Hacked off with these idiots who instead of cancelling HS2 and taxing Meta , Amazon ect on Windfall profits during lockdown . Tories have just gone and screwed the UK's one opportunity to move towards energy Independence .
We are happy to buy from the USA it seems having learnt nothing from the wealth transfer conducted during WW1 AND WW2 .

Sale in 2025 should read .

So the waiting Game continues with the Top priority of the BOD to keep their snouts in the Trough as long as possible .
So if you are the patient type then the Financials could look like this .
31/12/2022 free cash $125m
28/03/2023 free cash $160m
31 March 2023 pay divi 3.1p cost $70m
31/5/2023 free cash $120m
30/6/2023 free cash $160m
1 July 2023 pay divi 3.4p cost $80m
31/9/2023 free cash $90m
31/12/203 free cash $120m less Taxation .
Repeat in 2024 the above so 31/12/2024 Shareholders if well 6 holds will have 13p returned .
A divi and sale in 2024 i would hope for a 10p -12p return with a bit of luck .

As most highly experienced and highly paid Experts cannot predict next weeks Financial movements , let alone 2023 . Let me simplify the Harbour Financials for 2023 . Within a 10% margin of error .
Revenue $6.0 b
Opex $1.0b
Capex $1.0b
Tax total $1.0b
Debt paid $1.1b
Buybacks $ 635m
Dividends $350m
Cash in hand from 2023 operations $1.0b .
Remember as stated many months ago Share Buybacks should result end 2025 , 500m Shares only .
Harbour on course and needs to develop Indonesia as Priority, forget any new NS spending . Stuff them .

The last 20 years of UK Government policy has placed the UK in this Financial mess , that the middle class are having to fund the result .
Nuclear through Rolls Royce was possible 12 years ago and with Base Loads in place , renewables could have grown into the space Without the 25% Stealth tax . Yet here we are .
Hindsight is a Wonderful thing and 10 years from now the UK will again lookback and say we were forced by a minority , to take a Short sighted position on UK energy Independence .
Companies like Harbour , Shell and BP , will just Offshore all future UK investment as Shareholders who weathered the Storm of $16 boe , jump ship if the do not .
Harbour has Mexico , Indonesia and Vietnam to invest in for example , so any further Populist increase in WT will see Capital flight .
This WT policy will have the same effect as increasing income tax on the most wealthy .

Unfortunately the UK middle class is and will be forced to fund the Transition that is proposed over next 30 years, not the Blackrock's of this world , THEY are counting on it !
Norway has built their financial and Energy Independence in a way the UK could learn from , if only our Elite Parliamentary Cabal would have a plan for the country and not only their political careers .
On Hurricane , i stick with Share buybacks as the only way to add value for Shareholders going forward .
Unless the Tories grow a spine and exempt O&G companies with revenue under $500 m thus encouraging UK Jobs and developing a competitive frontier .We will become more and more Dependent on Energy imports for the next 10 years instead of wiping out the £2.5 T UK Debt .
Another opportunity missed .

Terrible week yet again . What a resilient Bunch we are .
Hurricane Maths : Shares in issue +- 2 billion .
Cash in the Bank 31/12/ 2022 between $120- $130m .
With 2 billion shares in issue , should well 6 stop , Hurricane cash value is 6.5p (todays price ) . All other costs are covered i believe in Escrow account .
With this ridiculous share price , Hurr should make an offer to buy back 1.0b shares closing 31/11/2022 at 10p , lets have a tree shake .
As a pure guestimate in 2023 Hurr should generate another $120m net and implement in 2023 a further strategy picking up shares below 12p in the market ,possibly another 800m .
Just get Maris to make regular statements .
Should the remaining Brave Souls in 2024 , hold the remaining 200m Shares .
With a Great deal of Luck in 2024 Hurricane COULD produce $100m free cash . Would this not see the Share price at 50p on wind UP ? + any residual value from Tax ect .
Lets get this Done before we get Nationalised .

Let's forget any field production as the BOD have another Agenda . A share Buyback over next 24 months getting down towards 200m Shares by 31/12/ 2024 is required and lose the Deadbeats CEO and CFO .

Sense
We have both arrived at a figure around $125m by Dec 31 2022, so we may differ on workings however same end result .
My take is only regarding generating Free Cash , so Opex + Any other cost reducing cash .
In the month of Aug production was around 275k boe , as you confirm .
275k boe x opex cost boe @ $35.4 = $9.73m
Non opex costs Head office/Admin = $1.5 m Total = $11.23m +-
After the above Hurricane generate Free Cash .
Not an Accountant so happy for clarity .

Sense , while crude the $12m per month Total costing , has been built over a 6 month period and should it be $11m or $13 , in the bigger picture , a 10% running cost variance is not material.
From July we are not paying CB interest although August confirmed another $12m cost .
My Biggest concern is the Lack of anything Positive after having 6 months knowing CB's would be settled .
We are being Milked .

As at September 2022 the Shareholding
Crystal Amber 29%
Butterfield Bank Guernsey 22%
Small Shareholders 20%
Shanghai Pudong 16%
Others 13%
Trice still with his 26m shares ( wonder when gag comes off ?)
So where to from here ?
Firstly , as we are no longer a Fractured basement exploration company , just a Maintenance operation . We can rid ourselves of our 'expert ' CEO along with his CFO .
NEDS that can step up and save the company $1m per annum .
Secondly a Share Buyback of 100m shares per month can begin , with a target of 1.0b shares bought back and cancelled in 12 months for around $120-$150m .
Should we produce 3m boe during 2023 at ave oil of $100 boe after costs , free cash would be $150m for 2023 .
Continue the Share buyback in 2023 with the goal of reducing shares in issue to 200m .
If a 3rd party buyout happens in the mean time , then great at between 15p - 25p .
The $410m tax value will not feature as nobody is interested in buying a company with zero potential and Optimism .
As a 300k shareholder in Hurricane i am sick of the CEO and CFO , they provide nothing .

Agree with Gloucester $12m per month total costs so starting with $89 m free cash 31/7/2022
5 months costs until 31/12/2022 = $60m
2 x 535k Tankers ave $90 boe = $96m so NET Free Cash = $36m
$89 + $36M = $125M Free Cash as at 31/12/2022 .
Reduced by any CFO/CEO wasted cash on P8 , Forex , Court case , AM contract and BUYING $22m of tie back equipment that they believe we have forgotten about .
CEO and CFO have really tried their best to Deliver the company cheaply to a 3rd party .

Hurricane will benefit from a 10% improvement in dollar strength although this alone does not really make a significant difference to the company value to Shareholders .
Putin will i believe turn off the taps soon , as winter bites and this along with the finality of US midterms will force Oil + $100 by December .
Hurricane have a window of opportunity presently to buy a complimentary business , at a lower level in the next 6 weeks , or get a beneficial merger in place .
Risk reduction while increasing Shareholder value .
Kistos springs to mind as a Dutch focussed UK listed gas company . Kistos needs more UK balance with the threat of EU energy caps now a reality . The combined M Cap would be around £500m with little debt and a sound Managerial knowledge base , good diversification and excellent potential .
Just a Thought .

Second prize , Share buybacks at these ridiculous prices , if the BOD are going to sit on their Hands . Minimum value to me 15p fair value 25p .

No action this week i believe due to the following :
Clarity required on Truss policy regarding Windfall Tax and pricing agreement for UK supply over winter and UK Energy supply and capped costs , possibly agreed until 2025 . ' One hand washes the other' .
With above in place and Well 6 back up and running , then a more realistic valuation for Hurricane can be delivered .
A merger of Kistos and Hurricane would be first prize for Shareholders , with 200m Shares max in issue .

End Jan 2023 should read end Feb 2023 for 535k load and $36m added to free cash .
$186m end Feb 2023 .

145 Days at 8,400 ave would also do it as usually after a clean up we get a slight increase in production .
AM i would also assume , carries over a few thousand barrels for peak release .

NS
Based on a 10 day shutdown and 140 days at 8,500 give or take .

With 5 months of total expenses at $60m ($12m pm ) to year end , dropping the $89m free cash , an opportunity exists for only 2 further offloads in 2022 . Depending on WT finality and Our Tax position , it may be Advantageous for Hurricane to have 2 x 600k tankers rather than the usual 2x 535k version .
Two 600k tankers at $100 boe would leave us at $150m free cash year end with $48m coming in at the end of Jan 2023 .
Around $200m end of Jan 2023 a nice pot for shopping around post peak pricing .
Just a Thought .