Sense thanks for feedback .
Really the telling statement from Maris was that the BOD were 'under no Legal obligation to buy shares '.
CA must have a Hell of an Ace up the sleeve , because this statement given by any CEO who worked for me , would have got the individual fired . This is really a no confidence vote in Hurricane going forward , maybe he should have just stated 'they are looking into it '
Back to CA really as they voted to keep the two in place .
Patience wearing Thin .
Sense
Maybe i am missing the boat on your chat with CEO just for Clarity .
Is he saying the Drop in share price below 1p was caused by the PI's and the True value as per the market was always 8p ?
What is/was the true value of Hurricane that the industry always knew ?
Is he saying that if PI's stop trading Hurricane shares then we may see 'True value ' ?
What did the BOD , who always knew the true value of the company believe it was ? If the value was significantly higher , why did they never buy shares ?
Unbelievable how Tone deaf this CEO is i cannot believe CA have kept him and the Organ Grinder on (COO) .
After 9 months where the BOD would have been quite aware of the company Debt repayment and Free cash situation , we still await an action plan .
Listening to the chatter after the AGM and subsequent CA predictions of a 'cash windfall ' in October, i would assume that the Big announcement will be made in September .
After watching the performance of Kistos over a 2 year period i for one will be measuring Hurricane SP v Kistos SP performance .
Kistos appears to be a yardstick in looking after Shareholders and running a successful O&G business . £1 to £5.80 over two years .
While Not invested in Kistos , i am increasing my expectation of the BOD of Hurricane to finally deliver for Shareholders and if they cannot deliver , they need to go .
Kistos come and Buy us . Please .
Diamond have contracted out Ocean Great white in the North Sea for 300 days starting Q1 2023 The rig will drill 5 wells at a cost of $80m . Looks like the Diamond drill rigs are booking up quickly foe 2023 , are Hurricane asleep at the wheel ?
EMG should be under consideration with Andrew , Solan and the $3.0b assets of CNOCC which BOA are involved with selling . It's probably the Top of the Market price wise , Hurricane is however Cash rich ( $90m ) in comparison to many small O&G ops .
The BOD have had around 10 months to narrow options would expect news in next 6 weeks .
CA although upset around comms from Maris , did vote to keep him for some obscure reason .
2022 Strategy is Sound .
Debt will be zero in early 2023 .
2022 accelerate buybacks to achieve 800m S.I.I by 31/12/2022 .
$200m divi for 2022 is fine use cash for above .
Production should be 220k boepd in 2022 .
Increase Hedging for 24 , 25 , 26 , at these inflated levels + $100 boe .
In reducing Shares in Issue to 500m by 2026 and keeping divi at $200 pa remaining shareholders will have double the Divi even with bots controlling SP .
Buy Neptune to avoid WT .
While the financials we can all see are very impressive , i cannot understand the recent movements in Share ownership . Tax savings by Linda ect has been put forward as a reason i don't buy it .
Interesting how the SP was captured and is still within a vice like grip , the only upside being cheaper share buybacks which i support . In fact i would support a continual buyback down to 500m shares to take any liquidity out of the market .
Also of interest was the joint meeting with Neptune held with the MOF and yes they are a NS focussed company as well .
CEO plan for HBR :
All Debt paid back asap 2022 if possible ..
Buy Neptune December 2022 for 2022 production .
Pay off Neptune cost over 3 years avoiding WT as far as possible .
As stated keep moving towards 500m Shares .
Just a Thought . Fire away .
e- mail sent
The CB finalisation leaves Hurricane in the following position :
Estimated value $58m for this 30th load .
As at 31/7/2022 Free cash at $90m +- ............ Zero Debt .
All Hurricane costs pre free cash generation at $12m per month presently .
Free Cash projected 31/12/2022 around $140m pre Windfall Tax with a maximum of $72m of the $140m liable for 25% WT .
$18m WT worst case leaving free cash $122 m for fin year .
On an Average production of 8,250 boepd for 2023 Hurricane would generate $150m cash pre WT at $100 boe .
To generate real returns production needs to increase to around 20k boepd + gas if possible .
A new Era begins ........
Around December 2020 i was reading up about CEO Andrew Austin and his exceptional delivery for Shareholders in his old company . Mr A had just launched his new company Kistos a gas company in the Netherlands , shares launched at around £1 on Aim .
The temptation personally was to take a large bloodbath on Hurricane and move on . The rest is History , i didn't move on and the Kistos share sits at + £5 in 20 months .
While many of us will have these frustrations the point i would like to make , is the following .
A great CEO can deliver looking after all parties in a Venture including Shareholders and a relationship of Trust is fostered . The comparison between the Kistos and Hurricane team is stark look at the Hurricane BOD delivery over those same 20 months . At war with Shareholders or some should i say .
On Monday i would be very happy to see Maris and Chaffe go , they are tainted and incompetent , they do not inspire any trust or confidence .
Monday is about to change the Dynamics and my sell target is not 15p its higher , we have not been through this Hell for nothing .
Keep strong , hold if possible , do not let them win now .
As a Dogged group of mainly LTH 's we have travelled a long road together , frequently being advised Oblivion was the only future outcome . We are now however , at a Historic point in our companies life cycle , the impossible CB payback is happening on Sunday July 24th .
With a Tanker due probably around the same weekend and possibly a cash injection of $55m at $108 boe . Free cash after CB repayment and minus 2 months costs , as at 31st July will be around $85m in free cash .
After all this time an RNS confirming all the above would be most welcome on August 1st 2022 .
The forward plan i would then expect on or around August 2nd 2022 as our Wonderful BOD has had over 6 months to examine 4 years of Data and many tests results , so should be able to produce a feasible plan generating between 10 - 15 k boepd .
It's Time for the BOD to earn their rather large salaries whilst lastly agreeing to 20% of annual package being invested directly in Hurricane shares at Aug 2 price .
A 'Win Win' we are all for once in this Company together . Maybe the AGM next year will be a celebration rather than ' The Spanish Inquisition ' . We live in Hope .
Laughable the way shares are manipulated in plain sight , a few examples :
PMO destroyed by an undisclosed short via ARCM , they were fined less than £1m while PMO shareholders were virtually wiped out .
HBR shares lowered artificially for positive tax advantage of Major Shareholders .
Hurricane attempted Share grab last year funded by Shareholder cash .
Sirius Minerals sold off for peanuts to Anglo and again Shareholder value destroyed .
Why is this relevant ?
The Hurricane BOD , Crystal Amber and Kerogen have an opportunity to look after ALL Shareholders . .......... Will they ?
The next 2 months are Transformational for many long suffering Shareholders in Hurricane .
Should Hurricane choose to have no exploration in 2022 then WT on a profit of $105m will be paid , $26m . Also nothing to show , only one depleting well , keeping risk high and the share price at a maximum of 15p .
Lets go Drilling .
On July 31st we should have in cash $88m after CB pay off .
By Oct 31st 2022 cash should be around $125 m give or take .
A $60m drilling programme on Lancaster to locate another 10k boepd well , should be considered in October 22 , now the Windfall Tax is clarified .
As understood , Hurricane would receive a 90% rebate on exploration costs, thereby costing Hur only $6m of the $60m campaign .
Should the drill find a 10k boepd well (or 2 ), the Economics would /should look as follows :
At $100 boe for 12 months Revenue $365 m
Total cost per barrel pre cash $45 - $165 m
Cash profit per barrel $55 = $200m
Minus 25% Windfall Tax $50m
Net Cash income for 12 months = $150m
Minus $6m Exploration Cost to Hur = $144m
The above would be additional to the current production ave 8k boepd for next 18 months .
All that is required is a well informed drill target and the belief that only certain Shareholders have in Hurricanes potential . Thoughts ?
Lord Frost only credible candidate , the rest are a bunch of Jellyfish with no Backbone apart from Priti .
Buy Neptune
Before they buy HBR , get on the front foot we have the money .
Get a pro HBR Shareholder deal , that 'should' take the WT off the table for a while .
Correction it would cost the CB holders £100m to buy out the other 55% at 12p .
Bottom line , Hurricane for £100m which would be recouped by July 2023 .
Is this possible ?
Really this investment comes down to Trust in the BOD unfortunately . The critical time will be July 24th and the settlement of the CB'S . Will this be a clean settlement or will the CB holders strike a deal with CA to buy their 29% ?
If 15p per share is offered to CA (£90m) i think it maybe accepted . With Kerogen involved somewhere, with 16% you can do the maths . The Hurricane cash at around £90m in the bank , would pretty much pay for the above , so the buyer effectively gets Hurricane for free .
Sound familiar . They then take Hurricane private .
Would it be correct to say that the outstanding 55% of shares could be bought out at 12p as highest sp in last 12 months ? Would they need 51% approval ?
Please tell me the above is not possible , as last 18 months experience in PMO and Hurricane does not fill me with confidence or Trust in the BOD or UK FSA .
Or am i talking Kak .
Great work , Thank you Senseman and fellow attendees .
Investors invest based on fundamentals and confidence . How does the present board going forward , inspire Trust and confidence after the 2021 court case where Shareholders nearly lost their investment ?