The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Regarding only being allowed to purchase all outstanding CB's , not piecemeal . Having read the same line in the contract over the years i was also under that impression , however Hurricane have already purchased and cancelled $150m CB's in 2021 . Possibly they found the Loophole which allowed a 3rd party to purchase , as alluded to in RNS . The outstanding CB's will be paid off by 31st Jan and thereafter we can all move on .
Very important posts today regarding not selling on the cheap .If you can HOLD then Hold .
The opportunists who attempted to steal the company are moving to Plan B where a 30% Holding is being built and it's not Crystal Amber . Possibly Kerogen and a partner/s . They didn't go to all this trouble to walk away now, these people know Hurricane has significant value .
Many tree shakes will happen until CB's paid off and CEO and CFO replaced .
Kerogen know everything that's going on at Hurricane it's as leaky as the Houses of Parliament The Game is heating up ......... Stay Strong ......... Hold .
$90m free cash by July 31st on $80 Brent .
With today's announcement and after payment for January Tanker of 550k boe giving gross $42m , Hurricane will pay off CB'S around 31st Jan .
Hurricane will then sign an extension to AM contract .
Place a Plan for 2022 on the Table during February .
On production of around 9,500 boepd , with Brent around $80 and monthly total expenses of $8m . Hurricane will, without any unforeseen costs , have free cash of around $90m by July 31st 2022 .
3 Offloads , March , May and July . 55 Days between .
Quite Happy to compare my Projection v Maris at end of July .
Hang in thier SK .
Donnt need u going AWOL at this point .
Apologees for grama and speling .
Mr Frost springs to mind
Deputy Steve Baker .
HBR need to get pre Government Grab Buyback shares at 31st March and go forward with 600m Shares at £6 . Take out Market Liquidity and use BAT model to look after investors .
HBR have the Cash .
Take Neptune out year end .
Moved along with Great Haste second word OFF .
Does that clarify Red ?
Agree why send out a RNS that reads :
Its all great , But But , But , Don't forget the company may go ' T..s up .. blah blah
On or around 27th January 2022 we will have a clear RNS stating CB holders have been finally settled and have had a ' Sexual Departure ' .
Patience a little longer my compadre's .
Presently printing around 300m cash per month at these O&G prices .
With the above Cash plus $600m Cash carried from 2021 HBR should buy out 300m + Shares unlocked 31st March and cancel them .
Probably why SP is range bound .
As a Shareholder i would support this action .
HBR are knocking $50m per month off Debt and are still printing $300m per month Cash .
Educated Guesstimate
Free Cash 1st Dec 2021 $50m
Monthly Cash Burn all inclusive $8m
Dec + Jan $16m
Value of Load 550k boe approx 25th Jan 2022 > 550 x $80 boe = $44m )
$50m Fc - $16m + $44m = $78m Free Cash 27th January 2022 .
CB Debt = $80m .
By Jan 31st would see CB's settled and a $40m Overdraft facility in play, funding cost's until next tanker around April 5th .
With CB,s paid Forward plan probably announced February .
Nostradamus .
Ideally if HBR buy anything it should be Neptune for production and reserves . Only problem would be the price , with gas at an all time high unless a great deal leave it for downswing .
Personally HBR should forget any buys for 12 months and get the Debt down . Investing Capex in the Development of Asian Oil and Gas plays Andaman, Tuna , Timpan and Chim Sao are low cost , high return opportunities .
Forget Mexico .
We have Definitely made progress this year . For 18 months , all we heard about was Hurricane and it's Stakeholders ( read : convertible bond holders and bod ).
In the latest RNS , we Shareholders are mentioned for the first time in 18 months , the intention is to look after the Plebs as well . Marvellous !
We have just finally been recognised as Investors , rather than Chaff or collateral Damage .
Times they are a changing .... Not worried with Drop today more dirty tactics will be employed stay Strong .
On the way : After Jan 31st
AM Deal announced .
Investigation findings Announced with action plan on settlement or court proceedings .
A new CPR with full Disclosure on why previous 2 were inaccurate or not .
Reasons why Ceo and Cfo are leaving .
Forward Plan for 2022 with funding component .
Just a Thought .
Why has a company with no future prospects , been fought over tooth and nail for the Last 18 months ?
Have a Great Weekend , Hurricane is alive and 'Well' .
Personally i think we will not wait for July to pay off CB's this will be completed pre 31st Jan 2022 to close the Door finally
Every month around $9m comes off the cash pile for expenses , with this cost reducing each month as interest decreases with Buybacks . The January lifting around 25th will result 31/1/2022 in Hurricane at $70m free cash v $80m CB Debt . At $78 Brent .
A Final payoff of CB's will be around that date at the Latest .
Is the Investigation being used as leverage or kept for a future court case once CB's paid off ?
While production and Debt look manageable the following concerns with HBR's decision making are starting to concern me.
1. Dividend v Debt Reduction, wrong strategy should have been 2023 with Debt -$1.5m
2. Zama v Sea Lion , Wrong . Mexico has zero future on profits they will string HBR out .
3. Tolmount is this a deliberate strategy or just incompetence ?
4.Hedging programme 2021 and 2022 costing Billions . HBR seem Happy Why ?
One Positive : The Asia expansion , this could be the Game changer .
Having had PMO rip the ring out of Shareholders , was hoping that we had moved on from the Circus yet here we are again .
With the pace of repayments on CB'S , i wouldn't be surprised if CA and the new BOD are looking at removing the remaining $80m CB Debt this financial year . We are around $29m from payoff with $50m free cash although require $30m for for 3 months running costs .
Could a bridging Loan be the answer , to see off the CB's this Fin year ?
There are probably sound financial/ Tax reasons as well as the obvious control issues . Personally depending on the terms of a Short term loan would be very happy to clear the decks this December .
Hurricane set up with FPSO with production planned at 20k per day now still trading profitably at 10k boed with a new BOD in place .
500k+ boe capacity for an FPSO , will do the job to start with and Rkh can go from there
Happy with Debt management , chipping away in a way that previous BOD deliberately failed to do , costing Hurricane Shareholders Millions .
We are $30m away from covering CB's .
Forward Plan will only be announced when CB's removed as still have contractual control over certain aspects of Decisions required .
Once year end completed , Marais and Sidekick will be history unless enquiry requires them to participate . Looking positive for Shareholders steady as she goes .
Maybe a few more transactions like today peeling away the Debt at a slight discount during December . Some will wish to close books on their Hurricane CB and invest elsewhere in 2022 and with $100m in the bank we are in a good position 'for a change' , to negotiate .
Fellow Investors we need to be more like the Yanks .
They may offer millions of Dollars straight off the printing press for Hurricane . The gold backing up these 'Fresh' Dollars may or may not be in Fort Knox .
Hurricane can sell a field in return that 'may' have Billions of Barrels of Oil or 'may not ' .
Its a Deal just made for our Wolfe to get his teeth into .
The other party of interest in this 'Deal' is the party that tried to get 95% of the company for Nothing and they 'may ' or 'may not' have been Honest .
Very interesting times ahead .
Reckon the stand in Chairman would have had final say on 'Our Wolfe ' , from my Corporate wanderings that has always been the way .
Wolfe one of ours for sure and hopefully 'Hungry for A Deal ' .
Decided £1 is new Target after all this Pain . Show me the Money .