Member Info for Goldenbadger1

As previously

The Mexican Government and by extension Pemex cannot be Trusted unfortunately , the 50% ownership and operator control was an example of Govt interference . Pemex has zero money , so will be quite happy along with Mexican govt for Talos , Hbr and DS to finance project . Thereafter either Nationalising or Taxing as per UK .

Happy with delay and HBR now need to innovate a Mexican deal , that substantially reduces risk of capex and negates a NS style 75% tax grab .

Sell the fields to Slim let him provide capex with Pemex .

Put the money into South Asia or Norway .

Why give the market any news that may increase your Share price , if you are on a Buyback strategy ?

With this Shareprice the opportunity exists in 2024 to snap up 70m shares pre end March 2024 and a further 100m by year end .

Aim for average of £2.50 for 170m shares +- $500 m at these prices money well spent .

HBR are not paying Debt down in 2024 as zero Debt and with $100m from Vietnam sale , suck the oxygen out of the excess shares .

With 600m shares year end , the Divi for 2025 remaining at $200m will generate around 28p per share .

All while we wait for Indonesia to kick on .

I would say Lucky that the Self - sufficient argument for Energy was driven home by Covid where due to everything being now manufactured in the East an Emergency exposed the World to a Supply reality. Super profits were made .

Another example is Germany and its self destruction on Energy , where again unlike the French they did not keep or develop their own Energy .

Should Another Crisis happen the UK needs to be self-sufficient in Energy , Food , Medicine , Communications and Security or have the capacity to turn these on as required .

North Sea investment off the table for HBR , until the colours of the new Government are known .

Cannot believe the Stupidity of not being Energy self sufficient and the Security , Job and Financial self Destruction being pushed on the Great unwashed .

Continue Buybacks in 2024 as most efficient way of increasing Divi to Shareholders .

So far 156m shares at £3.14 per share so lets continue to reach optimum of 500m .

Try for last time .

HBR sell Mexico to Slim and crack on with Indonesia

Keep getting Silenced

Hopeful this next couple of weeks provide news on the following .

Update on completed drills Q3 . production 190k . improved Hedges .

Hbr announce another $200m buyback . Use Vietnam money

500m shares by end 2025 ideal , with zero interest on Debt and no buybacks in 2026, $300m divi realistic .

Hbr speed up Asia expansion Andaman , Natuna ect to 2026 production .

Sell Mexican interests as no stability for investment

2023 Tax year did not need an Acquisition , 2024 yes at the right price, buy outside the UK . Norway ?

Government Financial commitment to Acorn for ROI calculations .

UK government either 180 degree change on UK NS investment regime to encourage energy security , or go fully green and face the consequences 2024 election . UK Energy is cleaner and provides jobs thereby Tax revenue .

UK needs cheaper Energy for Industry and the man in the street .

HBR 2026 onwards Model based on Zero debt with strong cash flow . A 'New Model ' for Accountants and Investors .

That is the future for Harbour , no third party pulling the strings and a Pay as You Go methodology which differs from the old school of some debt is good .

Allows our Buybacks to continue at great pricing .

Agree with Mike 770m at end of period and hope another buyback plan to target - 700m year end .

End of 2025 500m Shares in issue i believe would be optimal .

North Sea fiasco should be clearer by then .

Boa ( how apt ) driven by Blackrock and Vanguard will be trying to stuff O&G companies until the fluidity of excess shares is stifled by buybacks . While they have shares in most Global top 500 companies, they have heavily weighted investments in Green Projects . Larry has O&G in his sights hold tight .

Unfortunately Pemex Mexico has not got the finance to kick start Zama which as stated previously maybe a blessing as the Mexican Government cannot be trusted .

If HBR are to go ahead in Mexico go with DEA and develop Kan independently of Pemex .

Mexico is High risk compared to Andaman , Vietnam ect , we can sit and wait for Pemex , Talos and DEA to make the running and limit our exposure as this could be another Venezuela .

Global politics are critical to the HBR business model .

Calculate another 18% in Smaller holders eg Helmsley Trust at 3.3%

So the 80/20 principle i believe with 20% small Pi's .

Significance is that a Talos Deal with Blackrock and Vanguard as significant holders could be waved through and i do not believe this to be in the Best interests of PI's .

As previously stated Drain the excess shares through Buybacks down to max 500m , accelerate to 1m per day and push Indonesia and Norway developement .

No good news is good for Buyback price IMHO .

Any Idea of PI % ?

EIG Shares 134 m % 16.75

BOA Shares 89 m % 11.11.

Merill Lynch 88m %10.9 .

Noble Group 80m % 10.0

GIC 62M % 8.0

JP Morgan 40m % 5.0.

Agree with around 770m shares when this Buyback Tranche is complete .

For Balance of 2023 with low share price being manipulated , fund 1m shares per day buyback below £3 per share .

Aim for a max of 700m shares in issue end 2023 with goal to be at 500m by end 2025 latest .

HBR should be signing Globally enforceable deals with Indonesia , Vietnam ect and selling up in Mexico as another Banana Republic in the making .

Looking at the numbers i believe Dividends are safe and growing with Buybacks . Year end probably similar to 2023 .

Conservative Government could leave a poison chalice for Labour by agreeing a Holistic 25 year plan with Industry . A plan that delivers , Net Zero by 2050 , UK energy self sufficiency , cheaper energy for citizens and Industry and starts most importantly within the next year . Lower pricing from 2024 - 2050 .......not starting in 2050 !

The above will also include legally binding agreements that support Energy Investment till 2050 .

A plan that sets out the timeframe , reasoning and delivery for all the above would be a challenge for Labour to throw out without a sound alternative .

The Public would hopefully demand answers to a change in the Agreed Strategy .

I think Clive Moffatt could be a sound resource for the Project if the Tories have the Backbone .

Zama and Kan are Honey Traps , all that will happen is Dea , Talos and HBR ,will plough expertise and Capex in and as soon as production is stable , Mexico will follow UK and place a Wealth Tax on all profits .

HBR should monetise fields to Carlos Slim pre any further expense .

Good move in Indonesia , maybe swap Russian share in Natuna for our Mexican Ops . Also a further reason not to touch Talos as also heavily involved in Mexico .

With 500m shares MAX in issue end 2025 latest , without needing any further buybacks the $300m saving can be released into the Divi pool . This will top up the $200m already projected annual Divi to $500m , $1 per share possible in 2026 ( Jam Tomorrow ) pretty much the BAT strategy used for unpopular products .

Also adding to the excess cash are huge savings on Interest payments from having little Debt . HBR 5 year loan also expires 2025 .

Not forgetting the above can be delivered while capex of $1.0b can be utilised in East Asia for profitable growth .Maybe a Singapore listing would be more supportive than UK or US .

With Neptune sold for $4.9B , 135K boepd net Debt $1.6b and 2P reserves of 552m boe

Value of Talos production 67k boepd net Debt $1.0b and 2P reserves of 190m .

Maximum value $2.0 B and buy not merge .

Should create duel listing opportunity and tax advantages .

At these prices Buybacks should be increased to 1m shares per day .

Yes so far Shareholders have gained very little from Buybacks and having lost heavily on PMO , Trust is in short supply . Having few alternatives HBR need to reduce shares to 500m and crack on with East Asia development .

The Tories are following WEF guidelines and killing O&G UK self sufficiency , at the average persons expense .

Labour will be even worse .

With both Tories and Labour incapable of producing a viable 5 10 or 15 year Viable Energy Plan that Delivers competitive predictable pricing for Industry , consumers and predictability for Investors like HBR , the UK is committing Economic suicide .

Reading the mood music Labour are now flip flopping on O&G Jobs and Strategy after union pressure and the realisation that many voters are not on board with net zero costs ect .

The spineless Tories will not rock the Boat pre -election , although both parties have now registered that they have effectively killed NS new investment through WT .

The solution for the country is a cross party 20 year Legally binding NS Investment Strategy that encompasses Investment , Taxation and Carbon Capture ROI , a holistic plan .

The above is Pivotal to UK Security , Industrial growth , cost of living crisis , Jobs and paying down Debt .

Rosebank is now front and centre . This Development/non Development is the Key and the next few months are going to be very interesting .

Just a Thought .

Agreed Sunak has his Green card and Hunt looking for one .

On HBR Strategy , Developing Asia this should be first priority as Malaysia , Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore will become new Eastern Tigers not forgetting India . We need to move faster on this front .

Mexico is corrupt and high risk would have preferred FI although can always return to FI when/if appropriate .

Getting shares in Issue to 500m by end 2025 (if still UK listed ) is a sound goal , after which with no buybacks required post 2025, a $500m annual dividend is possible .