Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Maybe the Labour party can use the threat of Putin to save face .

Put in a model exactly the same as Norway and legislate this for 10 years .

UK needs jobs , investment and Oil and Gas for next 10 years at least .

Harbour/ Shareholders could then take a positive approach to continued UK investment .

Thanks Dan

Agreed i would be putting a Deal on the Table that would include HBR total carbon capture business as that would fit neatly into BASF as they go Greener . Obviously with a preferential customer clause .

Carbon capture is not our core business after all

The present turmoil may strengthen HBR negotiations in Indonesia and Mexico as the investment risk has substantially increased .

All in All if the share price stays here, i have more HBR shares for my Divi so not all Doom and Gloom .

Anyone any Thoughts on an 'Off the Books buyback ' ?

How would it work ?

Would share holders benefit ?

Is it too risky in this present meltdown or would it be well timed ?

Would BASF accept less than £3.60 to exit ?

Thoughts in this week of Carnage .

Looking at a Consolidated picture Hopefully :

Revenue around $11 b

Production around 177m boe for 2024 .

After Tax profit $1.2 b

Debt around $4.3 b

A Plan on letter One share purchase in 2025

We shall see as no obvious leaks this week .

NSS Many Thanks for all the info you place on here regularly .

HBR have positioned very well going forward in Argentina and Egypt i believe is also on the front burner for expansion .

Add Andaman and Algeria in 2025 and we will lift our overall return significantly outside Europe .

In Norway , UK and Germany with the freeze on and low supplies ,secure 2026 , 2027 hedges at higher prices while we have this window of opportunity .

Still very wary of Mexico although a secure profitable agreement on an extra 100k boepd would be very welcome to HBR Debt reduction .

Difficult year to predict on Share price maybe update will provide clarity on the Strategy .

$1.0 b Argentina , Egypt , Algeria and Andaman split according to ROI and 5 year window .

$200m for Norway , UK tie backs .

HBR get 100k new production from A A, A, and E .

UK and Norway should take care of any loss in current 503 k production .

Wouldn't that be a Game changer . Preferred to anymore Acquisitions .

Great clarity from HBR to Mexican Govt :

We can produce an extra 100k boepd from assessed fields .

Clear guaranteed investment rules need to be signed .

The agreement needs to be signed in next few months .

If no agreement reached , HBR capex will be deployed elsewhere .

HBR have now many profitable options , Mexico now has our cards on the Table .

With Argentina looking more and more promising , maybe Asia is our next play .

Just a Thought .

Why would you want a Higher share price at the moment ?

Letter One and BASFs investment is needed in 2025 to aid Debt reduction , a strong share price would encourage selling after Feb 2025 .

Correct strategy in Developing Argentina , Egypt and Andaman first .

UK and Norway will plod along with cheap tie backs .

The CCS model at low risk and cost is also now a Go which will clarify the Economics of CCS prior to any major investment .

Barclays projections 2024 and 2025 look fine , as probably a conservative guesstermate .

Pre -Tax profits of $6.0 b are sound for now .

Mexico production 2025 still prefer Kan first .

Talos Takeover i believe still on the cards, we can play a waiting game for this and let Slim do his thing .

Had the following projections for this financial year :

70m boe at $80 $5.6 b Oil

70m boe at $47 $3.6b Euro gas

40m boe at $35 $1.4 World gas

While raw data , the above highlights why Asia , Africa and South America need optimising for improved pricing .

Argentina and Andaman and a good start with i would guess Egypt to follow .

Production will probably reach 178m boe for the year but pricing achieved will be close to above .

Hi NSS ,

Possible to buy and remain listed in UK for a while yet ?

Probably working on a Talos deal which would re-balance the O&G ratio .

The above would also result in HBR having a pipeline of 20 years resources , sufficient to refocus all efforts on Shareholder returns going forward as we're not getting any younger or richer.

In 2025 HBR need to remove the Letter One Shareholding possibly by selling Vietnam and Tuna to them ? Letter one could then form their own independent private O&G company .

Just a Thought .

Very Interesting NSS .

Previously i have looked at the Hess comparison to compare with HBR and look at our potential .

Stand out points were basically :

Production same 500k boepd .

Profit after Tax Hess $1.7b HBR $500m

Cash Flow Ops Hess $3.9b HBR $1.6b

Shareholders Hess 308m HBR 1,690b .

Hess US listed HBR UK listed .

Hess is HBR's model or should be with same production Why ?

HBR share price $3.50

Hess share price $148 .00 .

May take 5 years but if that's the Destination i'm onboard .

NSS

A Deal with Slim for all Mexican Assets would be on my Radar .

Slim will have the Mexican Knowledge and relationships to crack the challenge . In return for his Shareholding in HBR AND CASH .

Unfortunately on HBR calendar i see next comms in January 2025 only .

Well spotted NSS.

Hence the reason to go 'Kan first' and possibly also after Asia development .

2024 Financials will have all possible tax beneficial costs thrown in , basically a Transitional year .

The Strategy and Direction of Travel i.e .possible Talos buyout , Letter One shares , BASF shares , US listing among many issues will probably only be Presented in March 2025 .

Lock up for BASF and Letter One will be finished and the UK will have decided on making 200,000 workers potentially redundant in O&G UK . A very sad day indeed should that occur .OR not .

Trump will also have placed his Business Strategy on the table regarding Company Tax ect supporting a USA listing .

Harbour by March 2025 will be in a Position to make critical long term decisions .

Finally after going through the Destruction of Premier Oil and being heavily into Harbour , you do build up a Resilience to Days like Today .

I Believe many Investors from the PMO days are still in here and Dare i say have the Dunkirk tenacity required to Hang in as Better times are ahead .

HBR will have integrated WD by year end with the consolidation of Support Contractors finalised by end 2025 .

The Opportunities / Challenges facing us presently are :

UK Tax regime where to offset, Capex in 2025 can be reduced to a maximum of lets say $300m .

Secondly around 30% of production is outside Europe where although costs are low , we are not achieving anywhere close to Global pricing .

Argentina , Mexico , Egypt , Algeria and Libya have i believe local agreements which are in line with the economic realities those governments face . Local Gas to local people at affordable levels .

Mexico and Argentina are important to Harbour growth and profitability and both can be very different Beasts in 5 years time for investors . Hence my reluctance regarding Pemex .

HBR and Slim should invest in Kan utilising an fpso to ensure production independence . Also as HBR on hook for Kan Capex, pay Mexican government in boe , the formula for which can be developed .

A successful partnership on the Kan project would then translate into a model for Zama, as presently Pemex/ Mexican Government have no money only Debt .

Success here would develop models for our other Global Oil fields .

Gas is another challenge especially Argentina although present Government pro growth, so Gas exports across South America is a huge opportunity through pipeline or Liquid conversion .

International supply in all these cases could offset low local pricing a Win Win for business orientated governments and long suffering Harbour shareholders .

I Think we need Pemex ' To show us the money ' they are the Operator after all .

We may have lots of Oil in Mexico , unfortunately wrapped up in a Banana Republic .

Tread carefully, maybe go with Kan i.e. no Pemex .

Lets test the water or go Asia .

Tomorrow

Tuna agreement finalised .

US potential move .

Talos discussions

Letter One pathway to cleaning up Share issue and reducing .

Mexico will be still High risk, although with Trump in place HBR in stronger negotiating position .

Still prefer Asia first .

Will the last O&G company in the UK PLEASE TURN THE LIGHTS OFF .

2024 Revenue $10 b

Production 485K boepd

Present Daily production 500k boepd

Profit pre tax $2.0 b

Net Debt $4.0b

With a Trump win we can relocate Stateside to a Business and O&G supportive regime .

Unfortunately blackouts ect are on the way as Milliband plays for his place with the WEF .

Listing in USA would cheer me up .